380
FXUS62 KMLB 171130
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Drier airmass across southern terminals will limit rain chances
from MLB to SUA today. Only a slight chance for a coastal shower
there thru 14Z. Scattered SHRA/TSRA development is still forecast
along and northwest of the I-4 corridor where greater moisture
will still exist. Continued VCTS mention in the TAFs from around
18z-00Z for KISM-KTIX northward and added TEMPO groups for MVFR
conds at MCO/SFB/DAB/LEE generally from 20Z-24Z. Light south wind
5 knots in the morning will become E/SE 10-14 knots behind the
inland moving east coast sea breeze. Convection will diminish by
02Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Highest coverage of showers and storms this afternoon will be
  near and north of the I-4 corridor as a pocket of drier air helps
  limit development further south.

- Shower and storm chances increase through the remainder of the
  week and into the weekend as moisture recovers.

- Peak heat indices 100 to 105 today will increase to 102 to 110
  Thursday and beyond. A return of Major HeatRisk is forecast for
  a majority of east central Florida starting Thursday and
  continuing into the weekend, with some areas near Orlando
  potentially reaching Extreme HeatRisk.

Current...The GOES 16 Total PWAT viewer is already showing a drier
pocket of air situating itself across the Treasure Coast,
Okeechobee County, and the adjacent Atlantic waters this morning.
For the moment, this drier air is likely not mixing down to the
surface quite yet, as some low-topped showers across the local
waters this morning are continuing to develop. This activity will
likely diminish over the next several hours as the drier air
continues to settle in. Winds remain light and variable to calm
this morning, with morning lows generally in the 70s.

Today-Tonight...The aforementioned drier air is forecast to
continue drifting northward across east central Florida today, and
will help limit convective development south of the Orlando metro
and the Cape. This is not to say low-topped showers and even a
stray storm or two can fully be ruled out, but it may be difficult
for showers and storms to sustain themselves in these areas. A
tight moisture gradient is forecast across east central Florida,
with higher PWATs expected to remain in place near and north of
the I-4 corridor. The sea breeze collision and any additional
boundary collisions are forecast to lead to increasing shower and
storm coverage across the interior this afternoon. Any storms that
develop may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes,
wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. Slow-moving
storms will continue to have the potential to quickly drop 1 to 3
inches of rain, which could lead to some localized flooding in
spots. Overall, activity across the interior is expected to
diminish into the overnight hours, with most activity likely
wrapping up around 8 PM. Overnight, mostly dry conditions are
expected, with skies becoming mostly clear and winds becoming
light and variable once again.

Afternoon temperatures today are forecast to reach the low to mid
90s once again. SLightly lower dewpoints as a result of the drier
air mass will keep peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 range, but
caution with the heat is still advised. Those spending extended
periods of time outdoors, both locals and visitors, are encouraged
to remain well hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or
in an air conditioned building. Overnight lows will remain
consistent, only falling into the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday-Tuesday...The area of high pressure will continue to
remain in place across the western Atlantic, with the ridge axis
extending across the Florida peninsula through the extended
period. The drier pocket of air present across portions of the
area today will quickly diminish into Thursday, with PWATs of 1.8
to 2" and greater expected to return locally. Weaker flow aloft
will continue to allow the development and progression inland of
the east coast sea breeze, with showers and storms developing
along it. The eventual sea breeze and additional outflow boundary
collisions across the interior will lead to increasing coverage of
showers and storms in the afternoon. Model guidance is indicating
the approach of an inverted trough in the mid levels Monday into
Tuesday, which could lead to some higher moisture and coverage of
showers and storms. Being that this is further out in time in the
forecast, and confidence in higher coverage at this time is still
on the lower side, decided to continue to cap PoPs at 60%. Will
continue to monitor trends as next week approaches. In general,
any activity that develops across the peninsula will diminish into
the overnight hours, with lingering showers and storms continuing
to be possible across the local Atlantic waters.

Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Peak heat
indices will continue to generally hit 100 to 107, with the
potential for a few spots to reach 108 to 110 late this week into
the weekend. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast to continue,
with some spots near the Greater Orlando area and Lake County
potentially reaching Extreme HeatRisk Friday through Sunday. This
means extra caution will need to be taken to prevent heat-related
illnesses. Hydration will continue to be key for both locals and
visitors alike, and breaks either in the shade or in an air
conditioned building should be taken if spending extended periods
of time outdoors.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
through at least Sunday as an area of high pressure remains in
place across the local Atlantic waters. Light and variable winds
will become more southeasterly each afternoon as a result of the
sea breeze, with wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots possible,
especially closer to the coast. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible today through
Thursday, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours,
with periods of mostly dry conditions during the daytime.
Increasing moisture locally will lead to a greater chance for
shower and storm development during the daytime hours from Friday
through Sunday. Any storms that develop may be capable of
producing cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy
downpours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
MCO  94  76  95  76 /  30  20  50  10
MLB  90  77  90  77 /  20  10  40  20
VRB  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  40  10
LEE  92  77  95  78 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  93  76  96  77 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  94  77  95  78 /  40  20  50  10
FPR  92  75  92  75 /  20  10  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly