956
FXUS62 KMHX 140012
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
812 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front located along the Coastal Plain will gradually weaken and
dissipate through early next week. Prior to the fronts dissipation,
moist southerly flow will continue to bring periods of rain through
Monday. Hot and humid conditions and heat indices in excess of 105
degrees return starting tomorrow with the next significant front
making its way into the area by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 745 PM Saturday...

- Lower risk of thunderstorms tonight

Evening surface analysis reveals a weak front/surface trough
just west of HWY 17, with low pressure centered over the
Chesapeake Bay region. Earlier thunderstorm activity has since
waned with the lack of stronger forcing and the diurnal increase
in inhibition. Until the trough moves offshore, the risk of
thunderstorms won`t completely be zero. However, based on the
environment and recent radar and satellite trends, I decided to
lower the chance of showers and storms for the rest of the
evening. Additionally, temperatures haven`t fallen as quickly as
originally forecast across the coastal plain, and I increase
temps/lows tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Overall not much change in the forecast
through tonight. Showers and storms quickly dissipate across
the Coastal Plain after sunset, and have kept a mainly dry fcst
overnight for inland locations. Can`t rule out scattered showers
and storms along the coast and OBX as guidance has hinted at
activity sticking around these areas. The biggest challenge for
tonight will be the cloud cover forecast as recent guidance
suggests we will clear out across areas west of Hwy 17 with
partly to mostly cloudy skies possible east of Hwy 17. This will
lead to at least a threat for some patchy fog across our
western zones and have since added some patchy fog into the
forecast. Will have to watch trends this evening however as this
is a low probability event. Regardless, with HREF probs of
20-40% across portions of Martin, Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir
County for visibilities of less than 5 miles felt best chance
for fog would be here. Warm and very muggy once again tonight
with lows in the mid/upr 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Front remains stalled along the Coastal
Plain on Sunday which will lead to isolated to widely scattered
shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon once again.
However with the front weakening, coverage should be much less
than in previous days and cloud cover should be reduced. As a
result the area is forecast to be quite a bit warmer on Sunday
with high temps forecast to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s
across ENC. With dewpoints not changing much and remaining in
the mid to upper 70s, the feels like temperatures will likely
increase to 102-108F resulting in the potential for widespread
heat related impacts. Given the current forecast would not be
surprised if heat advisories would be needed in coming updates
for at least portions of the Coastal Plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...

- Monday through Wednesday heat indices of 105-110 degrees are
  possible each day. Tuesday expected to be the hottest day.
  Some relief for the end of the week.

 -Wet again for the back half of the week as rain chances begin
  to ramp up on Wednesday and remain high through Friday.

Extreme heat will become the biggest threat in the forecast.
Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland with upper
80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index values will push or
exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations except the extreme
coastal areas. At this point, Tuesday looks like the hottest
day with heat index values approaching 110 degrees which is
excessive heat warning criteria.

More certainty for the back end of the week than last night at
this time as solutions are starting to settle on a front moving
into eastern NC and stalling for the back end of the week and
into next weekend. PW values return to greater than 2 inches on
Wednesday and remain there through the forecast period. The
greatest instability will be on Wednesday when the combination
of still higher temperatures and increased moisture yields
surface based CAPE Values between 1000-2000 J/Kg. Shear however
will be lacking so any thunder will be instability driven. After
Wednesday temperatures cool enough to reduce CAPE values some
and shear remains weak. Therefore once again heavy rain will be
the greatest threat during this period. Temps during this time
will moderate into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Monday/...
As of 745 PM Saturday...

 - BR and MVFR VIS possible overnight (40-60% chance)

 - SCT TSRA risk returns on Sunday

Earlier TSRA have weakened, and low clouds continue to scatter
out, leaving VFR conditions across the board at this time.
Through the rest of the night, I expect mostly dry conditions.
However, a surface front will be moving through overnight, and
until that moves offshore, I can`t completely rule out a TSRA.
The chance of TSRA redeveloping overnight is LOW (10-20%
chance). As skies clear, a period of sub-VFR VIS may develop due
to BR, and I`ve added this to the TAF sites where confidence is
highest. Dense, impactful FG, is not expected. On Sunday, SCT
TSRA are once again expected to bubble up in the afternoon,
mainly tied to the afternoon seabreeze. I left TSRA out of the
TAFs for now due to timing and confidence concerns.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...

A drier period for much of the aviation long term with
predominately VFR conditions. Exceptions to this could be with
overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10
kts through much of the period. Rain chances will increase on
Wednesday and along with it the chance for sub-VFR periods.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 745 PM Saturday...

 - Improving boating conditions

Based on recent buoy obs, 4-5ft seas are holding on a bit
longer than anticipated, and I`ve adjusted the seas forecast for
the coastal waters for the rest of the night to account for
this. The chance of thunderstorms still exists overnight, but
the risk has been lowered.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Have ended the ongoing SCA`s this
afternoon as ambient winds have eased and seas have fallen below
6 feet across our coastal waters this afternoon. Winds will
change little through tonight and become more SW-W`rly Sunday
while easing slightly, closer to 5-10 kts. Seas will change
little through the period resulting in rather benign boating
conditions. The one caveat to this is continued isolated to
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity which is
forecast through Sunday evening. Locally enhanced winds and seas
would be possible within any thunderstorm that moves over the
waters.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...

Fairly quiet start to the long term for Marine conditions with
southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. For the
coastal waters seas should remain between 3-4 feet through much
of the long term before rising to 5 feet near the end of the
week. Rain chances will increase from Wednesday through the end
of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/RM
MARINE...RTE/RM/RCF