829
FXUS62 KMHX 110210
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues off the coast while the remnants of
Beryl lifts across the eastern Great Lakes and a trailing cold
front approaches from the west tonight. The front will become
stalled across the region Thursday through the weekend with
moist southerly flow producing periods of heavy rain. The front
will dissipate early next week with hot temps and the potential
to heat indices in excess of 105 degrees returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1010 PM Wed...Band of tsra have formed in the RDU area
this evening, lined up ahead of approaching cold front. This
line of tsra will spread east and into the coastal plain
counties late tonight, while additional showers with some
thunder stream north off the Atlantic and into the coastal
counties. Inc pops to likelies a bit earlier, with most areas
seeing rain before daybreak Thu.

Prev disc...As of 730 PM Wed...Have let heat adv expire as heat
indices fallen below 105 degrees.

Prev disc...As of 335 PM Wednesday... Key Messages:
1) Overnight lows will be very warm tonight only falling into
the mid to upper 70s. Some locations may only drop to 80.

2) Very unsettled weather will begin late tonight (after
midnight) and persist into the weekend. Several inches of rain
are expected to fall during this period which should help to
ease the ongoing drought conditions.

Widely scattered showers (and possible thunderstorms) continue
this afternoon but coverage is very limited and this activity
will diminish rapidly by early evening with the loss of
heating. Dry weather will prevail through around midnight then
moisture is expected to increase out ahead of a trailing front
from the remnants of Beryl which will be in vicinity of the
eastern Great lakes overnight. This moisture should translate
into showers and possible thunderstorms after midnight becoming
more numerous around daybreak. Some of these showers will have
torrential downpours.

Temperatures will be sultry overnight. The combination of
southerly flow and increasing cloud cover will result in very
warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in most locations.
Late night rainfall may act to briefly cool a few locations down
into the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...Thursday will be be the beginning of
what is looking like a very wet period which could extend into
the weekend. The aforementioned front is forecast to stall over
or just west of the coastal plain. Ahead of the front a plume of
very moist air with PW values well in excess of 2" will
continue to flow over eastern NC. The atmosphere will be
moderately unstable with MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/kg. This will
result in periods of showers (and an occasional thunderstorm)
throughout the day. The showers and storms will have torrential
downpours. Areas that receive frequent downpours could have
urban/poor drainage flooding issues. It will continue to be
muggy but highs will be a little cooler than previous days
reaching the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Very wet period expected Thursday through the weekend, with heavy
rain chances likely (70-80%) at times with localized flooding
possible. Severe threat remains relatively low at this time.

-Warm temps continue, with Heat Indices near or just above 100F
every day outside of Friday. Starting on Monday heat indices of 105-
110 degrees are possible.

Wet and warm will be the story for the long term forecast as the
remnants of Beryl move into the northeastern US with a frontal
system extending southward into the Carolinas that becomes
nearly stationary for the end of the week through the weekend.
This feature will remain between high pressure offshore and
lower pressure to the north and west. This pattern will
facilitate extremely efficient moisture transport off of the
Atlantic over the Carolinas. This is highlighted by the ECMWF
extreme forecast index which is showing anomalously high
precipitation values over the Carolinas. In addition model
soundings show PW values approaching 2.5 inches at times. This
has resulted in WPC initiating a slight ER risk for Friday.
Highest rainfall totals for the next seven days could top out in
the 4-5 inch range, which would be a positive for the areas of
the state currently experiencing drought but at the same time
could bring flooding chances to some areas.

While there will also be a chance for thunderstorms each day, the
chances for severe weather remain underwhelming. While there will
certainly be enough moisture and instability to initiate
convection, shear values are lacking. Thus the heavy rain is the
primary threat during this time period.

Not to be overlooked in the long term is the threat for extreme
heat, particularly beginning on Sunday through the end of the
forecast period. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
inland with upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values
will push or exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations except
the extreme coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...Expecting sub VFR conditions to develop
late tonight and continue into Thu as very moist air ahead of a
slow moving, weak front results in scattered to numerous showers
with scattered thunderstorms. Expecting VFR to prevail through
the evening then MVFR ceilings are expected to develop 8-12Z Thu
and continue throughout at least the first part of the day.
Heavier downpours will reduce visibilities to IFR and the
heaviest showers could have wind gusts to 30 kt otherwise winds
are expected to be light except for this afternoon when gusts to
20 kt will occur.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...For Thursday night  and beyond expect
sub optimal aviation conditions as a very wet period begins
across eastern NC. Precipitation may be heavy at times affecting
ceilings and visibilities during the heaviest rainfall and
overnight periods. Rain is expected to continue through the
weekend before relenting early next week. Thunderstorms are also
possible during this time, particularly in the afternoons but
severe weather is unlikely. Winds will keep a southerly
component at 5-10 knots gusting to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...A prolonged period of low end SCA
conditions will begin on Thu and continue through Fri.

Moderate southerly winds 10-20 kt tonight will increase to 15-25
kt Thu ahead of slow moving, weak front. 2-4 ft seas will occur
tonight with some 5 ft seas late across the outer waters and
build to 4-7 ft Thu afternoon.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Chances for small craft advisory
across the central and southern waters are expected through
Saturday with wind gusts approaching 25 kts and seas near 6 ft
possible. Waves and winds will begin to relax on Saturday but
heavy rain is likely through the weekend before marine
conditions begin to mellow for early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...RTE/TL
MARINE...RTE/JME