Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
144 FXUS62 KMHX 081125 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 725 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime conditions are expected today. This will be followed up by a series of upper level systems that will push across the area bringing unsettled weather through the rest of the work-week. A backdoor front approaches the area this weekend, keeping active pattern in place. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 200 AM Tuesday... Key Messages - Increased heat risk today - A few marginally severe thunderstorms possible along the seabreeze this afternoon and evening A modest south to southwest LLJ will develop today east of the low- level trough in the lee of the Appalachians. This will help draw a deeper layer of moisture into the Carolinas, with PWATs forecast to reach 2" by this afternoon. Meanwhile, heating of a very moist boundary layer should support MLCAPE climbing to 2000-3000 j/kg ahead of the seabreeze. With ridging aloft, flow in the mid and upper levels will be fairly weak, which will keep effective shear on the weaker side (ie. <20kt). This should set the stage for a typical July afternoon with isolated to scattered pulse convection developing along the developing seabreeze. Despite weak shear, the moderate to strong instability appears supportive of some taller cores where low- level convergence is maximized. Based on the forecast environment, the most sustained cores should be capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts and hail up to half inch size. Slow storm motions plus increased moisture within the column should allow some heavier rainfall rates to develop beneath the strongest cores as well. However, the overall lack of stronger lift and a lower risk of sustained convection should keep the risk of flooding at a minimum. Dewpoints this morning are a few degrees higher than this time yesterday, and with a moist southerly flow off the Atlantic, I expect dewpoints will end up peaking higher than they did yesterday. Low-level thicknesses are forecast to take a bump up today as well, which spells an increased risk of 105+ heat indices. Based on this, the Heat Advisory that is currently in effect continues to look solid for our area, and no changes to the headline are planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Tuesday... Isolated to scattered seabreeze convection should be shifting further inland away from ENC by this evening, with dry conditions for most. Later tonight, continued low-mid level moisture advection may support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially along the coast. Otherwise, a warm southerly flow and partly to mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures very mild. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 0445 Tuesday...A similar set up is expected for Wednesday, with a similar threat of strong to severe storms over the coastal plain. ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE coupled with meager bulk shear will limit the overall severe threat. SPC has the far western portions of the CWA in a marginal risk, mainly for the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts due to possibility of water loading stronger updrafts. Elevated PWATs will continue to support a risk for heavy rainfall and isolated flooding, with WPC having a marginal ERO for the western forecast area on Wednesday. With increasing thicknesses due to the building ridge, the warm temps are forecast to continue into Wednesday with MaxTs in the low 90s inland from the coast, however Tds in the low 70s should keep heat indices out of Heat Advisory range (max AppT<105deg). A series of shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring an unsettled pattern across the region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has marginal EROs for Days 2-4 for at least portions of the forecast area. At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few storms producing strong wind gusts. Temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees below climo. This weekend, a backdoor front slowly sags down the MidAtlantic coast, approaching the area but currently forecast to remain near the NC/VA border. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Wednesday/... As of 715 AM Tuesday... Key Messages - Transient areas of LIFR/IFR CIGs early this morning - Slight increase in TSRA risk today (20-30% chance) - Increased risk of sub VFR CIGs this evening and tonight Over the past few hours, an area of low CIGs has developed across western portions of ENC. Within this area, conditions are a mix of LIFR and IFR. These low CIGs are expected to persist through about 12-13z, then begin to lift and mix out. The main impact should be to KOAJ and KISO. Moving into this afternoon, a fairly typical summertime seabreeze forecast appears in store, with a bump in southerly winds as the seabreeze passes, and a chance of TSRA. It appears that the coverage of TSRA will be slightly higher compared to yesterday, but it should be noted that confidence in TSRA activity today is low to moderate. For now I`ll continue to show PROB30 groups at KOAJ and KISO where confidence is a bit higher compared to KEWN and KPGV. Moving into tonight, the risk of sub VFR CIGs appears to be increasing, with ensemble guidance suggesting a 50-70% chance of this occurring. This seems very reasonable given the expectation for increased low-level moisture advection tonight. Given this signal, I`ve added in a SCT or BKN sub VFR layer starting this evening. Should the signal hold, further adjustments would be needed. A risk of isolated SHRA and TSRA may linger into tonight as well, but especially along the coast. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 0430 Tuesday...A series of mid-level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0430 Tuesday...SW winds 10-15kt early, building to 15-20G25kt as pressure gradient tightens between the inland thermal trough and offshore high pressure with daytime heating. Seas 2-4 ft seas early, fall down through the morning to 2-3ft but pick back up to 3-5ft late this afternoon in response to the strengthening winds. 1-2ft weakening ESEerly swell (14-15sec early, 10-11sec by sunset) underneath the 2-4ft SSWerly wind waves (5-6sec). Have issued a marginal SCA for Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke sounds for this afternoon through the first half of tonight for 25kt gusts. Localized SCA conditions are possible for the nearshore coastal waters from Oregon Inlet Nward towards Duck, but these are not expected to be very long lived and do not cover enough of the zone to warrant an SCA issuance. With that said, don`t be surprised if day shift issues one for these waters. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 0430 Tuesday...High pressure remains centered over the Wern Atlantic this week with a series of systems pushing across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW winds around 10-20 kt (occasionally higher gusts possible), highest in the late afternoon and evening with thermal gradient peaking. Seas generally around 3-4 ft during the long term period, however the dominant period through at least midweek will be on the shorter wind wave side, 5-6sec. So, expect bumpy 3-4ft wind waves out of the S/SW on top of weakening 1-2ft long period swell out of the east. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...RM/CEB MARINE...CEB