212
FXUS62 KMLB 150848
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
448 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast this
  afternoon near the I-4 corridor. Drier conditions across the
  Treasure Coast.

- Heat continues to be a concern across east central Florida, with
  a Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast for today. Actions to
  prevent heat-related illnesses should be taken.

- Slightly drier conditions mid-week will be short-lived, with
  increasing moisture forecast late this week into the weekend.

Current...Conditions are mostly dry and clear across the
peninsula this morning, with a few isolated showers present across
the local waters north of the Cape. A pocket of dry air as seen
on the GOES 16 Total PWAT viewer has drifted across the Treasure
Coast and adjacent local Atlantic waters, which will likely have
implications for today`s weather set-up. Winds remain light and
variable to calm, with morning lows remaining on track in the
mid to upper 70s.

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure across the Atlantic will
remain in place, with the ridge axis staying draped across
central Florida. The aforementioned drier pocket of air across the
Treasure Coast will help keep skies mostly clear, which will prompt
an early development of the east coast sea breeze down south. The
sea breeze will move inland quickly across this area, with the
drier air limiting shower and storm chances across the Treasure
Coast today (~30%). Across the remainder of east central Florida,
higher moisture will lead to building cloud coverage, resulting in
a slightly slower sea breeze development and subsequent push
inland. Once the sea breeze gets going further north though, PWATs
of 2" and greater will allow for greater coverage of showers and
storms. Similar to yesterday, the highest coverage is forecast
near the I-4 corridor (~60-70%) due to the eventual sea breeze
collision late this afternoon into the evening. Storms will be
capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40
to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. Weaker steering flow will result
in slow and potentially erratic moving storms, which could lead to
quick rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches in spots. This could
produce some localized flooding, especially in low-lying and
poorly drained urban areas. Showers may linger into the evening,
but most activity should be wrapping up before midnight.

Hate to sound like a broken record, but heat will continue to be a
concern across east central Florida today. Afternoon temperatures
will once again climb into the low to mid 90s, with peak heat
indices reaching 100 to 107. HeatRisk, a forecast that evaluates
whether there is an elevated risk of heat-related impacts, is
Moderate to Major across east central Florida today. In summary,
everyone should take action to prevent heat-related illness today,
including taking frequent breaks in the shade or in an air
conditioned building if spending extended periods of time outdoors
as well as remaining well hydrated. Warm conditions will persist
into the overnight hours, with lows only dropping into the mid to
upper 70s.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The area of high pressure will continue to
stay in place across the Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday, with
the ridge axis remaining draped across central Florida. However,
model guidance is indicating a pocket of drier air drifting across
the Atlantic and towards the Treasure Coast on Tuesday, and
eventually being advected more northward across portions of east
central Florida on Wednesday, particularly south of the Orlando
metro and the Cape. The GFS and Euro differ slightly on just how
dry things will get on Wednesday, with the GFS being the drier
solution of the two.

As a result, PoPs have been adjusted to account for this drier
air mass. On Tuesday, kept PoPs in the 20-40% range across the
local Atlantic waters and the Treasure Coast. Elsewhere, PoPs are
40-65%, with the highest coverage near the I-4 corridor. By
Wednesday, the drier air will cover a greater portion of east
central Florida, with 20-40% PoPs across areas south of the
Orlando metro and the Cape. Decided to keep higher PoPs (40-60%)
across the interior north and west of the I-4 corridor based on
model guidance showing a rather tight moisture gradient, but would
not be surprised if this is adjusted as more data comes in. The
development of the east coast sea breeze will continue to drive
convective development, with an eventual collision across the
interior leading to increasing coverage in the late afternoon into
early evening time period. Storms will be capable of producing
lightning, wind gusts, and heavy downpours. Activity will
diminish into the overnight hours, with limited development across
the local waters.

Temperatures will continue to climb into the low to mid 90s, with
Wednesday potentially being the warmest day thanks to the drier
airmass leading to reduced cloud coverage locally. Overnight lows
will remain fairly consistent in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday-Sunday...The area of high pressure across the Atlantic is
forecast to shift back towards the Florida peninsula starting
Thursday, and will continue shifting westward into the weekend.
Increasing moisture locally will lead to increasing rain and storm
chances across east central Florida, with the development of the
east coast sea breeze, movement inland, and eventual sea breeze
collision being the main forcing mechanism driving convective
development each afternoon. Activity will tend to diminish into
the overnight hours across the peninsula, with continued
development across the local waters possible. Temperatures will
remain fairly consistent, with highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure remains in
place this week. Winds are expected to remain light at 5 to 10
knots out of the southwest north of the Cape and out of the
southeast south of the Cape, becoming east-southeast at 10 to 15
knots each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland.
Seas will remain between 2 to 3 feet across a majority of the
local waters, with 4 foot seas across the far offshore waters
through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms cannot
fully be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters through the
entire period. Any storms that do develop may be capable of
producing lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Some drier air is moving in from the east across the Treasure
Coast region. Earlier onset of the sea breeze from KVRB-KSUA and
the drier air should limit any shower/storm development at these
terminals through the TAF period. However, scattered to numerous
SHRA/TSRA should develop along the inland moving sea breeze
boundaries and any collisions across the interior through the
afternoon/early evening hours. CAMs show convective initiation
just inland from the Cape in the early afternoon so have added
TEMPO groups for MVFR conds in TSRA starting off at TIX at
18Z-21Z, DAB 19Z-22Z...then 20Z-23Z SFB/MCO and 21Z-24Z LEE. May
need to add a convective wind gust to some of these TEMPOs.
Maintained VCTS at MLB. Lingering VCSH across interior and
northern terminals 00Z-02Z or so then a quiet/VFR overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  76 /  60  50  60  20
MCO  94  77  95  76 /  60  50  60  10
MLB  91  77  90  76 /  40  20  40  10
VRB  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
LEE  93  78  94  78 /  70  60  70  20
SFB  94  77  95  76 /  60  50  60  20
ORL  95  78  95  77 /  60  50  60  20
FPR  91  75  92  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly