Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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292 FXUS62 KMHX 150229 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1029 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the north will remain over the eastern seaboard through late week before a front begins to approach from the west this weekend bringing increasing precipitation chances across the area. Swells from distant Tropical Storm Ernesto will begin impacting the coast starting Friday and persisting into the weekend, bringing a threat for elevated rip current risk and coastal impacts. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 915 PM Wednesday... - Monitoring fog potential overnight Clouds have been a bit slower to move out than previously forecast, and this has slowed the diurnal drop in temps. However, where skies have cleared, good radiational cooling conditions have allowed temps to drop quickly, so the forecast lows tonight still look solid. The fog potential still remains uncertain. Probabilistic guidance continues to show a low chance (10%) of fog development, but with good radiational cooling conditions developing, T/Td spreads are quickly lowering. At face value, I suspect this will lead to areas of shallow fog, at minimum. For now, we`ll continue to keep a mention of patchy fog in the forecast, and continue to monitor trends in case something more impactful becomes more evident. PREVIOUS FORECAST...Shortwave pushes off the coast overnight with any lingering precipitation quickly falling off after sunset. Skies will quickly clear, and with calm winds tonight looks like a good radiational cooling event. Followed the prior shift`s lead and kept lows at the bottom of the guidance envelope (low to mid 60s, around 70 along the coast). Guidance soundings depict a very shallow but saturated boundary layer, and fog remains a risk early Thurs morn. The overall probabilities of lower visibilities are low (under 20%), but the conditional risk of dense fog is elevated. Maintained fog mention from the previous forecast, but this will be need to be closely monitored in future updates. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 320 PM Wednesday...Yet another nice day as high pressure continues to linger overhead. Even drier air will seep into the area as forecast PWATs plunge below an inch and dew points fall into the upper 50s as mixing is maximized in the afternoon. A minority of guidance is showing a few spotty showers developing across NOBX as a weak shortwave pivots around the departing upper trough, but given such dry forecast conditions did not put in any PoPs for the period. Highs perhaps a degree higher than today, but still near to slightly below average - mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...A drying trend will commence mid-week as a cold front offshore slowly sags southward and high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. The upper trough shifts off the East Coast Thursday and Friday with upper ridging building in from the west. NHC guidance continues to take Tropical Cyclone Ernesto well off the NC coast, close to Bermuda, Friday night through the weekend. At the same time, another trough will dig south from the Great Lakes into the eastern CONUS, with a weak frontal feature moving into Eastern NC by late weekend, bringing with it increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms across the region. Trended PoPs closer to climo, diurnally-driven convective activity by midday through the evening with waning activity overnight. 00Z 14th guidance is in better agreement with a surface boundary shifting more offshore by Monday, so may need to trim back PoPs a bit, esp. for inland locations. Seasonable temps continue with highs generally in the mid 80s through Tuesday. While we are not expecting direct impacts from Ernesto at this time, large swells are expected to impact the beaches bringing an increased rip current risk and large surf beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. See Coastal Flooding section below for more details. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 00z Friday/... As of 630 PM Wednesday... - Monitoring BR/FG/MIFG potential overnight A couple of weak surface boundaries will continue to support a few pop-up SHRA through around 00z/8pm, then there should be a quick decrease with the loss of daytime heating. The main challenge overnight will be BR/FG/MIFG potential. Reaching the crossover temps (low to mid 60s) is plausible, and I expect this, alone, will at least support a risk of MIFG. However, the risk of a deep/more substantial FG risk appears more questionable due to a drier low- level airmass working south into the area. Probabilistic guidance hints at the potential for LIFR VIS in BR/FG, but only gives about a 10% chance. The previous TAFs had a sub-VFR BR mention in. Given all of the above, I don`t see any reason to deviate from this for now (ie. towards something more impactful). Something to monitor in observations and forecasts through the night, though... LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday, then unsettled weather returns for the weekend. Light winds and good radiational cooling conditions will continue to bring the chance for late night/early morning fog and stratus most mornings, especially given the saturated ground. Weak cool front will move into the area by this weekend, yielding increasing chances for unsettled weather with showers/storms possible, mainly during peak heating which may produce sub-VFR conditions at times on Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 325 PM Wed...Benign boating conditions continue across our waters with high pressure remaining still firmly in control. Regional observations show north to northeasterly winds of 5-10 kt with seas around 2-3 feet, and little change in these conditions are expected until Thursday night when swell from distant TC Ernesto begins to creep into area waters. Widespread 5-15 kt N-NE winds are forecast across all waters and 2-3 ft seas are forecast across all coastal waters through the period. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 335 AM Wednesday...Good boating conditions through much early Friday morning with high pressure building into the area bringing NE winds around 5-15 kt. Winds begin to veer to E and SE late Friday into Saturday as the high moves offshore, and Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to Bermuda. Seas will generally be around 2 to 3 ft through early Friday. By sunrise Friday, we will begin to see long period (14-15 second) swells from Ernesto move into the waters which will build through Saturday. Wave guidance suggests long period swells could impact the waters through Sunday into early Monday. Long period swells could make inlet conditions particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides and perpendicular swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially for southeast and east facing inlets along the NC coast. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 325 PM Wed...A few more rivers have fallen below flood stage, but overall synopsis has not changed. River flooding will continue across many river basins in Eastern NC, including the Trent, Neuse, and Tar Rivers as well as several tributaries. River flooding will persist through the weekend and into next week as the abundant rainfall that occurred across the NC Piedmont, upstream of the forecast area, makes its way towards the sounds and coast. It should be noted that some of the worst river flooding is still yet to come, with some rivers not cresting until late week or this weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 PM Wed...Little change in the forecast over the next few days as TC Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today then pass well to the east late week into this weekend. Strong long period swells from distant Ernesto will combine with high astronomical tides, which will likely lead to several coastal hazards. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are expected for the beaches. There is also potential for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be Friday morning into early next week. More specifics will be provided over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/RM MARINE...DAG/MS HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX