380
FXUS62 KMHX 071322
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
922 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall to the west today which will result in
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through early
this evening. The front will eventually dissipate across the
Piedmont tonight into Monday. More diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm activity is then forecast from early in the week
through about midweek before the next front approaches and
interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing
increased precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 920 AM Sunday...Key messages for today:
1) Not as hot as Friday and Saturday but it still will be very
warm and humid.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon through early this evening. The main threat will be
locally heavy rains though an isolated damaging wind gust can`t
be ruled out.

The atmosphere will be primed today for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms as a decaying frontal boundary sags
south into NC. Ahead of this front, a tropical like airmass
prevails with PW values >2". MUCAPES are forecast to be around
2500 J/kg which should support some vigorous updrafts. The only
missing ingredient will be shear which is non existent. This
means that the initial convection will be very pulsy with storms
developing and decaying rather quickly. However, cell mergers
will lead to more sustained and persistent multi-cell clusters
which will increase the flood threat. Cold pools may also be
strong enough for an isolated microburst or two as water loaded
downdrafts occur in the strongest and most persistent
convection.

The storms will initiate on local sea breeze/sound breeze/river
breeze and differential heating boundaries around 17Z. The
greatest coverage of storms should be along the inland moving
sea breeze and areas north of the Pamlico River. Thus have
expanded the area of likely PoPs a little further east across
the northern Outer Banks and south along and east of Highway 17
where the sea breeze is expected to be located during peak
heating. The steering flow is very weak thus storms are expected
to be slow and erratic moving. Stronger storms will occur in
cell mergers and interacting outflows where very rains are
likely to occur leading to a localized flash flood threat. The
CAMs are indicating the potential for rainfall amounts of 3-5"
in the most persistent downpours.

Temps today are forecast to be slightly cooler than yesterday
reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s with the highest Heat
Index values topping out in the low 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in coverage and intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and
PoPS drastically decrease as a result. Coastal regions and areas
offshore could see showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder
tonight from the coastal trough just offshore. Lows will be in
the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through
mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next
weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week.
Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon
through mid week.

A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak
upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be
near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more
widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front
will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling
near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely
interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall
continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely
for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of
shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However,
periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially
later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards
2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it
could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be
near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Mon/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...Low ceilings didn`t materialize this
morning despite ample moisture. leaving us with generally VFR
conditions outside of OAJ which is bouncing between MVFR/IFR
vis this morning. Conditions should improve gradually this
morning with the help of daytime heating. Rinse and repeat
forecast today with another round of showers and thunderstorms
developing in an otherwise VFR regime. Winds remain light
through the day at around 5 kt, although some spotty gusts to 15
kt are possible immediately behind the seabreeze. Tonight
brings another chance for fog development along and west of hwy
17, and low ceilings as we have ample low level moisture.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sunday... Winds are currently SW`rly persisting at
10-15 kts, and will continue to do so through this afternoon.
Seas are currently 2 to 4 ft, becoming 2 to 3 feet as we move
further into this morning. The one caveat to this otherwise
pleasant boating conditions will be the constant threat for
isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
with locally higher winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues
with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough
inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...JME/CQD/RJ