Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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254 FXUS62 KMHX 141721 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 121 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the north will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through late week before a front begins to approach from the west this weekend bringing increasing precipitation chances across the area. Swells from distant Tropical Storm Ernesto will begin impacting the coast starting Friday and persisting into the weekend, bringing a threat for elevated rip current risk and coastal impacts. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1010 AM Wed...Forecast is in excellent shape this morning as high pressure continues to weakly ridge into the area from the north. Upper level cyclonic flow persists and eyes are on a weak embedded shortwave diving out of the Ohio Valley, which will provide just enough lift for a few very spotty showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder or two as CAPEs climb to between 500-1000 J/kg. 12Z MHX sounding measured a drier-than-average atmosphere with a PWAT of 1.25" (normal for this time of year is closer to 1.6"), so not expecting any storms to be prolific rainmakers - a welcome respite after the past week`s deluge. Previous PoPs look strong and offered no changes. Forecast highs today reach into the mid to upper 80s, except upper 70s to low 80s across NOBX as is typical in northeasterly post-frontal flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Aforementioned shortwave will be pushing off the coast tonight and any leftover shower and thunderstorm activity should quickly end from north to south prior to midnight. This will once again allow for skies to clear across the area. This combined with calm winds and a moist boundary layer will bring yet another threat for patchy fog development, mainly along and west of Hwy 17 with timing for fog development likely after midnight. The only other thing to note with tonight`s forecast is given the expectation for mo clear skies and calm winds, a good radiational cooling setup is forecast tonight. With this in mind, have lowered temps slightly tonight below most guidance to account for this with lows in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 60s along the OBX and immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. The upper trough shifts off the East Coast Thursday and Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. NHC guidance continues to take Tropical Cyclone Ernesto well off the NC coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night through the weekend. At the same time, another trough will dig south from the Great Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a weak frontal feature moving into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms across the region. Trended PoPs closer to climo, diurnally-driven convective activity by midday through the evening with waning activity overnight. 00Z 14th guidance is in better agreement with a surface boundary shifting more offshore by Monday, so may need to trim back PoPs a bit, esp. for inland locations. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally in the mid 80s through Tuesday. While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. See Coastal Flooding section below for more details. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 18Z Thu/... As of 120 PM Wed...VFR conditions holding strong this afternoon as weak high pressure continues to ridge in from the north, ushering in north to northeasterly winds of under 10 kt and a healthy amount of cu. Potential exists for a shower or two as a weak mid-level disturbance dives across the area, but coverage is expected to be so isolated an explicit TAF mention isn`t warranted. Attention tonight returns to patchy overnight fog. Signal is a bit stronger than last evening with more confidence in a clear sky forecast, and there is some potential for any fog that forms to be dense (vis <1 mile). Confidence is high enough in fog formation to mention for at least the coastal plain terminals, but not enough to introduce explicit IFR or worse forecasts. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Weak cool front will move into the area by this weekend, yielding increasing chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms possible, mainly during peak heating which may produce sub-VFR conditions at times on Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/... As of 330 AM Wed...Benign boating conditions continue across our waters with high pressure remaining in control of the pattern. Widespread 5-15 kt N-NE winds are forecast across all waters and 2-4 ft seas are forecast across all coastal waters through the period. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 335 AM Wednesday...Good boating conditions through much early Friday morning with high pressure building into the area bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt. Winds begin to veer to E and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday. By sunrise Friday, we will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells from Ernesto move into the waters which will build through Saturday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells could impact the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and east facing inlets along the NC coast. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 AM Wed...Minimal changes to the river flood threat as we are still waiting for a few rivers to crest later this week and weekend. Given this, river flooding will continue across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the sounds and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM Wed...Little change in the forecast over the next few days as TC Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today then pass well to the east late week into this weekend. Strong long period swells from distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely lead to several coastal hazards. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday morning into early next week. More specifics will be provided over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/MS MARINE...DAG/RCF HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX