560
FXUS62 KMHX 110000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the area tonight and stall into
early next week with lingering moisture from Debby and saturated
soils continuing to bring periods of heavy rainfall and the
threat of flash flooding. High pressure will build into the
area for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM Sat...Convective activity is gradually diminishing
across the region, although persistent activity continues for
portions of Duplin and Lenoir counties where Flash Flood
headlines remain as radar and spotter confirmed rainfall rates
exceed 3"/hr at times. Given the considerable amount of
precipitation these areas have received over the past several
days, it will take very little for flash flooding to begin and
quickly lead to potentially considerable impacts.

Tonight, convective activity should wane quickly with loss of
heating, and only widely scattered activity is expected
overnight. Offshore convection will pick up, but most CAMs keep
the majority of the rain associated with that over the waters
and away from the beaches. Very muggy conditions continue with
lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sat...A cold front will move into the Carolinas
tomorrow but stall over the area. Continued favorable conditions
for lift associated with this feature will bring yet another
day of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding. Similar
to today, activity should begin along the coast, and spread
inland through the afternoon hours. Quickly accumulating heavy
downpours are likely with PWATs remaining over 2.25" and MUCAPEs
rising above 3000 J/kg. Cloud cover should keep temperatures
from rising past the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...Cold front will become stalled just off
the coast Monday. This will bring continued shower and
thunderstorm chances across the area through Tuesday. The main
concern with this pattern is the possibility for torrential
downpours over already saturated soils, which could lead to
additional flooding issues. WPC has ENC within a marginal risk
Monday and Tuesday.

Mid-week will host the lowest PoPs we`ve seen in days as high
pressure starts to sink south. Upper troughing, the lingering front
just offshore, and the seabreeze will keep PoPs around 15-30%.
Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees
cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area.

The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes
over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through
the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Mon/...
As of 800 PM Sat...Little change in forecast reasoning from the
prior TAFs. All terminals sit at VFR this evening with bulk of
precipitation to our west, quickly diminishing with loss of
heating and considerable turnover from prior activity. Like last
night, given impressive low-level humidity and very light winds
low stratus and fog should have little trouble developing
tonight after 05-06z, especially for coastal plain terminals.
Restriction onsets times closely follow LAMP guidance, but end a
bit more quickly as LAMP has a tendency to erroneously hold
onto lower cigs into the late morning hours.

Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms are again expected
tomorrow as a front moves into the region, and MVFR conditions
may hold through the morning hours and into the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...The pattern remains unsettled, which
will present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions
through the period. Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, fog, and low status can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/...
As of 245 PM Sat...Outside of convection, which could be
widespread at times, favorable marine conditions will exist
through tomorrow. Winds will be mostly be SW 10-15 kts but could
occasionally gust to 20 kts, while seas remain 3-5 ft through
tonight and 2-4 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through
the period. 5-10 kt Sunday night winds become variable on
Monday as a cold front moves in and stalls across the area
Tuesday. Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
Sunday (60-70%) with decreasing chances through the rest of the
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 245 PM Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected this afternoon. With already saturated soils
from 3-8" if rain already this week and efficient rainfall
rates, flash flooding will continue to be a concern this
afternoon and have issued a flood watch from noon to midnight
for all but Hatteras Island and Ocracoke as most storms are
expected to be over the mainland. The only other exception is
Carteret County which has seen slow moving thunderstorms
producing copious amounts of rain early this morning and flash
flooding has already been occuring, so have the flood watch
already in place.

River flooding will continue across many river basins including
the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as
several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into
next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for NCZ195-196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/MS
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...SGK/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX