055
FXUS62 KMLB 291721
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
121 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are forecast outside of convection. Slightly slower
start to showers and storms today, with VCTS activity picking up
after 18-19Z. TEMPOs across the interior terminals from 19-22Z
for lowered CIGs down to FL035 and MVFR VIS due to TSRA. Would not
be surprised if CIGs drop to MVFR, but will amend as needed.
Lower confidence in coverage along the coast, so took out TEMPOs
at TIX and MLB with this package, and continued to leave them out
at the Treasure Coast terminals and DAB. Will continue to monitor
this and amend as necessary. Storm activity is forecast to
diminish around 23Z, with activity transitioning mainly to
showers. Showers are then expected to diminish overnight after
03Z, with winds becoming light and calm across all terminals.
Winds are forecast to pick back up out of the ENE at 5 to 10 knots
after 15Z tomorrow, with another afternoon of showers and storms
forecast after 18Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Early morning (10Z) Cape sounding shows precip water of 2.18" so
quite a moist profile especially in the mid and upper levels.
There is considerable mid and upper cloudiness assocd with this
moisture and is supported by some upper vorticity that will push
S/SW across the area during the day. The sounding also shows some
relatively drier air just above the sfc which should is initially
limiting the development of the diurnal cu field. But this drier
air will mix out with time and a healthy cu field will develop
during the afternoon. Weak pressure gradient producing light and
variable winds and this will allow the east coast sea breeze to
develop by early afternoon and push inland. Convective initiation
is expected just inland from the coast along the sea breeze with
the focus on the interior late in the day assocd with boundary
collisions. The upper support should produce a high coverage of
rain/storms over the interior with a few strong storms. Only
change to the forecast for today was to lower rain chances through
the morning over the Atlc and coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 456 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions expected with light
and somewhat variable winds this morning, becoming onshore this
afternoon around 5-10 knots as east coast sea breeze forms and
moves inland. Winds then veer southerly into tonight and remain
relatively light. Seas 1-2 feet.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop into the
afternoon, mainly inland, but still can`t rule out some of this
activity shifting back toward the coast and offshore. Additional
isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop over the
waters, especially across the gulf stream waters.

Sunday-Wednesday...Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain
across the area through late weekend into early next week,
maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable winds
expected again into Sunday morning, but then will become more
southerly into early this week. Winds will become onshore each
afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds 5-10 knots
on Sunday and increasing to around 10 knots Monday through
Wednesday. Seas around 2 feet, may increase to 2-3 feet by mid
week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be
possible over the coastal waters through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  92 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  75  91  74  92 /  50  70  20  60
MLB  75  89  75  90 /  40  50  20  40
VRB  75  89  74  90 /  50  60  20  40
LEE  76  92  76  92 /  50  70  30  60
SFB  75  92  75  92 /  40  60  20  50
ORL  76  91  76  92 /  50  60  20  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  50  60  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen