271
FXUS63 KMKX 110756
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
256 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (20% chance) showers and storms this afternoon.

- Increasing confidence for above average temperatures this
  weekend into early next week, along with additional chances
  for showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 256 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Today through Friday:

An upper level trough will slow rotate east through the region
today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning
over north central Illinois may try to push into extreme
southern Wisconsin this morning, with additional chances for
very widely scattered thunderstorms across central Wisconsin,
and along the lake breeze, this afternoon. The vast majority of
the area will remain dry.

Highs today will be in the low 80s, with lows tonight in the
60s.

Dry weather is expected Friday, with slightly warmer
temperatures in the mid 80s.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 256 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Weak high pressure will push east of the area Friday night into
Saturday, with a warm front lifting north through the area
Saturday. Aloft, several mid level disturbances will traverse
the baroclinic zone during this time, with the potential for
scattered thunderstorms on Saturday. A few storms could be
strong to severe Saturday. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to
upper 80s.

The warmest temperatures are expected Sunday, with highs in the
low 90s. Heat index values will be between 95 and 100 degrees. A
more organized thunderstorm threat is possible Sunday, depending
on the exact placement and timing of a complex of thunderstorms
that is expected to develop over portions of Minnesota.
Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday, but
confidence is very low in the details at this distance.

Extended guidance is in reasonable agreement in bringing a cold
front through the area sometime in the Tuesday or Wednesday
timeframe, but with a wide range in timing. Once this front
passes through the area, cooler and drier air will build into
the region, ending the storm threat.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 256 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail today, with just a very low chance
for a brief shower or thunderstorm at the inland terminals this
afternoon. Winds will be light from the east and northeast, with
an increase in speeds late morning and early afternoon for
locations closer to the lake, as a lake breeze pushes westward.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 256 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Light winds are expected across the lake today and tomorrow as a
broad area of high pressure builds into the area. Winds then
turn southerly Saturday and Sunday with several rounds of
thunderstorms possible.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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