948
FXUS62 KMLB 160153
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
953 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Light rain from previous convection along the I-4 corridor will
diminish by late evening, as will lingering shower/isolated storm
activity across southern Osceola and northern Okeechobee counties.
Mostly dry conditions then expected overnight, except for along
the Treasure Coast where isolated onshore moving showers will
continue to be possible overnight. Additional isolated showers and
storms may continue to develop over the gulf stream waters after
midnight through early morning Tuesday. Similar to last night,
interior locations that saw the greatest coverage of showers and
storms, as well as Volusia County will see temps remain fairly
steady in the mid to upper 70s for the reminder of the night.
Farther south across Okeechobee County and along much of the
coast temps are currently in the low to mid 80s, but will see
these values drop to the mid to upper 70s as well overnight.
Debris cloud cover will gradually fade with skies becoming mostly
clear to partly cloudy late tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Storms have largely diminished across the interior, leaving some
lingering light debris cloud rainfall across the I-4 corridor this
evening. Some embedded lightning strikes from this activity is
still possible through 02Z. Localized moderate rain may produce
visibility to 3-5SM, but otherwise VFR conditions generally
expected, with visibility 6SM or greater.

Similar setup tomorrow, with drier air near to south of KMLB and
faster inland movement of the east coast sea breeze keeping rain
chances limited from KMLB-KSUA. Isolated showers and storms may
develop near KTIX-KDAB as east coast sea breeze forms early
afternoon, but greatest convective coverage will be across inland
TAF sites, around 19-00Z, as sea breeze moves inland and where
boundary interactions are more likely. Have VCTS wording for now
to cover this potential, but tempo groups will again likely need
to be added with the next TAF package.

Winds generally light and variable overnight, becoming southerly
around 5-6 knots in the morning, and then E/SE 8-10 knots as the
sea breeze develops and moves inland during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Boating conditions remain favorable over the next few days. As high
pressure holds sway, light southerly winds at night turn SE during
the day, increasing to 10-15 KT, especially near the coast with the
sea breeze. There is a 20-40% chance for showers and isolated
storms, primarily during the overnight and morning hours. Seas
generally 2-3 FT, occasionally up to 4 FT beyond 40 NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  75  94 /  40  60  10  50
MCO  76  95  76  96 /  50  70  20  40
MLB  76  90  76  91 /  20  30  10  20
VRB  76  92  75  92 /  20  20   0  20
LEE  77  95  77  94 /  20  70  30  60
SFB  76  95  76  95 /  50  70  20  50
ORL  77  95  77  95 /  50  70  20  40
FPR  76  92  75  91 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich