233
FXUS62 KMHX 121012
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
612 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will slowly sag south across the Carolinas today
bringing yet another day of heavy rainfall and the threat for
flash flooding as the soils are already saturated. Cold front
pushes offshore tonight while high pressure builds in from the
north. High pressure will then remain over the Eastern Seaboard
into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM Mon...As expected, we have some scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity currently across portions of coastal
Onslow, Carteret and our OBX counties with additional rain and
thunderstorm activity noted across our coastal waters. Expect
this activity to continue off to the north and east eventually
moving away from ENC towards daybreak with some dry time
possible across the region. Otherwise warm and muggy conditions
persist with even some patchy fog noted across our SW`rn
counties this morning. Currently have an SPS out for this patchy
fog as visibilities could drop below 1 mile at times.

Cold front that has been draped across our area will slowly
make its way S`wards through the day today providing yet another
active day across ENC. CAM guidance suggests after a brief
period of downtime early this morning, we once again see
widespread shower and thunderstorm development across ENC from
mid morning into the afternoon with the exception of the far
northern reaches of the forecast area where drier air behind the
front will limit precip coverage. Heavy rain will be the main
threat as the high PWAT air remains over most of the area and
flash flooding will be possible due to the exceptionally high
rain rates. With latest HREF probs of 2+ inches of rainfall
over 12 hours well over 50% from Pitt, Beaufort, and mainland
Hyde Counties south and flash flood guidance sitting around 2
inches across much of the same area, have elected to post a
flash flood watch across these zones where the highest
likelihood of heavy rain persists. We will finally begin to see
the front push south this evening so do expect rainfall to
gradually diminish across our northern zones near sunset.
Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Cold front continues to push south through
the evening with rain and thunderstorm activity coming to an end
from north to south tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity
may linger across the Crystal Coast until about midnight but
after that, expecting a mostly dry forecast across the area for
the first time in just about a week. Patchy fog and low stratus
will once again be possible as well especially after midnight as
well across ENC while the area continues to remain warm but
slightly less muggy with lows only getting down into the upper
60s to mid 70s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 5 AM Monday...A drying trend will commence Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward
and high pressure builds into the area from the NW. However,
upper trough remains centered over the eastern CONUS with a
series of shortwave trough pushing across the area that will aid
in initiating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
at times. Greatest chances will be during the afternoon/evening
hours when instability is maximized. PWATs lower to around
1.25-1.5" on Tuesday and below 1.25" on Wednesday so storms will
not be the prolific rain makes that we have been experiencing
over the past week. Temps will actually be a couple of degrees
below normal with highs in the mid 80s and it won`t be quite as
oppressive humidity with dew point temps in the mid to upper
60s.


The upper trough pushes off the East Coast Thursday and Friday
with upper ridging building in from the west. We will be closely
watching the current PTC #5, likely to become Ernesto later
today, as it pushes across the Caribbean Island through the
week. Current NHC forecast is for it to lift north of the
Greater Antilles as it interacts with the departing upper trough
and track well east of the area late in the week. While we are
not expecting direct impacts from this system at this time,
large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing an
increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday and
continuing through the weekend. Locally, high pressure will
continue to dominate across the area and we will finally get a
couple of days to dry out. Temps will continue slightly below
normal with highs in the mid 80s and dew point temps in the mid
60s.

An upper low moves into the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend
with an upper trough digging back into the East Coast and a cold
front slowly advancing toward the area bringing increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday
and Sunday. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally in
the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 12z Tues/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Not an easy forecast this morning as a mixed
bag of VFR to LIFR persist across the region, though all
terminals are currently at MVFR or below as a mix of low
stratus and patchy fog has developed. General expectation into
daybreak is for widespread IFR and LIFR across all terminals
and much of the area as continued low clouds and patchy fog
remain across ENC. Some scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity will also remain possible this morning across the
Crystal Coast and OBX. As we get further into the day on Mon
expect fog to dissipate and clouds to lift with a brief return
to VFR conditions across the area by late morning. However as
we get into the afternoon, a S`ward moving cold front will once
again bring a threat for sub-VFR conditions to the area as
shower and tstm activity overspread ENC, although highest
concentration of activity will be south of a line from EWN to
GWW. Front then continues south overnight eventually pushing
offshore late tonight ending the precip threat. Another round of
patchy fog and low clouds will once again be possible given the
saturated soils from todays activity. Greatest threat area
remains around ISO/OAJ terminals Mon night for reduced vis and
ceilings.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 530 AM Monday...Chances for sub-VFR conditions will
gradually diminish through the week as high pressure builds in
and we finally begin to dry out. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms chances continue Tuesday into Wednesday that
could bring brief sub-VFR conditions with dry weather expected
Thursday and Friday. Light winds and good radiational cooling
conditions will continue to bring the chance for late
night/early morning fog and stratus most morning, especially
giving the saturated ground.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 345 AM Mon...Dense fog has developed along our northern
OBX waters overnight so currently have a marine dense fog
advisory out which is forecast to end at 8AM this morning if
not sooner. Otherwise, not much change in the forecast as
outside of convection, which could be widespread at times today,
favorable marine conditions will exist through Tuesday as a
weak cold front moves across the area. The front is currently
located along the NOBX and will slowly sag southward today and
eventually push off the coast and away from our coastal waters
tonight. To the north of the front winds will turn to the NE/N
at 5-10 kts, while to the south of the front winds will remain
SW at 5-15 kts. Winds wil eventually become N-NE`rly at 5-10 kts
across all waters tonight. Seas are expected to be 2-3 ft
through tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 6 AM Monday...Good boating conditions through much of the
week with high pressure building into the area bringing NE winds
around 5-15 kt through Friday. Wind finally begin to veer to E
and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore.
Seas will generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday but
then we will begin to see long period swells from soon to be
Ernesto begin to move into the waters late Friday which will
build through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 AM Monday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected again this afternoon. With already saturated soils from
4-10" of rain this week and efficient rainfall rates, flash
flooding will continue to be a concern and have issued a flood
watch from 10 AM to 10 PM for all but, Martin, Washington,
Tyrell, Dare, Hatteras Island, and Ocracoke as most storms are
expected to be to the south of this area as the front has
already moved through these counties this morning.

River flooding will continue across many river basins including
the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as
several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into
next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for NCZ044-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX