499
FXUS62 KMHX 101903
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the area tonight and stall into
early next week with lingering moisture from Debby and saturated
soils continuing to bring periods of heavy rainfall and the
threat of flash flooding. High pressure will build into the
area for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop this afternoon across ENC as differential
heating boundaries have kicked off convective activity. With a
front moving into the region more dynamics will improve this
afternoon as storms begin to migrate inland with time. Due to
the heavy rains over the past week, there is unusually high low
level moisture and this is contributing to large instability
with MUCAPE values now over 4500 J/kg and MLCAPEs 2000-3000
J/kg. This combined with the high PWAT values of 2.25"+ will
lead to the threat of flash flooding this afternoon and evening
and a flash flood watch remains in effect until 11 pm.

With some clearing this morning, temperatures have risen into
the upper 80s to low 90s, and due to the super-saturated low
levels dewpoints remain very high, which is producing heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees. This will be short lived with
showers and thunderstorms cooling the air shortly.

Tonight, convective activity should wane quickly with loss of
heating, and only widely scattered activity is expected
overnight. Offshore convection will pick up, but most CAMs keep
the majority of the rain associated with that over the waters
and away from the beaches. Very muggy conditions continue with
lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sat...A cold front will move into the Carolinas
tomorrow but stall over the area. Continued favorable conditions
for lift associated with this feature will bring yet another
day of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding. Similar
to today, activity should begin along the coast, and spread
inland through the afternoon hours. Quickly accumulating heavy
downpours are likely with PWATs remaining over 2.25" and MUCAPEs
rising above 3000 J/kg. Cloud cover should keep temperatures
from rising past the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...Cold front will become stalled just off
the coast Monday. This will bring continued shower and
thunderstorm chances across the area through Tuesday. The main
concern with this pattern is the possibility for torrential
downpours over already saturated soils, which could lead to
additional flooding issues. WPC has ENC within a marginal risk
Monday and Tuesday.

Mid-week will host the lowest PoPs we`ve seen in days as high
pressure starts to sink south. Upper troughing, the lingering front
just offshore, and the seabreeze will keep PoPs around 15-30%.
Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees
cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area.

The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes
over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through
the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Afternoon/...
As of 145 PM Sat...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are present
across the region early this afternoon. Expect this to continue
for the next few hours with conditions then worsening late this
afternoon as widespread showers and thunderstorms produce
periods of IFR/MVFR conditions. Convection will become more
scattered early tonight and some brief improvement is possible,
however expect another round of fog and low stratus to develop
after midnight. Best chances will be across the coastal plain,
and here we`re expecting IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities
to develop early tomorrow morning through almost mid morning.
Closer to the coast, low end MVFR conditions are likely, with
the potential for IFR ceilings to move in before dawn.

Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms are again expected
tomorrow as a front moves into the region, and MVFR conditions
may hold through the morning hours and into the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...The pattern remains unsettled, which
will present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions
through the period. Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, fog, and low status can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/...
As of 245 PM Sat...Outside of convection, which could be
widespread at times, favorable marine conditions will exist
through tomorrow. Winds will be mostly be SW 10-15 kts but could
occasionally gust to 20 kts, while seas remain 3-5 ft through
tonight and 2-4 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through
the period. 5-10 kt Sunday night winds become variable on
Monday as a cold front moves in and stalls across the area
Tuesday. Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
Sunday (60-70%) with decreasing chances through the rest of the
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 245 PM Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected this afternoon. With already saturated soils
from 3-8" if rain already this week and efficient rainfall
rates, flash flooding will continue to be a concern this
afternoon and have issued a flood watch from noon to midnight
for all but Hatteras Island and Ocracoke as most storms are
expected to be over the mainland. The only other exception is
Carteret County which has seen slow moving thunderstorms
producing copious amounts of rain early this morning and flash
flooding has already been occuring, so have the flood watch
already in place.

River flooding will continue across many river basins including
the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as
several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into
next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SGK/OJC
MARINE...SGK/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX