955
FXUS62 KMLB 190808
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
408 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Key Messages...

-Hot and humid conditions continue, with peak heat indices 103-107F
 today and potentially a little higher into the weekend.

-Some stronger storms each afternoon and evening will produce
 frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy
 rainfall up to 1-3 inches today and into the weekend.

Today-Tonight...The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain
across central Florida today, which will continue a light southerly
flow across the region. The east coast sea breeze will develop into
early afternoon, with a slightly earlier onset south of the Cape.
Deep moisture, with PW values around 2-2.2", will again lead to a
more active east coast sea breeze with showers and storms initially
developing along this boundary and lifting slowly N/NW along the
coast. Coverage of showers and storms will then increase across the
interior through the mid afternoon through early evening where sea
breeze and outflow boundary collisions are more likely to occur.
Rain chances range from 50 percent along the immediate coast from
the Cape southward to 60 percent along the northern coast of east
central FL and inland.

Forecast soundings indicate some lingering drier air aloft, with
DCAPE values 800-1000 J/kg, which may allow a few stronger storms
to develop, producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds
to 40-50 mph. Temps aloft remain relatively cool around -7 to -8C
at 500mb, so can`t completely rule out some small hail with any
stronger convection. Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will
also be possible with some of this activity as storm motion will
be rather slow toward the north around 10 mph today.

Highs in the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s over the interior
will combine with humid conditions to produce peak heat index values
around 103-107 for much of the area this afternoon. Increasing
convection and cloud cover through the afternoon will bring some
relief to the heat as the afternoon wears on.

Saturday-Sunday...Atlantic ridge axis remains across central Florida
into Saturday and then begins to shift a little farther northward
into the weekend. This will allow light southerly flow across the
area to become predominately southeast into Sunday. Moist airmass
remains in place to start the weekend, with PW values around 2-2.3"
on Saturday, but GFS is showing some drier mid-level air moving in
on Sunday, with PW values falling to 1.7-1.9". Scattered to numerous
showers and storms still forecast for tomorrow, with PoPs around 60
percent on Saturday. However, with the drier air and slightly
quicker inland movement of the east coast sea breeze on Sunday,
shower and storm chances drop to 40-50 percent along the coast and
50-60 percent inland. Some stronger storms will be possible each
day, producing strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3".

Hot and humid conditions persist into the weekend with ridge aloft
over the Atlantic extending westward across Florida. Highs will
continue to reach the low to mid 90s, and peak heat index values
will be around 105F but may reach up to 108-109F, which may prompt
Heat Advisories for portions of the area both Saturday and Sunday.
Overnight lows will continue to remain warm in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Ridge axis remains near to north of the area with
a wave of deeper tropical moisture pushing northwest into the region
early next week. PW values once again rise to 2+ inches Monday and
Tuesday, which should lead to higher coverage of afternoon/evening
showers and storms, and rain chances therefore increase to 60-70
percent. This deeper moisture then looks to shift out of the area
by mid-week, with a slight strengthening of southeast winds
Wednesday and Thursday. This should begin to focus greater
coverage of afternoon showers and storms across the interior. Have
PoPs falling to 50 percent along the coast and 60 percent inland
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will continue in the low to mid 90s,
but increase in clouds/rainfall and then drier air/earlier
development of the sea breeze should keep peak heat index values
just below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Today-Tonight...Boating conditions remain favorable to end the work
week. Ridge axis across the waters will maintain a southerly flow
around 5-10 knots this morning that will become SE 10-15 knots this
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland.
Winds will then remain 10-15 knots into tonight out of the S/SE.
Seas 2-3 feet.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to develop
and move northward over the waters, especially overnight and into
the morning hours. A few storms may be able to shift offshore,
mainly north of the Cape this afternoon and early evening.

Saturday-Tuesday...Atlantic ridge axis remains across the waters on
Saturday and then lifts slowly northward into early this week, with
boating conditions remaining generally favorable. Southerly winds 5-
10 knots in the morning, once again become southeast 10-15 knots
into the afternoon and evening on Saturday. Winds then remain more
predominately southeast into late weekend and early next week, with
speeds remaining below 15 knots. Seas remain 2-3 feet into the
weekend, and then may increase up to 4 feet offshore into early next
week.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be
possible into the weekend across the waters, with an increase in
this activity early next week as a wave of deeper moisture moves
into the region. Any storms that develop will be capable of
producing cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy
downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. A few showers
possible along the Treasure Coast overnight, though confidence is
too low to include VCSH at this time. Scattered showers and
storms are forecast once again this afternoon, beginning along the
Space and Treasure Coasts by around 18Z. Then, convection is
forecast to spread inland and northward through the afternoon (by
around 20Z), with TEMPOs included for brief CIG/VIS reductions.
Any convection is forecast to diminish in the evening hours,
clearing by 23-1Z. Southerly winds will become southeasterly
behind the sea breeze, remaining around 10kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  93  76 /  60  30  60  30
MCO  95  77  95  76 /  60  30  60  30
MLB  91  77  91  77 /  50  20  60  20
VRB  92  77  93  76 /  50  20  60  20
LEE  94  77  94  77 /  60  40  60  30
SFB  95  77  95  76 /  60  30  60  30
ORL  95  77  95  77 /  60  40  60  30
FPR  91  76  92  76 /  50  20  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy