Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
300 FXUS63 KMKX 160837 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Potential exists for small hail and gusty winds with any storms. Heavy rain at times until early this evening. - Breezy conditions from tonight through this weekend across southern Wisconsin behind a cold front. - Cool temperatures this weekend into early Monday, then a gradual warmup. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Today and Tonight: First, any ground fog should dissipate by 9 AM. Surface front will move through southern Wisconsin today and it will be a focus for convection by mid afternoon. MCAPE will linger, as best moisture convergence shifts east by early this evening. Most locations will not avoid rain, and most of the rainfall should occur between 21Z and 01Z (Sat). The storms should move rather quickly to the southeast during this time frame. Instability parameters also support potential for small hail until early this evening. Severe thunderstorm potential looks minimal (less than 20%) at this time. Otherwise, storms will be out of the forecast area by mid to late evening, but models hold onto the low level moisture. Thinking is that it will remain mostly cloudy tonight with a breezy northwest wind. KPL && .LONG TERM... Issued 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Saturday through Thursday: Mid and upper level low will sit over the Great Lakes Saturday into Saturday night with cyclonic flow over Wisconsin. Although the best surface features will be well south and east of the forecast area by this time, there will still be scattered showers (30-50%) and a few thunderstorms possible by Saturday afternoon. Aiding these showers will be decent mid level lapse rates with colder air lingering aloft. Thinking now that any convective elements will diminish later Saturday evening with gradual clearing over southern Wisconsin. Saturday night will be cool and breezy. Synoptic scale pattern then begins to change on Sunday with heights building aloft. Still could have a buildup of convection by Sunday afternoon, but expecting little or no rain at this time. If anything, will keep low PoPs along the lakeshore to the open waters of Lake Michigan. Otherwise, another cool night on Sunday with mostly clear skies. The remainder of the extended forecast period looks pretty straightforward with dry, northwest flow aloft and gradually warming temperatures (near normal). This benign weather pattern with surface high pressure should continue into Wednesday and Thursday. KPL && .AVIATION... Issued 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 IFR conditions to persist early this morning due to low ceilings and areas of fog across southern Wisconsin. Expecting visuals to quickly improve to VFR by 14Z with sunshine prevailing into the early afternoon hours. Conditions to then turn into more MVFR from 21Z to 02Z (Sat), as scattered thunderstorms develop and move to the east. Small hail and brief gusty surface winds are possible with any storms. After the rain and thunderstorms, breezy winds from the northwest continue overnight into Saturday. KPL && .MARINE... Issued 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Low pressure near 29.6 inches over northern Wisconsin into northern Michigan will hold most of today before pressure rises begin later tonight behind a cold front. The low pressure will also bring scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening to most of Lake Michigan. Heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected with any storms. Winds will also shift and become north to northwest tonight into Saturday. A larger scale low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep the weather unsettled through Saturday evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy northerly winds will also continue. These winds will gradually weaken early next week as high pressure arrives over the lake on Monday. It will also be dry to start off the new week. KPL && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 7 AM Friday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee