330
FXUS62 KMHX 141354
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
954 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather and dangerous heat indices in
excess of 105 degrees return starting today and lasting into mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM Sunday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 7:30 AM Sunday...The front remains
stalled across the coastal plain and will weaken through the
day. This boundary, along with an offshore shortwave, should
provide enough forcing to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Cloud and precip cover will be
less than yesterday, which will allow temperatures to soar well
into the 90s across the coastal plain. These temps will be
accompanied by high dew points in the upper 70s. This
combination will generate heat indices of 105-107 across much of
the area, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for all of ENC
except for Dare and coastal Hyde counties from 11 AM to 7 PM.

This afternoon`s environment will have ample instability (MLCAPE
2000-3000 J/kg), weak shear (~20 kt), and high moisture (PWATS ~
2"). With this amount of instability, some storms could become
strong with frequent lightning and heavy rain. The severe threat is
non-zero but remains low given the lack of shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 3:30 AM Sunday...With the loss of daytime heating, PoPs
will decrease and remain only along the immediate coast
overnight. Another round of fog will be possible across the
coastal plain, especially for areas that receive rainfall this
afternoon, given a lack of cloud cover and light winds. Temps
will only drop to the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sun...First part of the long term will be highlighted
by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat indices
between 105-115 degrees through mid week. Then, a cold front
moves into the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and
storms Wednesday into the end of the week.

Monday through Tuesday...Extreme heat will become the biggest
threat for the beginning of the work week. Highs will be in the
mid to some upper 90s interior, with around 90 coast. These
temps combined with dewpoints between 75-80 will lead to
dangerously high heat indices, with advisory criteria likely
being met, though several hours of 110-115 degrees (excessive
heat warning criteria) are possible as well.

Wednesday through Saturday...More certainty for the back end of
the week than last night at this time as 14/00Z model suite
settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid
through late week. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher on
Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the
weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability
will be high Wed through Fri (2000-4000 J/Kg), but shear very
weak, so biggest threat from storms that develop will be wet
microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The
good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end
to the dangerously high heat indices. Pops peak on Thu in the
60% range, and capped at 50% for Fri into the weekend until
mesoscale details become more clear, though it does appear pops
will be above climo into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Monday/...
As of 2 AM Sunday...

 - SCT TSRA risk this afternoon and evening
 - BR and MVFR VIS possible across the area overnight

Low stratus continues to plague the area this morning but
conditions are expected to improve within the next hour or two.
VFR flight cats should then persist until this afternoon when
scattered convection develops across ENC. Terminals within the
vicinity of showers and thunderstorms can expect brief drops in
VIS and CIGs. Although strong wind shear is lacking to support
severe thunderstorms, there is enough instability in the
atmosphere to support some strong storms capable of producing
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. The
overnight hours will present another chance for fog and low
stratus.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...Mostly VFR through the period. Diurnal showers
and storms for Mon and Tue, become more numerous Wed through
the end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight
fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts through
much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 2:30 AM Sunday...Quiet marine conditions persist through
the short term. Winds will generally be 10-15 kt out of the SW
with seas around 3-4 ft with some 5 footers in the central
waters.

LONG TERM /Mon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...Fairly quiet start to the long term for Marine
conditions with southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20
kts. Thermal gradient could bring some 25+ kt winds for the
favored areas (Oregon Inlet/Croatan-Roanoke-Pamlico Sounds and
Alligator River) by Tuesday afternoon and evening. For the
coastal waters seas should remain between 3-4 feet through much
of the long term before rising to 5 feet by midweek. Rain and
storm chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>046-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC