Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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233 FXUS62 KMHX 121012 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 612 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front will slowly sag south across the Carolinas today bringing yet another day of heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding as the soils are already saturated. Cold front pushes offshore tonight while high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure will then remain over the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM Mon...As expected, we have some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity currently across portions of coastal Onslow, Carteret and our OBX counties with additional rain and thunderstorm activity noted across our coastal waters. Expect this activity to continue off to the north and east eventually moving away from ENC towards daybreak with some dry time possible across the region. Otherwise warm and muggy conditions persist with even some patchy fog noted across our SW`rn counties this morning. Currently have an SPS out for this patchy fog as visibilities could drop below 1 mile at times. Cold front that has been draped across our area will slowly make its way S`wards through the day today providing yet another active day across ENC. CAM guidance suggests after a brief period of downtime early this morning, we once again see widespread shower and thunderstorm development across ENC from mid morning into the afternoon with the exception of the far northern reaches of the forecast area where drier air behind the front will limit precip coverage. Heavy rain will be the main threat as the high PWAT air remains over most of the area and flash flooding will be possible due to the exceptionally high rain rates. With latest HREF probs of 2+ inches of rainfall over 12 hours well over 50% from Pitt, Beaufort, and mainland Hyde Counties south and flash flood guidance sitting around 2 inches across much of the same area, have elected to post a flash flood watch across these zones where the highest likelihood of heavy rain persists. We will finally begin to see the front push south this evening so do expect rainfall to gradually diminish across our northern zones near sunset. Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Mon...Cold front continues to push south through the evening with rain and thunderstorm activity coming to an end from north to south tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity may linger across the Crystal Coast until about midnight but after that, expecting a mostly dry forecast across the area for the first time in just about a week. Patchy fog and low stratus will once again be possible as well especially after midnight as well across ENC while the area continues to remain warm but slightly less muggy with lows only getting down into the upper 60s to mid 70s tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 5 AM Monday...A drying trend will commence Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure builds into the area from the NW. However, upper trough remains centered over the eastern CONUS with a series of shortwave trough pushing across the area that will aid in initiating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times. Greatest chances will be during the afternoon/evening hours when instability is maximized. PWATs lower to around 1.25-1.5" on Tuesday and below 1.25" on Wednesday so storms will not be the prolific rain makes that we have been experiencing over the past week. Temps will actually be a couple of degrees below normal with highs in the mid 80s and it won`t be quite as oppressive humidity with dew point temps in the mid to upper 60s. The upper trough pushes off the East Coast Thursday and Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. We will be closely watching the current PTC #5, likely to become Ernesto later today, as it pushes across the Caribbean Island through the week. Current NHC forecast is for it to lift north of the Greater Antilles as it interacts with the departing upper trough and track well east of the area late in the week. While we are not expecting direct impacts from this system at this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. Locally, high pressure will continue to dominate across the area and we will finally get a couple of days to dry out. Temps will continue slightly below normal with highs in the mid 80s and dew point temps in the mid 60s. An upper low moves into the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend with an upper trough digging back into the East Coast and a cold front slowly advancing toward the area bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday and Sunday. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 12z Tues/... As of 330 AM Mon...Not an easy forecast this morning as a mixed bag of VFR to LIFR persist across the region, though all terminals are currently at MVFR or below as a mix of low stratus and patchy fog has developed. General expectation into daybreak is for widespread IFR and LIFR across all terminals and much of the area as continued low clouds and patchy fog remain across ENC. Some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will also remain possible this morning across the Crystal Coast and OBX. As we get further into the day on Mon expect fog to dissipate and clouds to lift with a brief return to VFR conditions across the area by late morning. However as we get into the afternoon, a S`ward moving cold front will once again bring a threat for sub-VFR conditions to the area as shower and tstm activity overspread ENC, although highest concentration of activity will be south of a line from EWN to GWW. Front then continues south overnight eventually pushing offshore late tonight ending the precip threat. Another round of patchy fog and low clouds will once again be possible given the saturated soils from todays activity. Greatest threat area remains around ISO/OAJ terminals Mon night for reduced vis and ceilings. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 530 AM Monday...Chances for sub-VFR conditions will gradually diminish through the week as high pressure builds in and we finally begin to dry out. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms chances continue Tuesday into Wednesday that could bring brief sub-VFR conditions with dry weather expected Thursday and Friday. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus most morning, especially giving the saturated ground. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 345 AM Mon...Dense fog has developed along our northern OBX waters overnight so currently have a marine dense fog advisory out which is forecast to end at 8AM this morning if not sooner. Otherwise, not much change in the forecast as outside of convection, which could be widespread at times today, favorable marine conditions will exist through Tuesday as a weak cold front moves across the area. The front is currently located along the NOBX and will slowly sag southward today and eventually push off the coast and away from our coastal waters tonight. To the north of the front winds will turn to the NE/N at 5-10 kts, while to the south of the front winds will remain SW at 5-15 kts. Winds wil eventually become N-NE`rly at 5-10 kts across all waters tonight. Seas are expected to be 2-3 ft through tonight. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 6 AM Monday...Good boating conditions through much of the week with high pressure building into the area bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt through Friday. Wind finally begin to veer to E and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore. Seas will generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday but then we will begin to see long period swells from soon to be Ernesto begin to move into the waters late Friday which will build through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 AM Monday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected again this afternoon. With already saturated soils from 4-10" of rain this week and efficient rainfall rates, flash flooding will continue to be a concern and have issued a flood watch from 10 AM to 10 PM for all but, Martin, Washington, Tyrell, Dare, Hatteras Island, and Ocracoke as most storms are expected to be to the south of this area as the front has already moved through these counties this morning. River flooding will continue across many river basins including the NE Cape Fear, Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ044-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/RCF MARINE...SK/RCF HYDROLOGY...MHX