634
FXUS62 KMHX 120150
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
950 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall across the region early this week
continuing to bring periods of heavy rainfall and the threat of
flash flooding as the soils are already saturated. High pressure
will build into the area for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 950 PM Sun...Activity continues to slowly diminish
tonight, although cold front has made some progress southward -
despite weak flow, front is likely draped from Oregon Inlet to
around the Bay River and areas west. As the front continues to
slowly sag southward, off-and-on showers and thunderstorms will
likely persist through the night. The HRRR and other reliable
CAMs are once again suggesting a risk along the Crystal Coast
after 2-3 am. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with lows
in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...The cold front will be stalled across the
southern coast tomorrow, with yet another active day on tap.
Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms will develop
through the day with the exception of the far northern reaches
of the forecast area where drier air behind the front will
limit precip coverage. Heavy rain will be the main threat as the
high PWAT air remains over most of the area, and flash flooding
will be possible due to the exceptionally high rain rates.
Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Cold front will become stalled just off the
coast by early Tuesday. This will bring continued shower and
thunderstorm chances across the area through Wednesday until it
moves further away from the coast. The main concern with this
pattern is the possibility for a few downpours over already
saturated soils, which could lead to additional flooding issues.
WPC has ENC within a marginal risk Monday and Tuesday.

PoPs stick around but will decrease slightly as we progress towards
late-week and high pressure sinks south. Upper troughing, the
lingering front just offshore, and the seabreeze will provide
multiple sources of lift. These showers and thunderstorms, although
some downpours are still possible, shouldn`t be nearly as efficient
as the ones we`ve had over the past week. This slightly drier air
mass with dew points in the 60s will be a welcomed change after
multiple days of torrential rain from Debby`s tropical moisture.
Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees
cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area.

The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes
over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through
the rest of the period. The next frontal system will approach the
area over the weekend as a low across the Great Lakes region moves
eastward.

Focus returns to the Atlantic late week. Guidance is depicting what
will likely become Ernesto, but the aforementioned upper trough is
forecast to keep this system away from the east coast. Regardless of
track, however, impacts in the way of heightened rip current risks
and dangerous boating and surf conditions are to be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Tues/...
As of 740 PM Sun...Mixed bag of observations this evening as
band of precipitation continues to drift inland and weaken along
a frontal boundary roughly draped from KECG to KGWW. Scattered
stratiform rain across the coastal plain will persist for the
next couple hours and rapid changes in flight conditions are
likely for the next couple hours before returning to primarily
VFR.

Tonight, abundant low level moisture and weak flow will
encourage stratus development with conditions quickly falling to
IFR after 06z. Fog will preclude IFR cig development by a couple
of hours, with lowest visibilities across the coastal plain
like the past few nights. IFR conditions are expected to
continue until around mid morning similar to the last couple of
mornings, with conditions improving to MVFR for the rest of the
morning with cloud bases around 2500-3000 ft.

Shower and thunderstorm threat returns tomorrow as front
continues to sag south, although highest concentration of
activity will south of a line from EWN to GWW.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...The pattern remains unsettled, which will
present multiple opportunities for sub-VFR conditions through
the period. Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
fog, and low status can be expected. Eventually by midweek drier
and cooler conditions will move in and lead to mostly VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Outside of convection, which could be
widespread at times, favorable marine conditions will exist
through tomorrow as a weak cold front moves into the area. The
front is currently located along the NOBX and will slowly sag
southward tonight and then stall across the southern coastal
waters tomorrow afternoon. To the north of the front winds will
turn to the NE/N at 5-10 kts, while to the south of the front
winds will remain SW at 5-15 kts. Seas are expected to be 2-3
ft through tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the
period. Tuesday through Thursday will have winds out of the NE
around 10-15 kt. Seas remain around 2-3 ft until Thursday
afternoon when some 4 footers start to build across the outer
central waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected again this afternoon. With already saturated soils from
4-10" if rain already this week and efficient rainfall rates,
flash flooding will continue to be a concern this afternoon and
have issued a flood watch from noon to 10 PM for all but
Hatteras Island and Ocracoke as most storms are expected to be
over the mainland.

River flooding will continue across many river basins including
the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as
several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into
next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/MS
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...SGK/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX