Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
209 FXUS62 KMHX 281916 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 316 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime pattern will remain in place through early next week, with high pressure offshore and troughing inland. The next frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Typical summertime conditions today, with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, and heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees Visible satellite imagery reveals both the seabreeze and an inland confluence zone (roughly from Duplin County NE through Beaufort County). Vertical cloud development along the seabreeze has been fairly muted thus far. Meanwhile, areas of towering cumulus have been noted along the inland confluence axis, and lighting probability guidance has been increasing within this axis. It appears this axis will be the primary driver of convection for the remainder of this afternoon in what is a typical summertime regime (moderate instability and weak shear). The mid-levels are fairly moist and DCAPE is forecast to remain <1000jkg, which should keep the risk of damaging wet microbursts at a minimum. That said, the tallest cores will be capable of 30-50 mph wind gusts. Convection should quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. As is typical this time of year, heat indices are currently sitting around 100 degrees. With additional heating, values may creep up to 105 degrees, but not widespread enough to warrant heat headlines. Temperatures tonight fall into the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Scattered seabreeze thunderstorms on Sunday, with heat indices of 100-105 degrees At face value, Sunday looks very similar to today, with the continuation of typical summertime heat, humidity, and seabreeze convection. Of note, though, short-term ensemble guidance suggests a slightly higher coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. It appears this is due, in part, to the low-level flow becoming more westerly later in the day, which may lead to better convergence along the seabreeze. By this time this increased convergence develops, the seabreeze should be fairly far inland, which suggests there may be a relative "max" in coverage across Greene, Pitt, and Martin Counties, and perhaps as far east as the Albemarle Sound vicinity. Like today, the environment doesn`t appear overly supportive of stronger downdrafts, which should keep the pulse severe risk at a minimum. The one potential exception is in the counties mentioned above where the potential for increased convergence may allow deeper convection to last longer, which would potentially up the risk of stronger downdrafts (ie. 50+ mph). Also like today, heat indices should top out in the 100-105 degree range. Dewpoints are forecast to be 1-2 degrees higher than today, allowing a few more locations to reach a heat index of 105 compared to today. Even so, it still appears that the risk of widespread, dangerous heat is low, and no heat headlines are currently planned. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 AM Saturday... Key Messages - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat indices 100-105F every afternoon - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Wednesday increases rain chances Wednesday PM, and could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Upper level ridge continues weakening, eventually shifting offshore, as highs persist in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely through Tuesday. The cumulative effect of several days with high heat indices (and little relief at night) is something for those working or spending much time outside to consider as they make preparations for the heat. As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level support keeps PoPs in the chance to slight chance range through Tuesday, as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Mid next week, a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week, highest Wednesday PM when models suggest the frontal precip moves through. Severe potential looks to be limited at this time, with best upper level forcing and shear well to the north. However, ample instability paired with PWATS near 2" could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and stronger wind gusts with convection associated with the front. If the front ends up stalling over the region next week, this could provide an axis for persistent, heavy precip, and will be worth monitoring for flash flooding concerns. Plenty of possible scenarios at this point with the frontal passage still 5 days out. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Sunday/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Typical summertime pattern with widely SCT seabreeze TSRA Widely scattered SHRA and TSRA will remain possible along the seabreeze and an inland convergence axis through early this evening. Once the seabreeze passes, the risk of TSRA will decrease, and there will be the typical bump up in SW to S winds for a couple of hours. A PROB30 was introduced at KOAJ where there appears to be a relatively higher risk of TSRA this afternoon. Elsewhere, confidence is too low for a PROB30 TSRA mention. Relatively light and variable winds are then expected tonight into Sunday morning. Some guidance is hinting at reduced VIS due to BR/FG tonight, but the pattern doesn`t appear overly supportive of this, and no mention was added to the TAFs for now. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected through the long term. Daily tstorm chances could bring reduced vis and cigs, with the highest likelihood Wednesday PM. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Typical summertime pattern continues, with breezy southwest winds, and a risk of thunderstorms for the inland rivers and sounds The next couple of days will continue to feature very typical summertime conditions for all ENC waters. Southwest winds of 10-20kt are expected through tonight, becoming a bit more southerly Sunday through Sunday night. Within this flow, seas of 3-4 ft will be common. Over the next couple of days, the thunderstorm risk is expected to be fairly typical for summertime, with the risk being focused over the inland rivers and sounds during the afternoon and evening hours, followed by a shift in the risk to the offshore coastal waters. LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/... As of 2 AM Saturday...Monday and Tuesday pressure gradient tightens with high strengthening offshore, and winds pick up to become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas respond to be 4-6 ft. Monday night through Tuesday will be our next best chance of seeing small craft advisory criteria conditions for coastal waters, Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke sounds. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...RM/RJ MARINE...RM/RJ