Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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893
FXUS62 KMHX 160218
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1018 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will gradually shift
offshore by Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Cold front will then track across the Carolinas Sunday into
Monday bringing our next threat for unsettled weather to the
area. Swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto will begin impacting
the coast starting Friday and persisting into the weekend,
bringing a threat for an elevated rip current risk and coastal
impacts. High pressure then builds in from the north and west
early next week once again bringing fair weather to ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Thursday...

 - Below normal temperatures tonight

Nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery this evening
reveals a very dry airmass located across ENC beneath surface
high pressure. There are some high clouds streaming southeast
across the region, but for the most part, good radiational
cooling conditions appear to be present. I expect good
radiational cooling conditions to continue, and the below normal
temp forecast for tonight still looks solid. With very low T/Td
spreads noted, I opted to add in a patchy fog mention
overnight. However, guidance continue to suggest the risk of
dense, impactful fog, is low (<10% chance).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The upper trough is working its way
offshore, which is the key steering flow feature responsible for
keeping Hurricane Ernesto from making a closer approach to the
East Coast. Upper ridging will start building over the eastern
US today and work with surface high pressure to sustain mostly
dry conditions through the period. Radiational cooling will take
place tonight and aid temps in reaching the low to mid 60s
across the coastal plain and low 70s along the beaches. A lack
of cloud cover and light winds overnight might allow some patchy
ditch fog to form, but it shouldn`t be widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...High pressure remains dominant tomorrow
and continues a mostly dry forecast. Some very isolated showers
are possible along the seabreeze, but a fairly dry column will
preclude any mentionable PoPs in the forecast. Plenty of
insolation will allow highs to reach the upper 80s across the
coastal plain and low to mid 80s along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thu...A drying trend will cont through the week as
high pressure remains overhead. A cold front and trough approach
on the weekend with increasing shower and storm chances,
peaking Sunday.

Friday through Sunday...The initial upper trough shifts off the
East Coast through Friday with upper ridging building in from
the west. NHC guidance continues to take Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto well off the NC coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night
through the weekend. At the same time, another trough will dig
south from the Great Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a cold
front moving into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it
increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms across the
region. Fcst is pop-free through Fri, then aforementioned trough
and cold front bring threat for shower and storms. A small
threat exists mainly for interior zones later Sat, but Sun
appears the best chance for precip as 00/15Z guidance in good
agreement now. Could be a severe threat as well, with ML CAPES
per ECM guidance indicative of values over 2k J/KG and deep
layer shear aoa 30 kt.

Monday...Upr trough remains west of the region with the front
stalling through Monday. Therefore, chances for precip cont, and
have advertised 40-50% pops.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Cold front expected to push through,
thus precip chances wane and mostly dry and cooler conditions
are expected. Temps drop back down to near climo, with highs in
the 80s, and lows mainly in the 60s (low 70s coast).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Saturday/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...

 - Risk of significant aviation impacts remains low through
   Friday

High pressure will slide east across eastern NC through the
night, then shift offshore on Friday. Beneath the high, light
winds and mostly clear skies may support a period of sub-VFR
VIS (due to BR/MIFG). Probabilistic guidance show even less of a
signal tonight compared to last night. In light of this, and
given the dry airmass in place, I`ve opted to continue with a
VFR TAF through the night. If BR/MIFG were to develop, the main
window of concern is expected from 08z-12z. VFR conditions are
expected to continue through Friday. Afternoon cumulus
development is expected, like today, but the risk of SHRA
appears LOW (<10% chance).

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Dry weather expected through Friday, then
unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good
radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance
for late night/early morning patchy fog and stratus most
mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Cold front
will move into the area by this weekend, yielding increasing
chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms possible,
especially on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1000 PM Thursday...

 - Ernest swell begins to impact the coastal waters on Friday

The going marine forecast is solid, and no changes are needed.
Of note, looking around the western Atlantic, the South Hatteras
buoy (225 NM south of Cape Hatteras) is observing a significant
wave wave height of 6ft at 16s, which gives an idea of the
strength of the long-period swell emanating from Hurricane
Ernesto, which will eventually reach the ENC coastal waters over
the next few days.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Marine conditions begin deteriorating
late tonight as the long period (14-16 sec) swell from distant
Hurricane Ernesto starts to creep into our coastal waters. Seas
are currently 2-3 ft but will be increasing through late
tomorrow when waves peak around 8-9 ft in the central waters,
5-7 ft in the northern waters, and 5-8 ft in the southern
waters. SCAs are in effect for all coastal waters starting
between 12-15Z tomorrow morning and lasting through the weekend.
Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the northeast through Friday
morning and start veering to the east by early evening.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to
Bermuda this weekend. Seas will generally be around 2 to 4 ft
through early Friday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells
could impact the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long
period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous
at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular
swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and
east facing inlets along the NC coast. Have hoisted SCA`s for
the coastal waters beginning Friday morning, with seas peaking
at 8-9 ft Friday night, then only slowly subsiding through this
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 PM Thu...The Northeast Cape Fear River near Chinquapin
has fallen below flood stage and the Neuse River at Kinston has
reached moderate flood stage. River flooding will continue
across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent,
Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River
flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as
the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont,
upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the sounds
and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river
flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting
until late week or this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 PM Thu...Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to pass well to
the east late week into this weekend. Strong long period swells
from distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides,
which will likely lead to several coastal hazards starting
Friday and persisting through the weekend. Dangerous rip
currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is
also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where
dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern
will be Friday afternoon/evening into early next week. A High
Surf Advisory is in effect starting at 2 PM Friday from Oregon
Inlet to Surf City for dangerous breaking waves of 6-9 ft. In
addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect starting at 2 PM
Friday from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout for 1-2 feet of
inundation. Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and
Hatteras Islands will be most susceptible to impacts from beach
erosion and ocean overwash.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX