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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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277 FXUS62 KMLB 301143 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 743 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 743 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Shower and isolated storm development will occur this morning along the Treasure Coast, especially with outflow boundary from storms over the coastal waters pushing westward toward KVRB and KFPR. So have added TEMPOs TSRA to start at these terminals. Otherwise, greatest potential for showers and storms producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly across the interior. No significant changes this TAF package, with tempo TSRA groups advertised at inland terminals around 19-23Z where rain chances are greatest. VCTS continues at coastal terminals this afternoon where convection may be a little more limited as east coast sea breeze initially develops and moves inland. Showers and storms will diminish into the evening hours, with some drier air then moving into the area overnight. Winds will be light and variable through early morning, with winds picking up slightly out of the NE by late morning and then out of the E/SE through the afternoon around 7-10 mph as sea breeze moves inland. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - 50% to 80% coverage of lightning storms today, highest near and west of Orlando to the Lake Okeechobee region. Threats include localized minor flooding, brief gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Turning hotter through the week, with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each afternoon. Increasing risk of heat-related health impacts from Independence Day into next weekend as high pressure settles over the state. - A 40% to 60% chance for showers and storms through midweek; storm coverage may lessen somewhat toward Independence Day and Friday. ---------Synoptic Overview---------- On this last day of June, anomalous mid-level ridging extends across the subtropics from the Desert Southwest to the SW Atlantic. Florida resides immediately south of its axis, and a weak disturbance will push across the state today within the easterly flow. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place over the next 72 hours, with PW values exceeding 2" at times. As a trough digs into the Northern Rockies early this week, heights will build across the Southeast U.S. and over Florida. This is forecast to steer Hurricane Beryl, currently east of Barbados, through the Caribbean Sea and to the south of Florida. More information on Beryl can be found at hurricanes.gov. Near the surface, the axis of high pressure will generally hold near or north of Central Florida through late this week before settling southward next weekend. Within this regime, there will be daily chances for showers and lightning storms. However, coverage may lessen later this week as the influence of the ridge is felt over Florida. This would also allow temperatures to turn hotter from the Independence holiday and into next weekend. -----Sensible Weather & Impacts----- Through Daybreak... The nearby disturbance is interacting with deep moisture to spark a few showers, mainly along the Treasure Coast, near Lake Okeechobee, and offshore. Farther north, clear skies, light winds, and near- saturation may lead to patchy fog over portions of Lake and Volusia Counties. Today & Tonight... With modest vorticity and deep moisture transiting the state, expect another round of scattered to numerous storms today. Coverage should range from 40-60% along the coast to over 70% near and west of Orlando to Indiantown, including Okeechobee. An earlier start to the showers and storms is on the table today, particularly for the Treasure Coast and Lake O region. Approx. 20 KT of deep-layer shear and abundant tropical moisture could result in somewhat more organized storms. Gusty winds to 40-50 MPH, frequent lightning, and a Marginal Risk (5%) of excessive rainfall leading to flooding of urban and poorly drained areas are the main threats. HREF members indicate a 10-15% chance of isolated 3"+ rain tallies around Greater Orlando today. Seasonably hot temperatures are forecast, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Peak heat indices will range from the upper 90s to around 105, hottest near and north of I-4. Monday - Wednesday... Southeasterly flow will tend to prevail with an embedded daily sea breeze. Near-to-above-normal available moisture will support a rinse- and-repeat pattern of daily scattered storms, with 40-50% coverage near the coast and 60-70% coverage over the interior, including Greater Orlando. Beach-goers will likely find quite a bit of dry time. Ridging looks to build across the state, so mid-level temperatures will increase through the period, leading to poorer lapse rates and somewhat less impressive storm cores. Fairly widespread low to mid 90s are forecast, with peak heat indices 102- 107F. Overnight lows will range in the mid 70s, except upper 70s over portions of Greater Orlando and the coast. Independence Day - Next Weekend... The global ensemble suite strongly suggests that deep-layer ridging will extend across the Sun Belt, with its axis potentially retreating southward toward Florida by next weekend. This should steer Hurricane Beryl on a WNW track through the Caribbean, well south of Florida. In this scenario, the primary concern appears to be a period of above-normal temperatures while many folks are outdoors. As H85 temperatures approach +20C, statistical guidance is indicating low/mid 90s Thu-Fri and more widespread mid 90s next weekend. As surface high pressure drifts southward, light southerly flow will begin to take shape, pumping in more muggy air (dew points in the mid 70s F). Heat indices may drift closer to our Heat Advisory criteria (108F), particularly next weekend. Our HeatRisk guidance is already reaching into the Major category along and north of Interstate 4. Storm chances during this period drop into the widely scattered range (35-55%), focusing over the interior most afternoons. A handful of ensemble members indicate some mid-level dry air may get kicked southward over the state, which may further limit storm chances on one or more days during this period. Subsidence and warm temperatures aloft will also tend to hinder sustained, deep convection through at least Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Today-Thursday... A ridge of high pressure will remain just north of the local Atlantic waters, with predominant southeast breezes from 5- 12 KT each day. Winds will turn offshore around 5 KT near the coast in the overnight hours. Seas generally 2 FT or less through Tuesday, then 2-3 FT on Wednesday & Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are possible each day, though there will be a lot of dry time. Offshore-moving storms appear unlikely. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will find a light to moderate chop each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 92 77 / 50 30 50 20 MCO 91 74 93 76 / 70 40 60 20 MLB 89 75 91 77 / 40 20 50 20 VRB 89 74 91 76 / 50 20 50 20 LEE 92 76 93 77 / 80 50 60 30 SFB 92 75 93 77 / 60 30 60 20 ORL 92 76 93 77 / 70 40 60 20 FPR 89 74 91 76 / 60 30 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Heil AVIATION...Weitlich