570
FXUS62 KMHX 200556
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
156 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the
Carolinas for the next several days. Unsettled weather will
continue into next week with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. Storm coverage is uncertain, but
increasing soil moisture levels from heavy rains present a
greater likelihood of runoff and localized flooding. 2-3"/hour
rainfall rates are possible with locally higher amounts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Fri...Made some minor tweaks to the PoP forecast to
catch recent trends but other than that not much change in the
forecast overnight. Ongoing rain and isolated thunderstorm
activity continues to the south of a stalled frontal boundary.
This activity has produced heavy rain at times with the
occasional flood advisory issued this evening, though given
recent trends the heavy rain threat looks to of subsided at
least for now. Otherwise continued widespread cloud cover and at
least some widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is
forecast for the remainder of tonight.

Prev Disc...Overnight pattern is a familiar one, with highest
PoPs along the coast and a chance of scattered showers over the
coastal plain. Still sultry, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Low stratus and some fog are once again possible early Sat
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM Fri...Front will continue to meander over the
Carolinas tomorrow, although guidance consensus does point to a
retreat northward through the day. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms again remain a threat in the afternoon and
evening, but like today the impacts of potential remnant cloud
cover may result in more limited coverage than advertised by
some CAMs. If robust convection can get going, there is a low
end risk of more organized convection capable of producing wet
downbursts. Lack of shear remains a limiting factor, with few
models showing any effective shear higher than 20-25 kt. SPC has
our area in a Level 1 (Marginal) risk of severe storms to
account for this risk. Warmer temperatures return as the front
retreats northward, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Fri...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods
of showers and thunderstorms will persist into much of the
upcoming week as moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak
front persists over/near eastern NC through the period.

Saturday through Thursday...No end in sight for the unsettled,
wet period that started mid week. A very moist airmass combined
with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an
above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
have torrential downpours with PW values remaining 2" or
higher. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by
mid next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash
Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. High temps will
run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be
slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 06z Sunday/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

 - TSRA to continue to impact the area overnight

 - TSRA risk redevelops Saturday into Saturday night

 - Periods of sub-VFR conditions expected in TSRA

An area of SHRA and TSRA will continue to lift NE through
portions of ENC over the next several hours, clearing the coast
by 12z/8am Saturday. There may be a period of SCT/BKN low clouds
in the wake of the TSRA activity, but based on upstream obs and
satellite imagery, I decided to pull back some on the MVFR CIG
potential. During the day Saturday, a weak frontal boundary is
forecast to lift north into northern NC or southern VA. This
suggests the best lift may be removed from the area for a brief
time on Saturday. Should this be the case, the risk of TSRA
would tend to be lower for several hours during the daylight
hours. If the front gets hung up further south, the risk of TSRA
would be higher. Eventually, a modest upper level wave glancing
the area should support a renewed round of SHRA and TSRA from
central into northern NC during the afternoon and evening hours.
This puts the greatest risk of TSRA focused from KISO to KPGV.
Elsewhere, sea/bay/river breezes may support isolated to
scattered SHRA and TSRA, but confidence is too low for a mention
in the TAFs for now. Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions are
likely (60-80% chance).

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Fri...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers
and storms will continue into early next week with occasional
sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus
clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas
that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15
kts through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 345 PM Fri...No SCA conditions expected in the short term,
although rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely once
again especially overnight into Sat morning. Regional
observations show a cold front draped from roughly Oregon Inlet
westward to just north of the Pamlico River, with northeasterly
winds to the north and southerly winds to the south. Winds are
generally around 10 kt area wide, with seas of 2-3 feet. Little
change in these conditions are expected, although the front will
slowly retreat back northward through the night and into
Saturday. Southwesterly winds will increase through Saturday,
reaching a peak of 15-20 kt Sat evening with a stronger thermal
gradient in place. This late surge will build seas back to
around 4 feet, especially for Raleigh and Onslow Bays.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Fri...The flow is expected to become S/SW all
waters through the period. On Sat the flow will become enhanced
as lower pressures inland lead to slightly stronger gradient.
Winds will increase to 15-20 kt and could briefly reach SCA
levels in the late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the
flow will be mainly 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Shower and storm
chances are forecast to be high through early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 PM Fri...The forecast is for unsettled, wet
conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during
the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable
uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil
moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the
previous couple of days indicating that any additional heavy
rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In
addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high
(>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat
over the next several days. There is the potential for storms to
produce 2-3" in an hour which would be enough generate
urban/poor drainage flooding.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...RM/JME
MARINE...JME/MS
HYDROLOGY...MHX