072
FXUS62 KMHX 111741
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
141 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall across the region early this week
continuing to bring periods of heavy rainfall and the threat of
flash flooding as the soils are already saturated. High pressure
will build into the area for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM Sunday...

- Additional thunderstorms will bring the threat of flash
  flooding this afternoon and evening.

- River flooding will continue across many basins through much
  of the week with main stem river flooding potentially
  continuing into next week.

Shortwave energy pivoting through an upper low centered north
of the Great Lakes will push across the area today while a cold
front currently across the piedmont will slide into ENC this
morning and stall. Descent upper level support with low level
convergence along sfc boundaries, including the sea breeze and
stalled front, and strong instability with MLCAPE peaking around
2000-2500J/Kg will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop again today. PWATs around 2.25" will
bring efficient rainfall rates again today and with copious
precip received this week the threat of flash flooding
continues and have issued a flood watch this afternoon and
evening. High temps expected in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms activity will
diminish through the evening with loss of heating and expect the
flash flood threat to end by late evening. However, continued
cyclonic flow aloft and the frontal boundary slowly pushing
south across the region could see isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms to persist through the overnight,
especially across coastal and southern sections. A typical warm
and muggy night for August with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front will push through the area
Monday and become stalled just off the coast by early Tuesday.
This will bring continued shower and thunderstorm chances across
the area through Wednesday until it moves further away from the
coast. The main concern with this pattern is the possibility
for a few downpours over already saturated soils, which could
lead to additional flooding issues. WPC has ENC within a
marginal risk Monday and Tuesday.

PoPs stick around but will decrease slightly as we progress towards
late-week and high pressure sinks south. Upper troughing, the
lingering front just offshore, and the seabreeze will provide
multiple sources of lift. These showers and thunderstorms, although
some downpours are still possible, shouldn`t be nearly as efficient
as the ones we`ve had over the past week. This slightly drier air
mass with dew points in the 60s will be a welcomed change after
multiple days of torrential rain from Debby`s tropical moisture.
Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees
cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area.

The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes
over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through
the rest of the period. The next frontal system will approach the
area over the weekend as a low across the Great Lakes region moves
eastward.

Focus returns to the Atlantic late week. Guidance is depicting what
will likely become Ernesto, but the aforementioned upper trough is
forecast to keep this system away from the east coast. Regardless of
track, however, impacts in the way of heightened rip current risks
and dangerous boating and surf conditions are to be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 145 PM Sun...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are present
early this afternoon across Eastern NC. Once again we are
expecting scattered to widespread areas of convection to develop
shortly which will pose a risk of gusty winds and temporary
reductions to visibilities and cloudbases to IFR or MVFR levels.
By this evening thunderstorms activity should become widely
scattered, and VFR conditions may briefly return.

Tonight, abundant low level moisture and weak flow will
encourage stratus development with conditions likely falling to
MVFR levels by midnight. After midnight fog in addition to low
stratus is likely with visibilities mostly 2-4 miles and
ceilings falling to 700-1000 ft by early tomorrow morning. IFR
conditions are expected to continue until around mid morning
similar to the last couple of mornings, with conditions
improving to MVFR for the rest of the morning with cloudbases
around 2500-3000 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...The pattern remains unsettled, which will
present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions through
the period. Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
fog, and low status can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730AM Sunday...A cold front will slowly push south into
the waters this afternoon through tonight. The front is
currently progged to push into the northern waters late this
morning and afternoon and reach the Cape Hatteras to Crystal
Coast by late tonight. SW winds around 15 kt or less ahead of
the front will shift to NE around 10 kt ore less behind it. Seas
will continue around 2-4 ft. Sea fog could move into the
northern waters behind the front this afternoon into tonight.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the
period. A stalled front across the area will generate 5-10 kt
variable winds on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday will host
winds out of the NE around 10-15 kt. Seas remain around 2-3 ft
until Thursday afternoon when some 4 footers start to build
across the outer central waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 430 AM Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected again this afternoon. With already saturated soils
from 4-10" if rain already this week and efficient rainfall
rates, flash flooding will continue to be a concern this
afternoon and have issued a flood watch from noon to 10 PM for
all but Hatteras Island and Ocracoke as most storms are expected
to be over the mainland.

River flooding will continue across many river basins including
the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as
several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into
next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/SGK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SGK/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX