Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
171 FXUS63 KMKX 172024 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 324 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with more coverage toward the lakeshore areas. Storms that develop may be capable of producing localized heavy rain. - Gusty winds and elevated waves will bring a moderate to high swim risk to lakeshore counties Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties for this time frame due to waves of 3 to 5 feet. - High pressure will return by Tuesday and bring a period of drier weather. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 324 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: Shortwave propagating southward along the Lake Michigan shoreline will continue to produce scattered showers through the evening hours. Showers have struggled so far to develop tall enough to produce widespread lightning. Current thinking is that isolated lightning bolts will be the main concern, while the concern for locally heavy rain exists under stronger cells. Shortwave will exit into tonight and shower and thunderstorm chances will drop off thereafter. Expect overnight lows in the lower 60s. Northerly winds increase and become gusty tonight into Sunday as low pressure exits and high pressure builds into the northern Plains. This may allow lake-effect rain showers to develop overnight and serve to enhance cloud cover over lakeshore counties overnight into Sunday, as well as to bring chances for an isolated shower in the afternoon hours Sunday. Aside from this concern, dry weather and largely sunny skies are expected Sunday, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Weaker winds in southwestern Wisconsin will lead to highs in the lower 80s. With these gusty conditions, moderate to high swim risk conditions will develop Sunday morning and continue through Monday evening. Moderate swim risk is expected in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties, with high swim risk in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday evening for Milwaukee through Kenosha County. Winds remain northerly but become less gusty overnight Sunday, bringing in cooler air and lows in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 324 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Monday through Saturday: High pressure continues to build into the northern Plains on Monday, shifting winds to northeasterly, although conditions will remain gusty. Winds slowly diminish Monday through Tuesday as high pressure becomes dominant over the Upper Midwest. High pressure remains dominant through at least Thursday, but a few showers and thunderstorms may develop Friday into the weekend as a weak trough drops through Ontario into the Upper Midwest. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 324 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Cloud cover has temporarily broken up in many places for the afternoon hours, allowing for on and off MVFR to VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered showers are still expected along lakeshore terminals, but the lightning threat has decreased. MVFR to VFR conditions continue into this evening, with lower cloud decks developing once again overnight. Generally expecting bases around 1500 ft, although regions near Sheboygan may see IFR ceilings near 800 ft behind a departing shortwave. Ceilings improve into Sunday morning, but northwesterly breezes turn northerly and become gusty during the same time frame. Northerly gusts of 15 to 20 kt are expected through the day Sunday. MH && .MARINE... Issued 324 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Low pressure is centered over southern Lake Huron, with isolated thunderstorms possible over Lake Michigan through this evening behind the departing low. The southern half has a better chance of seeing thunderstorms. Northwesterly winds this afternoon will shift northerly late this evening into tonight, and will increase as high pressure builds across Minnesota. Northerly winds may gust near 30 kt at times Sunday into Sunday night. In the nearshore regions, gusts to 25 kt will be frequent. Combined with elevated wave conditions, conditions will be dangerous for small craft. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory has been issued and is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon and evening in nearshore regions. Winds will gradually weaken Monday evening through Tuesday as the aforementioned high pressure builds into Wisconsin and Lake Michigan. High pressure remains dominant through Thursday, leading to light southerly winds. MH && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...10 AM Sunday to 10 PM Monday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Sunday to 10 PM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee