166
FXUS62 KMHX 102324
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
724 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak fronts and various upper level waves will lead
to unsettled weather for several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Increased risk of showers and thunderstorms through tonight,
   a few of which could be strong to severe with damaging winds
   and minor flooding

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a boundary moving across
the coastal plain, meanwhile the sea breeze is slowly
progressing inland. Between these boundaries, scattered
convection has initiated. Where these boundaries converge
(possibly along hwy 17 from Onslow to Beaufort county) there
could be a swath of enhanced rainfall totals. A moist profile
with limited dry air at midlevels keeps our downburst potential
low, reducing the chances of severe wind gusts. Low level lapse
rates are high, so sub-severe gusts of 30-50mph are possible in
the strongest of storms. Of greater concern is the rainfall
totals in the urban areas around Jacksonville, New Bern,
Greenville, and Washington NC where continuous storms over the
next 3-6 hours would be capable of dropping 1-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. This results in a risk of minor flash
flooding concerns, WPC has us in a marginal (1/5) ERO for today.

Additional waves of forcing are capable of producing
thunderstorms in ENC through around 2am, at which point any
additional convection should be focused along coastal areas and
offshore waters. This convection should also remain sub-severe
given the nighttime stabilization that is expected to set up.
Behind the convection tonight, low ceilings and patchy fog may
develop as low levels remain moist and winds decrease after
sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...
A weak sfc low forms offshore tomorrow, and meanders to the
north and west through the day. Hi-res guidance indicates a
boundary of some sort attached to this low or a weak trough sweeping
through the region from north to south. If this trough moves
through in the afternoon/evening hours, any collision with the
daily sea breeze could be an area to watch for additional storm
development. If the wave moves through after sunset (which some
models indicate) it would result in 2 possible waves of precip,
once with the sea breeze and the second with the north to south
moving boundary. Storms should be sub-severe, but isolated
instances of minor flash flooding are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thurs...We will continue to see a rather active
pattern across ENC through this weekend with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms as a thermal trough remains inland and
high pressure ridging remains anchored offshore. Upper level
pattern will remain active to the north, with multiple troughs
tracking from west to east across the Northern Plains into the
Northeast, while upper level ridging remaining in place off the
coast of the Southeast and over the western CONUS. Several weak
midlevel shortwave troughs will push across the region through
this weekend and into early next week continuing to bring
moisture up from the Gulf from midlevels downward across the
Southeast. As a result, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will
persist across the CWA with lowest precipitation chances
overnight unless a stronger storm cluster persists and drifts
into the CWA from further inland before dissipating.  While
there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next
several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in
place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts
within the strongest storms with the Coastal Plain having the
highest chance at seeing stronger storms.

Late this weekend and into early next week, a backdoor front slowly
sags down the Mid-Atlantic coast but there are tons of model
differences in how far and how quickly it will march Sward. This
remains contingent on how much momentum gets transferred from the
trough aloft exiting NECONUS and where midlevel shortwaves and
potential MCSs line up.

For now, keeping the backdoor front along the northern zones of the
area early next week which will keep available moisture for diurnal
summer time shower and tstorms in place into midweek next week.

Max Temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with min
temps mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sat/...
As of 725 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Lingering SHRA and TS risk through 03-04z
 - Sub-VFR conditions possible inland tomorrow morning
 - TSRA risk returns tomorrow afternoon

Predominantly VFR across ENC terminals this evening albeit with
scattered coverage of showers and storms, currently closest to
OAJ and PGV. Expecting spotty convective activity to continue
through around 03z with development along old outflow boundaries
and a loosely organize band of storms pushing across RDU this
hour. Storms have been mostly sub-severe and main hazard should
be torrential rain with vis restrictions.

Terminals dry out by 04-05z. Previously noted signal for sub-VFR
cigs has weakened slightly in the latest runs, but not enough to
remove MVFR mentions for the coastal plain starting at 08z with
some IFR possible especially around dawn. This will be slow to
burn off given poor mixing in the morning and think VFR will not
return until around 14z. Beyond this, renewed round of showers
and thunderstorms forecast with the diurnal maximum tomorrow
afternoon, greatest coverage for EWN and OAJ.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Thurs...Several mid level shortwaves will track
across ENC into early next week. This will continue to bring a
daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as sub-VFR
conditions. Best chance to see reduced vis and ceilings from
this activity is in the afternoon and early evening each day.
If it does rain then there will also be a fog and low stratus
threat each night as well for areas that see meaningful
rainfall. Slow moving front sags down the NE coast late
weekend/early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 230 PM Thurs...A thermal trough inland is interacting
with a ridge of high pressure centered offshore allowing SW`rly
winds to increase slightly to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near
20 kts. Given the (relatively) cooler temps today, do not
expect us to reach frequent gusts of 25 kts for any waters.
Gusty winds will then ease once again overnight to 10-15 kts.
Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period. There
will be a chance to see some shower and thunderstorm activity
across our waters today through tonight, bringing at least a
threat for locally enhanced winds and seas within any
thunderstorm that impacts the waters.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Thurs...With little change in the surface pattern
through this weekend as high pressure ridging remains centered
offshore and a thermal trough remains centered off to the west,
expect 10-20 kt SW`rly winds and with gusts up to 20 to
occasionally 25 kts across our waters through this weekend while
seas persist around 2-4 ft. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue as well.

Cold front slowly sags down the coast late this weekend into early
next week, but for now, keep it no further S than our northern zones
until early next week.  Either way our waters remain below SCA
criteria early next week as well, as incoming front will be
rather weak.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ