Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
553 FXUS63 KMKX 110205 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal waterspout potential remains possible over the northern third of Lake Michigan overnight. - Outside of low chances (20%) of showers across southwestern WI on Monday, the forecast remains mostly dry until the latter half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 904 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Winds decoupled quickly after sunset this evening, despite a weak shortwave trough swinging across Wisconsin. The forecast for tonight with lows in the lower 50s inland from Lake Michigan is on track. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 340 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: The low to our north will continue its slow march eastward this afternoon into Sunday. Breezy winds will continue into this evening before the boundary layer is able to decouple. Overnight, the pressure gradient associated with the low will also shift northeast such that winds on Sunday will be lighter than they have been the last couple days. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s under clearing skies, but will be warmer near Lake Michigan, generally in the upper 50s due to the warmer waters moderating the temperature. Upper level ridging and a surface high currently over the Central Plains will build into the Midwest on Sunday, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s as broad subsidence and mostly sunny skies will be in place over southern Wisconsin. Falkinham && .LONG TERM... Issued 340 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Monday through Saturday: Models continue to depict a weak 500hPa shortwave trough and associated vorticity traversing the Midwest over the upper ridge late Sunday night into Monday while a surface boundary sets up to our southwest across southern Iowa and central Illinois. These features combined with 850hpa WAA and the nose of a low level jet should allow for precipitation development along the surface boundary. Dependent on where the boundary sets up, this development may clip our southwestern and southern counties on Monday (20%). Thinking that any development that does make it into southern Wisconsin will be showers given a lack of instability, but there still appears to be a lot of dry air in place over southern Wisconsin that will need to be overcome. Upper level ridging then takes hold again over the area, allowing for dry and warming conditions for the middle of next week. The next chance for precipitation looks to be Thursday as a baroclinic zone looks to move into the Midwest. However, there is quite a bit of discrepancy between the models with this system, so have left broad PoPs for the time being. Falkinham && .AVIATION... Issued 904 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Winds decoupled quickly with sunset this evening, and skies are also clearing. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will be lighter and out of the west on Sunday as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Few/Scattered diurnal cumulus should develop again on Sunday. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 904 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Winds will decrease overnight into Sunday as the tighter pressure gradient relaxes and shifts northeastward with the low. Showers/thunderstorms and waterspouts remain possible overnight, primarily over the northern third of Lake Michigan, as cooler air is ushered over the warmer lake. The potential for these hazards is expected to end Sunday as the low`s influence over the lake decreases. High pressure of 30.2 inches then builds into the Great Lakes region on Sunday bringing dry weather and lighter winds persisting through the midweek. Falkinham/Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee