620
FXUS62 KMLB 182346
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
746 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Mainly VFR expected thru 18z Friday, with the exception of
lingering VCTS near LEE thru 01-02z tonight. Southerly winds
become light overnight and remain around 5-10 kt Friday,
increasing 10-15 kt behind the east coast sea breeze. Coverage of
TSRA/SHRA may be slightly higher, beginning 17z-19z at coastal
terminals and gradually shifting inland thru at least 00z Sat.
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with gusty winds and freq
lightning Fri. afternoon. TEMPO groups will likely be needed in
future TAFs.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...Peak heat indices 102 to 106 this afternoon may increase up to
109 Friday and the weekend producing Major HeatRisk with pockets of
Extreme HeatRisk. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the
area...

Current-Tonight...Afternoon highs will realize L-M90s with peak
heat index readings 102 to 106F producing a Moderate to Major
HeatRisk over east central FL. Those spending extended periods of
time outdoors, are encouraged to remain well-hydrated and take
frequent breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building.
The low-level ridge axis remains draped across the central
peninsula. This will allow for ECSB to push slowly inland.
Winds will transition to ESE/SE along the coast and points further
inland as the sea breeze passes with speeds up to 10-15 mph at
times.

Moisture continues to gradually return across the area. As a result,
early convective initiation across the Treasure Coast with scattered
showers and isolated lightning storms with coverage and intensity
expected to increase into the afternoon. Activity will continue to
expand northward during the afternoon-early evening along the inland
moving sea breeze. The WCSB will push well inland with a higher
concentration of afternoon-evening convection across the east
central peninsula and generally W of I-95. Steering flow is out
of the S/SW at less than 5 mph, so there could be some erratic
movement with stronger boundary collisions, especially late in the
day. Primary storm threats remain frequent lightning strikes,
gusty winds up to 50 mph locally, torrential downpours leading to
minor/nuisance flooding. Convection will diminish thru mid-late
evening with clouds thinning overnight. Winds becoming
light/variable to calm, once again. Overnight lows continue warm
and humid in the M-U70s.

Fri-Wed...Previous...The ridge axis will remain nearly stationary
across the area Friday then lift slowly northward this weekend. The
ribbon of drier air will get mixed out and higher PWATs of 1.8 to 2"
return. Weaker flow aloft will continue to allow the development and
progression inland of the east coast sea breeze, with showers and
storms developing along it. The eventual sea breeze and additional
outflow boundary collisions across the interior will lead to
increasing coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon and early
evening. Model guidance indicates approach of deeper moisture from
the SE around the southern periphery of the Atlc ridge, possibly
assocd with a weak tropical wave. Such an influx of tropical
moisture should increase rain chances and potential for heavy rain
Mon-Tue. Have capped rain chances at 70%.

Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. With some
increase in humidity Fri-Sun, peak heat indices will have a
better chance to reach 108 to 109 in some spots which would
trigger a Heat Advisory. At a minimum, Moderate to Major HeatRisk
will continue each day with pockets of Extreme HeatRisk possible.
As clouds and rain chances increase early next week, the heat
risk will subside.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Through Monday...Low-level ridging continues across the local
waters, lifting northward slowly over the weekend and early next
week as it is undercut by a surge of moisture ahead of an
approaching weak tropical wave/inverted trough. Still generally
favorable boating conditions. Wind direction generally S/SW at
night/morning, backing SERLY each day with sea breeze formation
thru at least Fri, then staying more uniformly S/SE for the rest
of the extended. Wind speeds AOB 15 kts thru the period. Seas
mainly 2-3 ft, occasionally 4 ft offshore; and locally higher
invof lightning storms. ISOLD to SCT showers/storms will continue
to favor the evening and overnight-early morning hour periods. A
greater chance for shower and storm development during the daytime
hours will occur from Sat through Mon. Any storms that develop
may be capable of producing cloud-to-water lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  93 /  10  60  20  50
MCO  76  95  76  95 /  10  70  20  70
MLB  77  91  78  91 /  10  60  20  60
VRB  76  92  76  92 /  10  50  10  50
LEE  77  94  77  95 /  20  70  20  70
SFB  76  95  76  95 /  10  70  20  70
ORL  77  95  77  95 /  10  70  20  70
FPR  75  92  76  92 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Schaper