Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
676 FXUS63 KMKX 070757 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning and afternoon, continuing into tonight. - Continued near daily chances (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms through the middle to end of the week. - Increasing potential for above average temperatures heading into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today through Monday: Showers and thunderstorms will gradually push into south central Wisconsin early this morning, associated with a shortwave/remnant MCV moving in from Iowa. This activity may become more scattered in nature by late morning and early afternoon as it progresses eastward into a drier environment. It seems probable that we will see a decrease in rain/thunderstorm coverage later this afternoon, before activity expands in coverage this evening and tonight as increased flow at 850 MB provides enhanced ascent across the region. Overall, expect showers and storms to remain fairly unorganized and scattered in nature through tonight. Shortwave energy will continue to move across the region on Monday, as a very weak front approaches from the west. This will serve as a focus for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Monday night through Saturday: By Tuesday, the remains of TS Beryl are expected to be lifting northeastward through the Ohio Valley. Depending on how far north the remains move, we may see some tropical moisture make it into far southeastern Wisconsin Tuesday night and Wednesday, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty at this distance. Shower/thunderstorm chances persist into at least Thursday as troughing remains in place across the western Great Lakes. Temperatures during this stretch look to be around average, with upper 70s and low 80s for highs. Extended guidance suggests that the ridge will begin to build across the Central Plains as we approach the weekend. This would favor temperatures rising above average in the Day 6/7 timeframe. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A prolonged period of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected today and tonight, with considerable uncertainty regarding exact coverage and timing at any given terminal. Winds will remain light and variable this morning, becoming light from the south later this morning and afternoon. Other than some patchy fog this morning, VFR conditions are expected outside of any shower/thunderstorm activity. MVFR and brief periods of IFR are expected with showers and storms. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure initially centered over Lake Erie will gradually push into the Saint Lawrence River Valley through Monday, resulting in primarily southerly winds across the lake. Readings will remain light, with gusts at or below 15 knots expected. A cold front will approach the open waters Monday night, resulting in a wind shift out of the west by sunrise Tuesday morning. Later Tuesday into Wednesday, there is a potential for stronger winds over the southern portion of the lake, depending on the eventual track of the remains of Tropical Storm Beryl, which may track across central and north central Indiana. This potential will be updated in later forecasts. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee