Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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718 FXUS62 KMHX 150816 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 416 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will gradually shift offshore by Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. Cold front will then track across the Carolinas Sunday into Monday bringing our next threat for unsettled weather to the area. Swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto will begin impacting the coast starting Friday and persisting into the weekend, bringing a threat for an elevated rip current risk and coastal impacts. High pressure then builds in from the north and west early next week once again bringing fair weather to ENC. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 4 AM Thurs...Patchy radiational ground fog has developed mainly along the Coastal Plain but has not brought much in the way of impacts to ENC this morning. Otherwise clear skies and calm winds have allowed temps to dip into the low to mid 60s inland with upper 60s to low 70s noted along the OBX this morning. Another nice day is on tap today as an upper level trough gradually begins to push off the coast this afternoon and evening while at the surface high pressure ridging continues to nudge south across the Carolinas. With ample dry air through the column and no significant shortwaves making their way across ENC today, expecting a dry forecast with just some diurnal Cu setting up this afternoon. Will continue to have light NE`rly flow across ENC today keeping the NOBX slightly cooler than the rest of the area but overall expect widespread high temps in the 80s today with mid to upper 80s inland and low 80s along the OBX. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 330 AM Thurs...Pleasant conditions continue tonight as upper troughing pushes offshore and is quickly replaced by an upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure ridging gradually pushes offshore keeping things dry across ENC once again. With mo clear skies, light and variable winds, and a dry airmass aloft over ENC expect favorable conditions for decoupling bringing a low end threat for some patchy radiational fog. Once again not expecting any significant impacts even if fog develops given ample dry air over ENC. Tonight`s lows once again get into the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to near 70 along the OBX. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 4 AM Thu...A drying trend will cont through the week as high pressure remains overhead. A cold front and trough approach on the weekend with increasing shower and storm chances, peaking Sunday. Friday through Sunday...The initial upper trough shifts off the East Coast through Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. NHC guidance continues to take Tropical Cyclone Ernesto well off the NC coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night through the weekend. At the same time, another trough will dig south from the Great Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a cold front moving into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms across the region. Fcst is pop-free through Fri, then aforementioned trough and cold front bring threat for shower and storms. A small threat exists mainly for interior zones later Sat, but Sun appears the best chance for precip as 00/15Z guidance in good agreement now. Could be a severe threat as well, with ML CAPES per ECM guidance indicative of values over 2k J/KG and deep layer shear aoa 30 kt. Monday...Upr trough remains west of the region with the front stalling through Monday. Therefore, chances for precip cont, and have advertised 40-50% pops. Tuesday through Wednesday...Cold front expected to push through, thus precip chances wane and mostly dry and cooler conditions are expected. Temps drop back down to near climo, with highs in the 80s, and lows mainly in the 60s (low 70s coast). && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Thursday night/... As of 110 AM Thursday...The main challenge for the remainder of tonight will be BR/MIFG potential. Overall not much change in the forecast reasoning for the rest of tonight as reaching the crossover temps (low to mid 60s) is plausible, and I expect this, alone, will at least support a risk of MIFG. However, the risk of a deep/more substantial FG risk appears more questionable due to a drier low-level airmass working south into the area. Given current obs across OAJ of 4-5 mile vis, general expectation for tonight will be MVFR vis across OAJ with MVFR VIS possible across ISO/PGV after 09Z so added a tempo group here to account for this though worth noting confidence is low they get below VFR tonight given the nature of this shallow ground fog. EWN remains VFR through daybreak. Once we get into the day on Thurs VFR conditions will persist into Fri morning with light NE breezes noted across all TAF sites. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 AM Thu...Dry weather expected through Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning patchy fog and stratus most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Cold front will move into the area by this weekend, yielding increasing chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms possible, especially on Sunday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 AM Thurs...We start the period out with benign boating weather with that quickly shifting towards daybreak on Friday with the approach of swell associated with distant Hurricane Ernesto. Currently obs show widespread 5-10 kt N-NE`rly winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across our coastal waters this morning. Expect winds to generally remain around 5-15 kts coming from a N-NE`rly direction through the entire period. The bigger story however will be the seas. Current guidance suggests the ongoing 1-2 ft seas this morning will gradually increase to 2-3 ft by mid-morning and then 2-4 ft this afternoon. Seas will continue to increase tonight as long period (~14-15 sec) SE`rly swell from Ernesto begins to overspread the region with seas quickly building to 3-5 ft across our coastal waters by daybreak Fri with even some 4-6 ft seas likely along the Gulf Stream waters by Fri morning. With the expectation for a continued increase in sea heights Fri morning planning on issuing SCA`s this morning across all coastal waters for 6+ ft seas starting Fri. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 AM Thu...Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda this weekend. Seas will generally be around 2 to 4 ft through early Friday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells could impact the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and east facing inlets along the NC coast. Have hoisted SCA`s for the coastal waters beginning Friday morning, with seas peaking at 8-9 ft Friday night, then only slowly subsiding through this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 4 AM Thu...Not much change in the overall trend of things this morning, though Chinquapin should fall below flood stage finally by this afternoon. River flooding will continue across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the sounds and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Thu...Little change in the forecast over the next few days as Hurricane Ernesto passes well to the east late week into this weekend. Strong long period swells from distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely lead to several coastal hazards likely starting Friday and persisting through the weekend. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday afternoon/evening into early next week. More specifics will be provided over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/RCF MARINE...TL/RCF HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX