963
FXUS62 KMHX 152046
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
446 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will gradually shift
offshore by Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Cold front will then track across the Carolinas Sunday into
Monday bringing our next threat for unsettled weather to the
area. Swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto will begin impacting
the coast starting Friday and persisting into the weekend,
bringing a threat for an elevated rip current risk and coastal
impacts. High pressure then builds in from the north and west
early next week once again bringing fair weather to ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...The upper trough is working its way
offshore, which is the key steering flow feature responsible for
keeping Hurricane Ernesto from making a closer approach to the
East Coast. Upper ridging will start building over the eastern
US today and work with surface high pressure to sustain mostly
dry conditions through the period. Radiational cooling will take
place tonight and aid temps in reaching the low to mid 60s
across the coastal plain and low 70s along the beaches. A lack
of cloud cover and light winds overnight might allow some patchy
ditch fog to form, but it shouldn`t be widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...High pressure remains dominant tomorrow
and continues a mostly dry forecast. Some very isolated showers
are possible along the seabreeze, but a fairly dry column will
preclude any mentionable PoPs in the forecast. Plenty of
insolation will allow highs to reach the upper 80s across the
coastal plain and low to mid 80s along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thu...A drying trend will cont through the week as high
pressure remains overhead. A cold front and trough approach on
the weekend with increasing shower and storm chances, peaking
Sunday.

Friday through Sunday...The initial upper trough shifts off the
East Coast through Friday with upper ridging building in from
the west. NHC guidance continues to take Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto well off the NC coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night
through the weekend. At the same time, another trough will dig
south from the Great Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a cold
front moving into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it
increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms across the
region. Fcst is pop-free through Fri, then aforementioned trough
and cold front bring threat for shower and storms. A small
threat exists mainly for interior zones later Sat, but Sun
appears the best chance for precip as 00/15Z guidance in good
agreement now. Could be a severe threat as well, with ML CAPES
per ECM guidance indicative of values over 2k J/KG and deep
layer shear aoa 30 kt.

Monday...Upr trough remains west of the region with the front
stalling through Monday. Therefore, chances for precip cont, and
have advertised 40-50% pops.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Cold front expected to push through,
thus precip chances wane and mostly dry and cooler conditions
are expected. Temps drop back down to near climo, with highs in
the 80s, and lows mainly in the 60s (low 70s coast).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday night/...
As of 1:30 PM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the period. Some decreases in visibility are possible
for all of the TAF sites late tonight/early Friday morning,
especially across the inner coastal plain. Given the lack of
moisture in the column, widespread impactful fog does not seem
likely. However, some patchy radiational ditch fog is possible
with decoupling winds and a lack of cloud cover. No mention of
fog has been included in the TAF at this point due to a lack of
confidence in coverage. Tomorrow will be a copy/paste forecast
of today with light winds and diurnal cumulus.

As of 705 AM Thursday...Patchy ground fog did end up developing
across all terminals and across much of the Coastal Plain
overnight, though this ground fog brought little to no impact
to operations. Primarily a VFR TAF across all terminals through
today with the exception of OAJ/PGV where ground fog has yet to
dissipate so left a TEMPO MVFR vis group between 12Z-13Z to
account for the ongoing ground fog before it dissipates.
Otherwise light NE`rly winds and mo clear skies are forecast
today. As we get into tonight we will once again have a low
end threat for ground fog this evening. If fog were to develop
it would likely develop after 06Z and once again pose little to
no impact to operations.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Dry weather expected through Friday, then
unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good
radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance
for late night/early morning patchy fog and stratus most
mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Cold front
will move into the area by this weekend, yielding increasing
chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms possible,
especially on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Marine conditions begin deteriorating late
tonight as the long period (14-16 sec) swell from distant Hurricane
Ernesto starts to creep into our coastal waters. Seas are currently
2-3 ft but will be increasing through late tomorrow when waves peak
around 8-9 ft in the central waters, 5-7 ft in the northern waters,
and 5-8 ft in the southern waters. SCAs are in effect for all
coastal waters starting between 12-15Z tomorrow morning and lasting
through the weekend. Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the northeast
through Friday morning and start veering to the east by early
evening.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to
Bermuda this weekend. Seas will generally be around 2 to 4 ft
through early Friday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells
could impact the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long
period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous
at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular
swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and
east facing inlets along the NC coast. Have hoisted SCA`s for
the coastal waters beginning Friday morning, with seas peaking
at 8-9 ft Friday night, then only slowly subsiding through this
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 PM Thu...The Northeast Cape Fear River near Chinquapin
has fallen below flood stage and the Neuse River at Kinston has
reached moderate flood stage. River flooding will continue
across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent,
Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River
flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as
the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont,
upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the sounds
and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river
flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting
until late week or this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 PM Thu...Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to pass well to
the east late week into this weekend. Strong long period swells
from distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides,
which will likely lead to several coastal hazards starting
Friday and persisting through the weekend. Dangerous rip
currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is
also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where
dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern
will be Friday afternoon/evening into early next week. A High
Surf Advisory is in effect starting at 2 PM Friday from Oregon
Inlet to Surf City for dangerous breaking waves of 6-9 ft. In
addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect starting at 2 PM
Friday from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout for 1-2 feet of
inundation. Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and
Hatteras Islands will be most susceptible to impacts from beach
erosion and ocean overwash.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...OJC/TL
MARINE...OJC/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX