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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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407 FXUS62 KMLB 131141 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 741 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue outside of convection. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop today, with some showers possible along the Treasure Coast terminals after 15Z. VCTS will be possible along the coastal terminals after 17Z along the sea breeze as it moves inland. A sea breeze collision later this afternoon will serve as the primary driver for convective development across the interior after 18Z, with TEMPOs for MVFR VIS/CIG due to TSRA added in with this package between 20-23Z. Activity is forecast to diminish after 03Z, with winds becoming light and variable to calm overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 523 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Above-normal temperatures are forecast today and into next week, with a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each afternoon. Those planning to be outdoors should take precautions to prevent heat- related illness. - Typical rainy-season weather pattern continues through next week, with the highest potential for showers and storms occurring west of Interstate 95. Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will build westward towards the eastern US coastline and across the Florida peninsula. Locally, winds will become south-southeast around 10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and move inland, backing the winds more onshore. Forecast soundings show the drier air that was present yesterday will subside slightly today, with the profile becoming more moist this afternoon along with PW values ranging from 2.0-2.3". This will support scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms forming this afternoon and early evening as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland. The highest coverage of storms (PoP 60-70 percent) will occur across the interior, especially across the western interior, where collisions between sea breezes and outflow boundaries are forecast to occur. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Warming trend will continue today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These warm temperatures coupled with higher humidity will produce peak heat indices of 105-107 degrees today. Be sure to plan ahead today and stay cool and hydrated! Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Sunday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to build westward across Florida and the Deep south. Locally, south to southeast winds will persist, with wind speeds generally around 10 mph or less. Similar to Saturday, the east coast sea breeze is forecast to form once again and push inland, backing the winds more onshore. Forecast soundings show a fairly moist profile, with PW values ranging from 1.8-2.2". This will continue to support scattered showers and lightning storms forming in the afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances (PoP 60-70 percent) will once again occur west of I-95 across the interior, especially the far western interior, due to forecast boundary collisions occurring there. Warming trend Continues on Sunday, so be sure to keep cool and hydrated! Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, under partly sunny skies. These warm temperatures coupled with higher humidity will result in peak heat indices ranging between 105-108 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. Monday-Friday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to build westward into the GOMEX and across the Deep south into mid-week. An upper level trough will dig down across the Deep South into Friday, causing the ridge axis over FL to shift slightly eastward. Locally, southeasterly flow will persist, with speeds around 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, backing the winds onshore and increasing the winds to 10-15 mph. Scattered showers and lightning storms expected each afternoon and early evening. The highest coverage of showers and storms through late week will focus across the interior, as well as along and north of the I-4 corridor, where boundary collisions between sea breezes and outflows are expected. Temperatures will continue the warming trend into mid-week, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These warm temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices between 105-108 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 523 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will build over the local waters today, causing the winds to become south- southeast, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland this afternoon, increasing winds to 10-15 KT. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, some storms could produce wind guests in excess of 34 KT and locally higher seas. Sunday-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions outside of convection expected through mid-week. South to southeast winds will persist through the time period, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, which will back the winds more east-southeast and increase the winds to 10- 15 KT. Seas 2-3ft, building to 2-4ft on Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible each afternoon and into early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 77 93 76 / 50 30 50 30 MCO 94 77 95 77 / 70 20 70 20 MLB 91 77 91 77 / 40 30 40 20 VRB 91 76 92 76 / 40 30 40 20 LEE 94 79 94 78 / 70 20 70 30 SFB 95 77 94 77 / 70 20 70 20 ORL 95 78 95 78 / 70 20 70 20 FPR 91 76 92 76 / 40 20 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Tollefsen