Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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458 FXUS62 KMHX 140516 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 116 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging in from the north will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the week before a front begins to approach from the west this weekend bringing increasing precipitation chances across the area. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Wed... Made some minor tweaks to add in Schc PoPs across portions of mainland Hyde, Dare and the OBX north of Ocracoke for the next 1-2 hours given the latest radar presentation. Otherwise we will continue to gradually clear as previously mentioned shortwave continues off the coast with at least a low end threat for some patchy fog early Wed morning. Previous Disco as of 1850 Tuesday...Shortwave trough axis aloft swinging over the coast now so am expecting shower activity to completely wane by midnight. However, have added a couple of hours of patchy light drizzle for the entire FA as we have seen some reports of the precip finally reaching the ground across area terminals. Very minor adjustments to sky grids to acct for greater coverage and a slight reduction in hrly Ts through the sunset period. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 340 PM Tue...Very weak impulse of elevated showers is passing over eastern NC this afternoon ahead of a area of embedded shortwave energy in northwesterly flow. Seeing plenty of returns on radar but very little ground reports of precipitation likely owing to an area of mid-level subsidence and dryness. Offered a low-end PoP as a few stations upstream have reported very light rainfall. Any leftover shower activity should quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating and the dissipation of surface troughing across the area. With surface high pressure still overhead expecting light winds, mo clear skies, and a dry forecast across ENC. Guidance is not excited about fog potential, but given many soils around the area are effectively a wet sponge, went for a more aggressive forecast. Lows tonight get into the mid 60s to low 70s once again. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday/... As of 345 PM Tue...Weak high pressure remains over the area tomorrow. Hi-res guidance shows another weak mid- level impulse diving southward in the afternoon, and some CAMs show isolated to scattered showers and a few storms developing ahead of this. Model soundings only look modestly more moist, and introduced a slight chance PoP for areas north of Highway 70. Highs tomorrow similar to today, in the mid to upper 80s with Tds in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 4 AM Tuesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. The upper trough pushes off the East Coast Thursday and Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. We will be closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Ernesto, as it moves across the northern Lesser Antilles to east of The Bahamas through the week. While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. Locally, high pressure will continue to dominate across the area and we will finally get a couple of days to dry out. Temps will continue slightly below normal with highs in the mid 80s and dew point temps in the mid 60s. An upper low moves into the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend with an upper trough digging back into the East Coast and a cold front slowly advancing toward the area bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday through Monday. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday night/... As of 110 AM Wed...Ongoing mid and high level cloud cover should gradually diminish over the next few hours as previously mentioned shortwave moves further offshore. This should allow for at least a low end threat for some patchy fog especially along and west of Hwy 17 as calm winds and saturated soils prime the area. Guidance continues to remain rather optimistic about not seeing any fog but given the environment, stuck to the previous thinking. Current forecast reflects MVFR vis ~4 miles after 08Z for PGV/ISO, MVFR vis ~4 miles for OAJ after 09Z, and a TEMPO MVFR group for EWN after 09z where the lowest confidence is in seeing reduced vis. After daybreak expect any patchy fog to quickly dissipate and for VFR ceilings and vis to persist across ENC with a diurnal Cu field setting up around 3.5-5 kft late this morning and persisting into the evening hours before gradually dissipating. Another round of iso showers/tstms will be possible after about 18Z once again, mainly along and west of Hwy 17 as yet another shortwave moves across the area but given limited coverage of activity, no mention of precip in the TAFs just yet. Continued light winds expected through the entire period generally around 5 kts coming from the NE on Wed. By Wed evening any leftover shower and tstm activity should gradually dissipate by about midnight at the latest with clearing skies and light winds expected once again across ENC. LONG TERM /Thursday through Saturday/... As of 405 AM Tuesday...Chances for sub-VFR conditions will gradually diminish through the week as high pressure builds in and a drying trend develops. Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/... As of 345 PM Tue...No inclement boating conditions are expected in the short term as weak high pressure builds in behind the stalled frontal boundary to our south. Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with north to northeasterly winds around 5-10 kt, and this will change little tomorrow as pattern remains stagnant. Seas will edge slightly lower tomorrow, reaching about 2 feet areawide by sunset Wednesday. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 410 AM Tuesday...Good boating conditions through much of the week with high pressure building into the area bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt through Friday. Winds begin to veer to E and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday but then we will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells from Ernesto move into the waters late Friday which will build through Saturday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy, especially for southeast and east facing inlets along the NC coast. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 410 AM Tuesday...Only small changes in the river flood threat as river flooding will continue across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the Sounds and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM Tue...TS Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in the next few days and pass well to the east late week and this weekend. However, strong long period swells from distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely lead to several coastal hazards. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp where dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday into early next week. More specifics will be provided over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/CEB/RCF SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/RCF MARINE...DAG/MS HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX