199
FXUS62 KMHX 140151
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
951 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging in from the north will remain over the
Eastern Seaboard through the end of the week before a front
begins to approach from the west this weekend bringing
increasing precipitation chances across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 2150 Tuesday...Have had to increase PoPs for the next few
hours over the Coastal Plain and Eward through the HWY264
corridor with shower activity persisting longer than previously
forecast.

Previous Disco as of 1850 Tuesday...Shortwave trough
axis aloft swinging over the coast now so am expecting shower
activity to completely wane by midnight. However, have added a
couple of hours of patchy light drizzle for the entire FA as we
have seen some reports of the precip finally reaching the ground
across area terminals. Very minor adjustments to sky grids to
acct for greater coverage and a slight reduction in hrly Ts
through the sunset period. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

As of 340 PM Tue...Very weak impulse of elevated showers is
passing over eastern NC this afternoon ahead of a area of
embedded shortwave energy in northwesterly flow. Seeing plenty
of returns on radar but very little ground reports of
precipitation likely owing to an area of mid-level subsidence
and dryness. Offered a low-end PoP as a few stations upstream
have reported very light rainfall.

Any leftover shower activity should quickly dissipate around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating and the dissipation of
surface troughing across the area. With surface high pressure
still overhead expecting light winds, mo clear skies, and a dry
forecast across ENC. Guidance is not excited about fog
potential, but given many soils around the area are effectively
a wet sponge, went for a more aggressive forecast. Lows tonight
get into the mid 60s to low 70s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tue...Weak high pressure remains over the area
tomorrow. Hi-res guidance shows another weak mid-level impulse
diving southward in the afternoon, and some CAMs show isolated
to scattered showers and a few storms developing ahead of this.
Model soundings only look modestly more moist, and introduced a
slight chance PoP for areas north of Highway 70. Highs tomorrow
similar to today, in the mid to upper 80s with Tds in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week as a
cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure
builds into the area from the northwest.

The upper trough pushes off the East Coast Thursday and Friday
with upper ridging building in from the west. We will be closely
monitoring Tropical Cyclone Ernesto, as it moves across the
northern Lesser Antilles to east of The Bahamas through the
week. While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at
this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches
bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning
Friday and continuing through the weekend. Locally, high
pressure will continue to dominate across the area and we will
finally get a couple of days to dry out. Temps will continue
slightly below normal with highs in the mid 80s and dew point
temps in the mid 60s.

An upper low moves into the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend
with an upper trough digging back into the East Coast and a cold
front slowly advancing toward the area bringing increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday
through Monday. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally
in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Thursday/...
As of 1920 Tuesday...Shower activity associated with the
passage of upper level trough axis impacted flying conditions
little with widespread VFR still in place outside of heavier
cells. Have added light drizzle for the first few hours across
the entire area as some of the light returns on radar are
producing precip obs across area terminals early this evening.

Fog signal is considerably weaker than the past few nights, but
given very light winds and abundant soil moisture leaned on the
more aggressive side of the forecast. Strongest signal is across
the coastal plain, between 08-12z. This TAF cycle have opted to
change the prevailing MVFR VIS lines for coastal TAF sites (EWN
and OAJ) to a tempo group as the models that are showing fog
developing keep it well W of HWY17 corridor.

Outside of convection, VFR through the day Wednesday with
NNEerly winds AoB 8kt and CU field AoA FL050. Best chances for
showers mid- afternoon into the evening for the inland TAF sites
and local aviation sites N of HWY 70, SChc PoPs at best.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 405 AM Tuesday...Chances for sub-VFR conditions will
gradually diminish through the week as high pressure builds in
and a drying trend develops. Dry weather expected Thursday and
Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light
winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to
bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus
most mornings, especially given the saturated ground.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/...
As of 345 PM Tue...No inclement boating conditions are expected
in the short term as weak high pressure builds in behind the
stalled frontal boundary to our south. Regional observations
show seas of 3-4 feet with north to northeasterly winds around
5-10 kt, and this will change little tomorrow as pattern remains
stagnant. Seas will edge slightly lower tomorrow, reaching
about 2 feet areawide by sunset Wednesday.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 410 AM Tuesday...Good boating conditions through much of
the week with high pressure building into the area bringing NE
winds around 5-15 kt through Friday. Winds begin to veer to E
and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and
Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will
generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday but then we
will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells from
Ernesto move into the waters late Friday which will build
through Saturday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions
particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides
and perpendicular swell energy, especially for southeast and
east facing inlets along the NC coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 410 AM Tuesday...Only small changes in the river flood
threat as river flooding will continue across many river basins
in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as
well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through
the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that
occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area,
makes its way towards the Sounds and coast. It should be noted
that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with
some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM Tue...TS Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a
hurricane in the next few days and pass well to the east late
week and this weekend. However, strong long period swells from
distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides, which
will likely lead to several coastal hazards. Dangerous rip
currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is
also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp where
dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern
will be Friday into early next week. More specifics will be
provided over the next few days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/MS/CEB
MARINE...DAG/MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX