Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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920 FXUS62 KMHX 130517 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 117 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front pushes offshore tonight while high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure will then remain over the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 115 AM Tue...No significant changes were made on this update outside of speeding up the start time of patchy fog across the region. Otherwise muggy and warm conditions are expected for the rest of tonight with continued patchy fog across areas along and west of Hwy 17 tonight. Previous Disco...As of 345 PM Monday... - Heavy rain/flooding risk continues through early this evening - Flood Watch in effect until 10pm tonight - Overnight fog potential Early this afternoon, an area of low pressure was analyzed near Columbia, SC. A stationary frontal boundary extends from central SC east out into the SW Atlantic. North of the SFC boundary, there appears to be an elevated (925-850mb) front from Charlotte east through around Morehead City. It`s this boundary, plus a modest upper level shortwave aloft, that will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Based on radar and satellite trends, it appears the greatest risk of deeper convection will be focused along and south of HWY 264. The previous shift nicely outlined this area with the Flood Watch, and this continues to look solid. In the wake of this afternoon`s shortwave, subsidence and drying aloft should lead to a decreasing chance of thunderstorms from north to south. If sufficient clearing occurs overnight, there will be an increased risk of fog development. A period of dense fog cannot be ruled out, especially across the coastal plain. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 PM Monday... - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible Any areas of fog should mix out by mid-morning, with several hours of dry conditions expected through early afternoon. By mid to late- afternoon, another shortwave aloft combined with lee troughing at the SFC should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. I expect the primary focus to be upstream across central NC, but storms may have a tendency to move east into the coastal plain of ENC thanks to increasing flow aloft. Instability is forecast to be weaker on Tuesday compared to today, but deep layer shear will be stronger, so there`s at least some support for a stronger storm, or two. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 5 AM Monday...A drying trend will commence mid-week as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure builds into the area from the NW. However, upper trough remains centered over the eastern CONUS with a series of shortwave trough pushing across the area that will aid in initiating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times. Greatest chances will be during the afternoon/evening hours when instability is maximized. PWATs lower to below 1.25" on Wednesday so storms will not be the prolific rain makes that we have been experiencing over the past week. Temps will actually be a couple of degrees below normal with highs in the mid 80s and it won`t be quite as oppressive humidity with dew point temps in the mid to upper 60s. The upper trough pushes off the East Coast Thursday and Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. We will be closely watching the current PTC #5, likely to become Ernesto later today, as it pushes across the Caribbean Island through the week. Current NHC forecast is for it to lift north of the Greater Antilles as it interacts with the departing upper trough and track well east of the area late in the week. While we are not expecting direct impacts from this system at this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. Locally, high pressure will continue to dominate across the area and we will finally get a couple of days to dry out. Temps will continue slightly below normal with highs in the mid 80s and dew point temps in the mid 60s. An upper low moves into the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend with an upper trough digging back into the East Coast and a cold front slowly advancing toward the area bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday and Sunday. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 06z Tuesday/... As of 115 AM Tue... Mo clear skies and a mix of VFR and MVFR visibilities are currently noted across ENC this evening. With recent rains across the area, light winds, and mo clear skies, still expect some combo of either low stratus or patchy fog to overspread much of the area along and west of Hwy 17 resulting in at least a general threat for widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings/vis for the remainder of tonight into daybreak across those areas. HREF probs still show a low end threat (20-30%) of LIFR vis but given the recent trends have elected to cap lowest Vis at IFR. Areas east of Hwy 17 likely staying at VFR/MVFR as winds are slightly stronger here thus reducing the patchy fog threat. As we get into the morning on Tue any leftover fog will burn off and a SCT deck of diurnal Cu should gradually overspread the area Tue afternoon but ceilings and vis should become VFR Tue morning and remain VFR through the rest of the period. Think TSRA potential will be very low (<15%) but a few showers could pop up tomorrow afternoon especially across the western TAF sites. Given the lower probability for showers and storms have kept any precip mention out of the TAFs for now. Light winds out of the NE early become slightly more Eerly through the day but are expected to remain AoB 10kt. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 530 AM Monday...Chances for sub-VFR conditions will gradually diminish through the week as high pressure builds in and we finally begin to dry out. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms chances continue into Wednesday that could bring brief sub-VFR conditions with dry weather expected Thursday and Friday. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus most morning, especially giving the saturated ground. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 2200 Monday...Front has sunk S, currently 50mi S of Cape Lookout, carrying the heaviest convection with it. Have lowered PoPs quite a bit through the overnight hours, but continue to carry at least SChc over the Sern waters. Previous Disco as of 215 PM Monday... - Improving boating conditions by Tuesday An upper level wave moving through will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across area waters through this evening, with a decreasing risk tonight into Tuesday. Outside of the thunderstorms, the area will be in a northeasterly flow of 5-15kt. The wind will be high enough to support 3-4 ft seas through Tuesday, but all things considered, conditions will be improving compared to the past several days. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 6 AM Monday...Good boating conditions through much of the week with high pressure building into the area bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt through Friday. Wind finally begin to veer to E and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore. Seas will generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday but then we will begin to see long period swells from soon to be Ernesto begin to move into the waters late Friday which will build through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 2200 Monday...Was able to cancel the flash flood watch early with convection pushing offshore faster than previously forecast. River flooding will continue across many river basins including the Trent, Neuse, New and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries to the rivers through the weekend and into next week with abundant rain falling will upstream of the FA. It should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late this week or this weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/CEB/RCF SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/RCF MARINE...RM/SK/CEB HYDROLOGY...MHX