676
FXUS62 KMHX 150513
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
113 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in from the north will remain over the
eastern seaboard through late week before a front begins to
approach from the west this weekend bringing increasing
precipitation chances across the area. Swells from distant
Tropical Storm Ernesto will begin impacting the coast starting
Friday and persisting into the weekend, bringing a threat for
elevated rip current risk and coastal impacts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Thurs...

 - Monitoring fog potential overnight

No significant changes from the previous update, expecting a
dry forecast for the remainder of tonight with ample dry air
over ENC this evening. Skies have cleared across the entire CWA
finally which has lead to some patchy shallow ground fog
especially across Duplin and inland Onslow County, though
minimal impact from this fog is forecast for the rest of
tonight. General expectation is for ground fog to increase in
coverage along the Coastal Plain into daybreak before
dissipating but not expecting any dense fog as of this update.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...Shortwave pushes off the coast overnight
with any lingering precipitation quickly falling off after
sunset. Skies will quickly clear, and with calm winds tonight
looks like a good radiational cooling event. Followed the prior
shift`s lead and kept lows at the bottom of the guidance
envelope (low to mid 60s, around 70 along the coast). Guidance
soundings depict a very shallow but saturated boundary layer,
and fog remains a risk early Thurs morn. The overall
probabilities of lower visibilities are low (under 20%), but the
conditional risk of dense fog is elevated. Maintained fog
mention from the previous forecast, but this will be need to be
closely monitored in future updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM Wednesday...Yet another
nice day as high pressure continues to linger overhead. Even
drier air will seep into the area as forecast PWATs plunge below
an inch and dew points fall into the upper 50s as mixing is
maximized in the afternoon. A minority of guidance is showing a
few spotty showers developing across NOBX as a weak shortwave
pivots around the departing upper trough, but given such dry
forecast conditions did not put in any PoPs for the period.
Highs perhaps a degree higher than today, but still near to
slightly below average - mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week
as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure
builds into the area from the northwest.

The upper trough shifts off the East Coast Thursday and Friday
with upper ridging building in from the west. NHC guidance
continues to take Tropical Cyclone Ernesto well off the NC
coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night through the weekend. At
the same time, another trough will dig south from the Great
Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a weak frontal feature moving
into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it increasing
chances for showers & thunderstorms across the region. Trended
PoPs closer to climo, diurnally-driven convective activity by
midday through the evening with waning activity overnight. 00Z
14th guidance is in better agreement with a surface boundary
shifting more offshore by Monday, so may need to trim back PoPs
a bit, esp. for inland locations. Seasonable temps continue with
highs generally in the mid 80s through Tuesday.

While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at this
time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing
an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday
and continuing through the weekend. See Coastal Flooding section
below for more details.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday night/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...The main challenge for the remainder of
tonight will be BR/MIFG potential. Overall not much change in
the forecast reasoning for the rest of tonight as reaching the
crossover temps (low to mid 60s) is plausible, and I expect
this, alone, will at least support a risk of MIFG. However, the
risk of a deep/more substantial FG risk appears more
questionable due to a drier low-level airmass working south into
the area. Given current obs across OAJ of 4-5 mile vis, general
expectation for tonight will be MVFR vis across OAJ with MVFR
VIS possible across ISO/PGV after 09Z so added a tempo group
here to account for this though worth noting confidence is low
they get below VFR tonight given the nature of this shallow
ground fog. EWN remains VFR through daybreak.

Once we get into the day on Thurs VFR conditions will
persist into Fri morning with light NE breezes noted across all
TAF sites.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Dry weather expected Thursday and
Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light
winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to
bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus
most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Weak cool
front will move into the area by this weekend, yielding
increasing chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms
possible, mainly during peak heating which may produce sub-VFR
conditions at times on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 325 PM Wed...Benign boating conditions continue across
our waters with high pressure remaining still firmly in control.
Regional observations show north to northeasterly winds of 5-10
kt with seas around 2-3 feet, and little change in these
conditions are expected until Thursday night when swell from
distant TC Ernesto begins to creep into area waters. Widespread
5-15 kt N-NE winds are forecast across all waters and 2-3 ft
seas are forecast across all coastal waters through the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...Good boating conditions through much
early Friday morning with high pressure building into the area
bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt. Winds begin to veer to E and
SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and
Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will
generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday. By sunrise
Friday, we will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells
from Ernesto move into the waters which will build through
Saturday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells could impact
the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long period swells
could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of
opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy
(SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and east facing
inlets along the NC coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 325 PM Wed...A few more rivers have fallen below flood
stage, but overall synopsis has not changed. River flooding
will continue across many river basins in Eastern NC, including
the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries.
River flooding will persist through the weekend and into next
week as the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC
Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards
the sounds and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst
river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not
cresting until late week or this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Wed...Little change in the forecast over the next
few days as TC Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a
hurricane later today then pass well to the east late week into
this weekend. Strong long period swells from distant Ernesto
will combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely
lead to several coastal hazards. Dangerous rip currents and
rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is also potential
for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures
are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday
morning into early next week. More specifics will be provided
over the next few days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/RCF
MARINE...DAG/MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX