863
FXUS62 KMHX 120752
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will slowly sag south across the Carolinas today
bringing yet another day of heavy rainfall and the threat for
flash flooding as the soils are already saturated. Cold front
pushes offshore tonight while high pressure builds in from the
north. High pressure will then remain over the Eastern Seaboard
into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...As expected, we have some scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity currently across portions of coastal
Onslow, Carteret and our OBX counties with additional rain and
thunderstorm activity noted across our coastal waters. Expect
this activity to continue off to the north and east eventually
moving away from ENC towards daybreak with some dry time
possible across the region. Otherwise warm and muggy conditions
persist with even some patchy fog noted across our SW`rn
counties this morning. Currently have an SPS out for this patchy
fog as visibilities could drop below 1 mile at times.

Cold front that has been draped across our area will slowly
make its way S`wards through the day today providing yet another
active day across ENC. CAM guidance suggests after a brief
period of downtime early this morning, we once again see
widespread shower and thunderstorm development across ENC from
mid morning into the afternoon with the exception of the far
northern reaches of the forecast area where drier air behind the
front will limit precip coverage. Heavy rain will be the main
threat as the high PWAT air remains over most of the area and
flash flooding will be possible due to the exceptionally high
rain rates. With latest HREF probs of 2+ inches of rainfall
over 12 hours well over 50% from Pitt, Beaufort, and mainland
Hyde Counties south and flash flood guidance sitting around 2
inches across much of the same area, have elected to post a
flash flood watch across these zones where the highest
likelihood of heavy rain persists. We will finally begin to see
the front push south this evening so do expect rainfall to
gradually diminish across our northern zones near sunset.
Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Cold front continues to push south through
the evening with rain and thunderstorm activity coming to an end
from north to south tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity
may linger across the Crystal Coast until about midnight but
after that, expecting a mostly dry forecast across the area for
the first time in just about a week. Patchy fog and low stratus
will once again be possible as well especially after midnight as
well across ENC while the area continues to remain warm but
slightly less muggy with lows only getting down into the upper
60s to mid 70s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Cold front will become stalled just off the
coast by early Tuesday. This will bring continued shower and
thunderstorm chances across the area through Wednesday until it
moves further away from the coast. The main concern with this
pattern is the possibility for a few downpours over already
saturated soils, which could lead to additional flooding issues.
WPC has ENC within a marginal risk Monday and Tuesday.

PoPs stick around but will decrease slightly as we progress towards
late-week and high pressure sinks south. Upper troughing, the
lingering front just offshore, and the seabreeze will provide
multiple sources of lift. These showers and thunderstorms, although
some downpours are still possible, shouldn`t be nearly as efficient
as the ones we`ve had over the past week. This slightly drier air
mass with dew points in the 60s will be a welcomed change after
multiple days of torrential rain from Debby`s tropical moisture.
Interaction with this front will also keep our temps a few degrees
cooler than climo with highs in the low 80s across much of the area.

The upper trough begins to depart late week as upper riding takes
over but the seabreeze will keep climo PoPs in the forecast through
the rest of the period. The next frontal system will approach the
area over the weekend as a low across the Great Lakes region moves
eastward.

Focus returns to the Atlantic late week. Guidance is depicting what
will likely become Ernesto, but the aforementioned upper trough is
forecast to keep this system away from the east coast. Regardless of
track, however, impacts in the way of heightened rip current risks
and dangerous boating and surf conditions are to be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 12z Tues/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Not an easy forecast this morning as a mixed
bag of VFR to LIFR persist across the region, though all
terminals are currently at MVFR or below as a mix of low
stratus and patchy fog has developed. General expectation into
daybreak is for widespread IFR and LIFR across all terminals
and much of the area as continued low clouds and patchy fog
remain across ENC. Some scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity will also remain possible this morning across the
Crystal Coast and OBX. As we get further into the day on Mon
expect fog to dissipate and clouds to lift with a brief return
to VFR conditions across the area by late morning. However as
we get into the afternoon, a S`ward moving cold front will once
again bring a threat for sub-VFR conditions to the area as
shower and tstm activity overspread ENC, although highest
concentration of activity will be south of a line from EWN to
GWW. Front then continues south overnight eventually pushing
offshore late tonight ending the precip threat. Another round of
patchy fog and low clouds will once again be possible given the
saturated soils from todays activity. Greatest threat area
remains around ISO/OAJ terminals Mon night for reduced vis and
ceilings.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 PM Sunday...The
pattern remains unsettled, which will present multiple
opportunities for sub-VFR conditions through the period.
Multiple instances of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, fog, and low
status can be expected. Eventually by midweek drier and cooler
conditions will move in and lead to mostly VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 345 AM Mon...Dense fog has developed along our northern
OBX waters overnight so currently have a marine dense fog
advisory out which is forecast to end at 8AM this morning if
not sooner. Otherwise, not much change in the forecast as
outside of convection, which could be widespread at times today,
favorable marine conditions will exist through Tuesday as a
weak cold front moves across the area. The front is currently
located along the NOBX and will slowly sag southward today and
eventually push off the coast and away from our coastal waters
tonight. To the north of the front winds will turn to the NE/N
at 5-10 kts, while to the south of the front winds will remain
SW at 5-15 kts. Winds wil eventually become N-NE`rly at 5-10 kts
across all waters tonight. Seas are expected to be 2-3 ft
through tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Sub- SCA conditions are expected through
the period. Tuesday through Thursday will have winds out of the
NE around 10-15 kt. Seas remain around 2-3 ft until Thursday
afternoon when some 4 footers start to build across the outer
central waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 AM Monday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected again this afternoon. With already saturated soils from
4-10" of rain this week and efficient rainfall rates, flash
flooding will continue to be a concern and have issued a flood
watch from 10 AM to 10 PM for all but, Martin, Washington,
Tyrell, Dare, Hatteras Island, and Ocracoke as most storms are
expected to be to the south of this area as the front has
already moved through these counties this morning.

River flooding will continue across many river basins including
the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as
several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into
next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for NCZ044-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX