065
FXUS63 KMKX 130159 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
859 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms (30 to 80%) from
  Wednesday night into this weekend. Highest chances (60 to 80%)
  for rainfall are Thursday / Thursday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 859 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There are still some showers that continue to slowly shift
southward into far northern portions of the area, which should
continue to gradually weaken over the next few hours. The main
low level confluent area to the north will remain there tonight.
The thunder risk has gone away with the loss of daytime
heating and resultant instability. Look for these showers to
dissipate by midnight or so.

Clearing skies and light winds with high pressure should allow
for valley/ground fog in the typical low-lying areas overnight
into early Tuesday morning. Lows tonight should not get any
lower than the minimum dew points from today, so not expecting
more widespread fog at this time.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

An axis of agitated cumulus clouds is evident across northern WI
at the moment, with isolated shower and weak thunderstorm
activity. Thus, areas in east-central WI still have a 15 to 20%
chance for a shower or weak / brief storm this afternoon and
evening. Storm chances and cumulus clouds will break down this
evening, leaving skies mostly clear for late tonight. Forecast
soundings are quite dry for the overnight hours tonight aside
from some lingering moisture at the top of the residual layer
and perhaps just enough moisture aloft for some cirrus,
suggesting good sky viewing conditions tonight.

Daytime highs climb 1 to 3 degrees higher on Tuesday (to the
low 80s), and with water temperatures in the low to mid 70s, a
weak lake breeze will likely develop and move about 1 county
inland. Said areas are under a roughly 10% chance for a shower
or weak thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. Once again, shear and
instability are too weak for organized / strong storms.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

Dry and pleasant weather continues into Wednesday, with
temperatures similar to Tuesday and a synoptic southeasterly
breeze developing ahead of a low pressure system, moving in from
the Great Plains. Strong WAA and moist advection ahead of the
approaching low bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm
chances begin Wednesday night into Thursday night, with chances
continuing into the weekend as the low departs eastward. Main
window for the highest rain chances (60 to 80%) is Thursday
through Thursday night. It is too early to diagnose the severe
potential of this setup, but a soaking rain appears likely. The
early Thursday AM arrival of the system will likely limit the
available CAPE.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 859 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There are still some showers that continue to slowly shift
southward into far northern portions of the area, which should
continue to gradually weaken over the next few hours. These may
clip the Sheboygan terminal. The thunder risk has gone away
with the loss of daytime heating.

Clearing skies and light winds with high pressure should allow
for valley/ground fog in the typical low-lying areas overnight
into early Tuesday morning. Not expecting more widespread fog
at this time.

Light and variable winds linger into Tuesday, as high pressure
slowly moves east. A southeast lake breeze is expected by early
Tuesday afternoon at terminals near the lake, and should push
inland a county-length or two. Diurnal cumulus clouds with
bases around 5000 feet AGL are anticipated by the afternoon. A
stray shower or storm may get close to the Sheboygan terminal
later in the afternoon.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 859 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High pressure around 30.0 inches will continue to move eastward
through Tuesday, allowing for light and variable winds. Winds
will become east to southeasterly and increase on Wednesday, as
low pressure around 29.7 inches develops across the Central
Plains. The low should shift northeast and move through the
region on Thursday and Friday, while deepening to around 29.5
inches. Shower and thunderstorm chances exist across Lake
Michigan on Thursday and Friday. West to north winds are
expected this weekend, as the low departs eastward.

Wood/Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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