786
FXUS63 KMKX 161912
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
212 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon with the main
  window from 20Z-02Z. Small hail and gusty winds expected but
  a few severe thunderstorms are possible.

- Showers likely with scattered storms for Sat as a cold front
  moves through S WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 147 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Tonight through Sunday:

MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG is present this afternoon with sct
shower and storm development underway. A well organized
shortwave trough approaching sw WI will move across srn WI into
the early evening. Numerous showers and storms are expected to
develop with the the main window from 20Z-02Z as depicted on
the HREF. The effective shear will remain 20-25 kts this
afternoon but still enough for storm maintenance and
organization, thus cannot rule out a few SVR storms with large
hail and damaging winds.

The sfc low will move across Lake MI this evening reaching srn
Lake Huron by 00Z Sun. Its cold front and another vorticity
maximum will move through srn WI on Sat. 50-70 percent chances
for showers and storms are forecast for ern WI with lesser
chances to the west. 500 mb heights will then be rising Sat nt-
Sun bringing a return of some sunshine for Sun, but still a
slight chance for a shower over sern WI. Temperatures will
remain near normal for this period.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 147 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Monday through Friday:

An upper ridge will prevail over the central and srn Rockies
and the high plains through the week. Sfc high pressure will
remain in the vicinity of WI during this period. Pleasant and
dry summer weather is expected. Temperatures will be near or
slightly below normal.


Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 147 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Sct-bkn035-040 cumulus this afternoon. Numerous showers and
storms expected from 21Z-02Z. Low Cigs of 600-1900 feet
developing from west to east across S WI this evening. The low
Cigs will continue through Sat AM then MVFR Cigs for the early
afternoon becoming sct-bkn035. Scattered showers and storms
expected for Sat.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 147 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Low pressure near 29.7 inches over northwest Wisconsin will
slowly move across northern Wisconsin this afternoon and tonight,
and to southern Lake Huron by the end of Saturday. Modest south
winds today will become westerly late this evening for the south
half, and variable winds for the north half. The winds will then
transition to breezy north to northwest winds for the weekend. The
winds will gradually weaken early next week as high pressure
arrives over the lake by Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms can be
expected over the lake today into Saturday evening.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Sunday afternoon and night
from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor due to breezy north winds and
high waves.


Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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