Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
333 FXUS63 KMKX 110809 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 309 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - No hazardous weather expected through the start of the week. - Outside of very low chances (<20%) of showers across southwestern WI on Monday, the forecast remains mostly dry until the later half of the week when the pattern becomes more active. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 306 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Today through Monday: As the 500 mb low slides further northeastward, upper-level ridge begins to back fill in its place across the central CONUS with high pressure building over the Midwest. This will bring a quiet stretch of weather today through the start of the week. Will see light winds and gradually warming temps as surface high pressure slowly works its way over the area through Monday. Looking at daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s today into Monday with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Models continue to pick up on a mid-level shortwave trough undercutting the upper-level ridge with the impulse tracking along and just north of the Missouri River Valley on Monday before diffusing as it pushes into the eastern Cornbelt. There continues to be a low potential (<20%) for some of the associated showers with this system to push into southwestern WI generally southwest of I-90 corridor, but any shower activity will have to compete with surface subsidence and a dry airmass. Given the trend on the 00z CAMs, think the dry air will win out across our southwestern CWA and Monday will be dry. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 306 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Monday night through Saturday: High pressure and upper-level ridge will persist over the region into Tuesday, but will begin to slowly shift more east. This will lend way to the return of southerly flow and temps climbing back to normal around 80F. Mid-range models show the ridge beginning to break down and the pattern turning more active for the second half of the week as more moisture gradually advects into the southern WI. There looks to be a potential for some showers on Wednesday as low- level WAA lifts in from the west. Then long range models prog a trough to deepen over the central CONUS toward the end of the week and potentially cutting off over the Great Lakes through the weekend. With this pattern, there would be daily rain and thunderstorm chances until the system exits the Great Lakes region. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 306 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions with light westerly winds will prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the region. Could see some mid-level scattered diurnally driven cumulus develop this afternoon. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 306 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure over the mid-Mississippi River Valley this morning will slowly meander eastward into the Great Lakes region through the first half of the week. This will bring lighter and more variable winds to Lake Michigan through midweek before turning more southerly and increasing for the second half of the week as the pattern becomes more active. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee