Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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893 FXUS62 KMHX 160218 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1018 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will gradually shift offshore by Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. Cold front will then track across the Carolinas Sunday into Monday bringing our next threat for unsettled weather to the area. Swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto will begin impacting the coast starting Friday and persisting into the weekend, bringing a threat for an elevated rip current risk and coastal impacts. High pressure then builds in from the north and west early next week once again bringing fair weather to ENC. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Thursday... - Below normal temperatures tonight Nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery this evening reveals a very dry airmass located across ENC beneath surface high pressure. There are some high clouds streaming southeast across the region, but for the most part, good radiational cooling conditions appear to be present. I expect good radiational cooling conditions to continue, and the below normal temp forecast for tonight still looks solid. With very low T/Td spreads noted, I opted to add in a patchy fog mention overnight. However, guidance continue to suggest the risk of dense, impactful fog, is low (<10% chance). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The upper trough is working its way offshore, which is the key steering flow feature responsible for keeping Hurricane Ernesto from making a closer approach to the East Coast. Upper ridging will start building over the eastern US today and work with surface high pressure to sustain mostly dry conditions through the period. Radiational cooling will take place tonight and aid temps in reaching the low to mid 60s across the coastal plain and low 70s along the beaches. A lack of cloud cover and light winds overnight might allow some patchy ditch fog to form, but it shouldn`t be widespread. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...High pressure remains dominant tomorrow and continues a mostly dry forecast. Some very isolated showers are possible along the seabreeze, but a fairly dry column will preclude any mentionable PoPs in the forecast. Plenty of insolation will allow highs to reach the upper 80s across the coastal plain and low to mid 80s along the beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 4 AM Thu...A drying trend will cont through the week as high pressure remains overhead. A cold front and trough approach on the weekend with increasing shower and storm chances, peaking Sunday. Friday through Sunday...The initial upper trough shifts off the East Coast through Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. NHC guidance continues to take Tropical Cyclone Ernesto well off the NC coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night through the weekend. At the same time, another trough will dig south from the Great Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a cold front moving into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms across the region. Fcst is pop-free through Fri, then aforementioned trough and cold front bring threat for shower and storms. A small threat exists mainly for interior zones later Sat, but Sun appears the best chance for precip as 00/15Z guidance in good agreement now. Could be a severe threat as well, with ML CAPES per ECM guidance indicative of values over 2k J/KG and deep layer shear aoa 30 kt. Monday...Upr trough remains west of the region with the front stalling through Monday. Therefore, chances for precip cont, and have advertised 40-50% pops. Tuesday through Wednesday...Cold front expected to push through, thus precip chances wane and mostly dry and cooler conditions are expected. Temps drop back down to near climo, with highs in the 80s, and lows mainly in the 60s (low 70s coast). && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 00z Saturday/... As of 730 PM Thursday... - Risk of significant aviation impacts remains low through Friday High pressure will slide east across eastern NC through the night, then shift offshore on Friday. Beneath the high, light winds and mostly clear skies may support a period of sub-VFR VIS (due to BR/MIFG). Probabilistic guidance show even less of a signal tonight compared to last night. In light of this, and given the dry airmass in place, I`ve opted to continue with a VFR TAF through the night. If BR/MIFG were to develop, the main window of concern is expected from 08z-12z. VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday. Afternoon cumulus development is expected, like today, but the risk of SHRA appears LOW (<10% chance). LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Thu...Dry weather expected through Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning patchy fog and stratus most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Cold front will move into the area by this weekend, yielding increasing chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms possible, especially on Sunday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 1000 PM Thursday... - Ernest swell begins to impact the coastal waters on Friday The going marine forecast is solid, and no changes are needed. Of note, looking around the western Atlantic, the South Hatteras buoy (225 NM south of Cape Hatteras) is observing a significant wave wave height of 6ft at 16s, which gives an idea of the strength of the long-period swell emanating from Hurricane Ernesto, which will eventually reach the ENC coastal waters over the next few days. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Marine conditions begin deteriorating late tonight as the long period (14-16 sec) swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto starts to creep into our coastal waters. Seas are currently 2-3 ft but will be increasing through late tomorrow when waves peak around 8-9 ft in the central waters, 5-7 ft in the northern waters, and 5-8 ft in the southern waters. SCAs are in effect for all coastal waters starting between 12-15Z tomorrow morning and lasting through the weekend. Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the northeast through Friday morning and start veering to the east by early evening. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 4 AM Thu...Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda this weekend. Seas will generally be around 2 to 4 ft through early Friday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells could impact the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and east facing inlets along the NC coast. Have hoisted SCA`s for the coastal waters beginning Friday morning, with seas peaking at 8-9 ft Friday night, then only slowly subsiding through this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 4 PM Thu...The Northeast Cape Fear River near Chinquapin has fallen below flood stage and the Neuse River at Kinston has reached moderate flood stage. River flooding will continue across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the sounds and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 PM Thu...Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to pass well to the east late week into this weekend. Strong long period swells from distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely lead to several coastal hazards starting Friday and persisting through the weekend. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday afternoon/evening into early next week. A High Surf Advisory is in effect starting at 2 PM Friday from Oregon Inlet to Surf City for dangerous breaking waves of 6-9 ft. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect starting at 2 PM Friday from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout for 1-2 feet of inundation. Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands will be most susceptible to impacts from beach erosion and ocean overwash. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ195-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204-205. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RM/TL MARINE...RM/TL/OJC HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX