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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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497 FXUS62 KMLB 161119 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 719 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 740 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Isold SHRA lifting north this morning may affect KSUA-KVRB. Then Isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop near KTIX-KDAB as east coast sea breeze forms in the early afternoon, while greatest convective coverage will be across inland TAF sites, around 19-00Z, as sea breeze moves inland and where boundary interactions are more likely. Maintained VCTS at MLB and added TEMPO groups for MVFR conds in TSRA at DAB/TIX/MCO/SFB/LEE from 20Z-23Z. Winds becoming S to SE 5-6 knots after sunrise backing E/SE around 10 knots behind the sea breeze aft 16Z at coastal terminals. Diurnal convection should diminish by 02-03Z followed by a quiet/VFR overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Key Messages: - Another day of showers and storms, with the highest coverage across the interior. Storms will be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Localized flooding will be possible. - Heat remains a concern through the extended period due to above normal temperatures, with peak heat indices ranging from 102 to 110 over the next several days. - Increasing moisture late this week and into the weekend across the peninsula will keep coverage of showers and storms high across the interior. Today-Tonight...The persistent weather pattern continues across east central Florida. An area of high pressure across the western Atlantic will remain in place, with the ridge axis staying draped across central Florida. The east coast sea breeze will develop this afternoon and push inland, with an eventual collision across the interior leading to increasing shower and storm coverage. Similar to yesterday, the highest coverage is forecast near the I-4 corridor (~60 to 70 percent). Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. Weaker steering flow will result in slow and potentially erratic moving storms, which could lead to quick rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches in spots. This could produce some localized flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Activity will likely diminish after 8 PM, with any lingering showers diminishing before midnight. Heat continues to be a concern across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices reaching 100 to 107. HeatRisk, a forecast that evaluates whether there is an elevated risk of heat-related impacts, is Moderate to Major across east central Florida today. In summary, everyone should continue to take action to prevent heat-related illness, including taking frequent breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building if spending extended periods of time outdoors as well as remaining well hydrated. Warm and muggy conditions will persist into the overnight hours, with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday...A band of drier air is forecast to drift across east central Florida on Wednesday, with an area of high pressure remaining in place across the western Atlantic. This drier air is expected to limit shower and storm development as a result, particularly across areas south of the Orlando metro and Cape Canaveral. There continues to be model discrepancy in just how dried out these areas will get, so still kept in a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and storms across the southernmost areas of the forecast area, with higher chances forecast near and north of the I-4 corridor where the greatest moisture is expected. The main mechanism behind shower and storm development will be the east coast sea breeze and its progression inland, with a collision near the I-4 corridor leading to increasing development later in the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Activity across the interior will diminish into the overnight hours. Temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s will combine with humidity to produce peak heat indices in the 100 to 107 range, though slightly lower dewpoints due to the drier air may help to reduce heat indices slightly. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will remain in place across east central Florida, so continued caution will be needed if spending extended periods of times outdoors. Overnight lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday-Monday...High pressure across the western Atlantic will remain in place and be the main influence across the Florida peninsula. Moisture is forecast to recover across east central Florida, leading to increasing rain and storm chances each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland, with an eventual collision across the interior producing the highest coverage. This pattern is expected to continue late this week into early next week. Activity will diminish into the overnight hours across the peninsula, with lingering showers and storms remaining possible across the local waters each night. Heat will remain a concern, with temperatures appearing to peak on Thursday and Friday afternoon in the mid to upper 90s and dropping back into the low to mid 90s this weekend through Monday. These temperatures will combine with humidity to produce peak heat indices in the 102 to 110 range. Additionally, HeatRisk is expected to become Extreme across portions of Lake, Orange, and Seminole counties Thursday through Saturday, with Moderate to Major impacts elsewhere and on Sunday and Monday. This means extra caution will need to be taken to prevent heat-related illnesses, and time outside will potentially need to be limited. Little relief will be granted during the overnight hours, with conditions remaining warm and muggy thanks to lows only dropping into the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure remains in place across the western Atlantic. Winds will remain between 5 to 10 knots out of the south, becoming slightly stronger at 10 to 15 knots out of the southeast as the sea breeze develops. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local waters through the period, primarily during the late evening and overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 75 93 76 / 60 30 40 10 MCO 94 76 95 77 / 70 30 40 10 MLB 90 76 91 78 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 92 75 92 76 / 30 10 20 10 LEE 94 77 94 78 / 70 30 60 10 SFB 94 76 95 77 / 70 30 40 10 ORL 94 77 95 78 / 70 30 40 10 FPR 92 74 92 76 / 30 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Kelly