986
FXUS62 KMHX 260121
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
921 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the next several
days. Dangerous heat will continue through tomorrow along with
the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical
summertime pattern returns late week and this weekend. Next
frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 845 PM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Thunderstorm risk diminishing this evening

Descent coverage of thunderstorms today, especially as outflow
from storms to the west pushed eastward across the ENC late
afternoon into the early evening. Remaining convection across
the northern half of the FA this evening is quickly diminishing
as we lose daytime heating and the BL stabilizes and expect dry
conditions after midnight. The storms have brought relief from
the oppressive heat allowing temps to drop into the mid 70s to
low 80s. The warmest temps this evening are in the mid 80s along
the OBX which remained east of the thunderstorm activity. Do
not expect too much additional cooling overnight with lows in
the low to mid 70s inland to around 80 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Another day of dangerous heat and humidity is
expected tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 90s, and heat
indices peaking at 105-110 in the afternoon. As a result a Heat
Advisory has been issued for all of Eastern NC, not only for the
forecasted heat indices, but taking into account the cumulative
effect of the past 4 days of extreme heat.

Within the moist and unstable environment tomorrow afternoon,
some airmass thunderstorm development is possible, but with
little in the way of upper level support, storm coverage should
be fairly scattered. Though strong lapse rates and large
instability values will be present, however meager wind shear
should limit storm organization.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat
   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)

Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the
upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid
90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of
several days with high heat indices (and little relief at
night) is something for those working or spending much time
outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the
heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea
breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development
each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors
pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level
support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Sunday, as
coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week, a
frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard. While it is
still uncertain if the front will stall to our west or blow
through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday Afternoon/...
As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages
 - Patchy MVFR fog possible early tomorrow morning

 - TSRA and sub VFR conditions possible Thursday afternoon.

Thunderstorm activity quickly diminishing late this evening with
loss of heating and a stabilizing BL and guidance generally
brings pred VFR conditions overnight. However, cannot rule out
patchy to areas of fog or stratus, especially in areas that saw
heavier rainfall this afternoon/evening, which was primarily SW
rtes, and feel ISO and OAJ have the better chances of seeing
reduced vsbys, and perhaps cigs, late tonight. Any fog or
stratus should dissipate by mid morning. Hot and unstable
conditions will develop again Thursday and widely scattered
thunderstorms could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions during
the mid to late afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds
light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR
level patchy fog will be possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Pleasant boating conditions will continue
through tomorrow with high pressure over the region. Winds this
afternoon/evening will be SW 5-10 kts south of Cape Hatteras and
E at 5-10 kts to the north. Winds then become S/SW everywhere
overnight, and tomorrow will strengthen to 5-15 kts. Seas will
be 2-3 ft through tomorrow

LONG TERM /Thursday Night though Monday/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Fantastic boating conditions are
expected this week as a ridge of high pressure lingers over the
region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which
will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength
and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are
expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and
evening to S/SW 10-15 kts in response to a developing sea
breeze. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
CLIMATE...MHX