351
FXUS62 KMHX 141410
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in from the north will remain over the
Eastern Seaboard through late week before a front begins to
approach from the west this weekend bringing increasing
precipitation chances across the area. Swells from distant
Tropical Storm Ernesto will begin impacting the coast starting
Friday and persisting into the weekend, bringing a threat for
elevated rip current risk and coastal impacts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1010 AM Wed...Forecast is in excellent shape this morning
as high pressure continues to weakly ridge into the area from
the north. Upper level cyclonic flow persists and eyes are on a
weak embedded shortwave diving out of the Ohio Valley, which
will provide just enough lift for a few very spotty showers, and
possibly a rumble of thunder or two as CAPEs climb to between
500-1000 J/kg. 12Z MHX sounding measured a drier-than-average
atmosphere with a PWAT of 1.25" (normal for this time of year is
closer to 1.6"), so not expecting any storms to be prolific
rainmakers - a welcome respite after the past week`s deluge.

Previous PoPs look strong and offered no changes. Forecast
highs today reach into the mid to upper 80s, except upper 70s to
low 80s across NOBX as is typical in northeasterly post-frontal
flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Aforementioned shortwave will be
pushing off the coast tonight and any leftover shower and
thunderstorm activity should quickly end from north to south
prior to midnight. This will once again allow for skies to clear
across the area. This combined with calm winds and a moist
boundary layer will bring yet another threat for patchy fog
development, mainly along and west of Hwy 17 with timing for fog
development likely after midnight. The only other thing to note
with tonight`s forecast is given the expectation for mo clear
skies and calm winds, a good radiational cooling setup is
forecast tonight. With this in mind, have lowered temps slightly
tonight below most guidance to account for this with lows in
the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 60s along the OBX and
immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week
as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure
builds into the area from the northwest.

The upper trough shifts off the East Coast Thursday and Friday
with upper ridging building in from the west. NHC guidance
continues to take Tropical Cyclone Ernesto well off the NC
coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night through the weekend. At
the same time, another trough will dig south from the Great
Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a weak frontal feature moving
into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it increasing
chances for showers & thunderstorms across the region. Trended
PoPs closer to climo, diurnally-driven convective activity by
midday through the evening with waning activity overnight. 00Z
14th guidance is in better agreement with a surface boundary
shifting more offshore by Monday, so may need to trim back PoPs
a bit, esp. for inland locations. Seasonable temps continue with
highs generally in the mid 80s through Tuesday.

While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at this
time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing
an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday
and continuing through the weekend. See Coastal Flooding section
below for more details.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday night/...
As of 7 AM Wed...While fog was not as widespread as previously
thought this morning, some patchy fog has been found along the
far western Coastal Plain mainly across PGV and points north and
west, but this fog should dissipate within the next hour or two
resulting in VFR ceilings and vis across all of ENC by mid-
morning. A diurnal Cu field at 3.5-5 kft will set up around
mid-morning and persist into the evening hours before gradually
dissipating. Another round of iso showers/tstms will be
possible after 18Z once again, mainly along and west of Hwy 17
as yet another shortwave moves across the area but given limited
coverage of activity, no mention of precip in the TAFs just
yet. Continued light winds expected through the entire period
generally around 5 kts coming from the NE on Wed. By Wed evening
any leftover shower and tstm activity should gradually
dissipate by about midnight at the latest with clearing skies
and light winds expected once again across ENC. Yet another
potential round of patchy fog will be possible tonight mainly
after 06Z. Will preclude a mention of fog in the TAFs for now
given inherent uncertainty with fog coverage especially
considering the last two nights.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Dry weather expected Thursday and
Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light
winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to
bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus
most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Weak cool
front will move into the area by this weekend, yielding
increasing chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms
possible, mainly during peak heating which may produce sub-VFR
conditions at times on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Benign boating conditions continue across our
waters with high pressure remaining in control of the pattern.
Widespread 5-15 kt N-NE winds are forecast across all waters
and 2-4 ft seas are forecast across all coastal waters through
the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...Good boating conditions through much
early Friday morning with high pressure building into the area
bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt. Winds begin to veer to E and
SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and
Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will
generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday. By sunrise
Friday, we will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells
from Ernesto move into the waters which will build through
Saturday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells could impact
the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long period swells
could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of
opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy
(SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and east facing
inlets along the NC coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM Wed...Minimal changes to the river flood threat as
we are still waiting for a few rivers to crest later this week
and weekend. Given this, river flooding will continue across
many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and
Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will
persist through the weekend and into next week as the abundant
rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the
forecast area, makes its way towards the sounds and coast. It
should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still
yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late week or
this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM Wed...Little change in the forecast over the next
few days as TC Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a
hurricane later today then pass well to the east late week into
this weekend. Strong long period swells from distant Ernesto
will combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely
lead to several coastal hazards. Dangerous rip currents and
rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is also potential
for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures
are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday
morning into early next week. More specifics will be provided
over the next few days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/RCF
MARINE...DAG/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX