832
FXUS62 KMHX 110703
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
General summertime troughing is expected to remain in place
through early next.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Thunderstorm risk expected to be focused along the coast
   through this evening

An upper level wave/remnant MCV will shift offshore early this
morning, leaving behind a light westerly low-level flow across
the eastern Carolinas. While not strong, this flow should lead
to drier air aloft, and lower PWATs for much of ENC today. The
one exception is along the coast, where PWATs will be the
highest. Heating of a residually moist boundary layer should
allow MLCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg to develop today. While notable,
it`s not expected to be as high as the past couple of days. Deep
layer shear will continue to be weak, which when combined with
the lower instability, should keep the risk of severe
thunderstorms low. Ensemble and machine learning guidance
suggest a lowered severe risk as well.

In light of the above, the expectation for today is for
convection to be more scattered in nature compared to yesterday,
and mainly confined to the seabreeze. With the westerly low-
level flow in place, the seabreeze should get pinned closer to
the coast, and is why the risk of thunderstorms should mostly be
focused in that area. The one caveat today is the potential for
a weak backdoor cold front to try to dip south along the NRN
OBX/Albemarle Sound area. Should this occur, it would lead to a
locally enhanced area of convergence in that area, with a
locally higher risk of thunderstorms. This area was hit hard
with heavy rainfall yesterday, and we`ll have to closely monitor
this area for a flooding risk. Ensemble guidance suggests
rainfall amounts as high as 2-4" will be possible in that area
(if the enhanced convergence is realized). A small Flood Watch
may be needed if confidence were to increase regarding the heavy
rain potential there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Continued low-mid level drying plus upper level ridging
building in should lead to a much lower risk of thunderstorms
tonight compared to the past couple of nights. Light winds and
wet soils may allow a fog risk to develop, but at this time,
widespread impactful fog is not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...We remain in a summer like pattern through the
long term period with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Upper level trough in the High Plains on Sat will
gradually push E`wards into the Northeast by early next week.
While upper level ridging off the coast of the Southeast
retrogrades westwards into the Deep South with the approach of
an upper level low. As we get into mid to late next week,
another upper trough pushes across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast while upper ridging becomes entrenched across the Deep
South, and the previously mentioned upper low becomes
stationary near the Bahamas. At the mid levels, we will have
multiple weak mid level shortwaves track across the Carolinas on
Sat and Sun with a stronger mid level shortwave then pushing
into the area on Mon into Tue eventually stalling across the
Eastern Seaboard through about midweek.

We will see a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms on Sat
and Sun. PWATs generally remain around 1.5-2.0 inches through
the weekend, and this will be relatively low compared to
previous days as some dry air associated with an approaching
backdoor cold front infiltrates the area. This dry air will also
likely limit shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend with
any sea/lake/sound breezes being the primary driver of
convective activity given the lack of significant forcing. One
caveat to this, is that we could see some enhanced convergence
along a weak backdoor front on Sat which could bring higher than
currently forecast shower and thunderstorm chances on Sat
before the boundary dissipates. Moisture then pools and PWATs
surge to greater than 2 inches across the area early next week
as the previously mentioned incoming shortwave early next week
pulls moisture northwards from the Gulf. This will result in a
better chance at more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity as better forcing overspreads ENC. With PWATS remaining
elevated and having ample deep layer moisture in place, any
thunderstorm that develops over the next few days will bring a
threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the
already wet ground from previous days activity, there will at
least be a low end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a
result, WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall this weekend. While there will be a lack of
wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms.

High temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s with the
hottest temps over the weekend. While we are not expected to
reach heat advisory criteria this weekend, with heat indices
around 100-105 F on Sat and Sun, any prolonged outdoor exposure
could become hazardous to more vulnerable groups. Lows through
the entire long term remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - IFR/MVFR potential through early Friday morning

 - TSRA coverage expected to be more scattered on Friday

SHRA and TSRA will continue to move offshore overnight, with a
lowered risk expected through Friday morning. In the wake of the
TSRA, guidance continues to advertise a strong signal for the
development of low CIGs (IFR/MVFR). The TAFs will continue to
reflect this expectation, but it should be noted that there is
some uncertainty regarding the timing of the lowest CIGs. Stay
tuned for updates.

By Friday afternoon, another round of TSRA is likely, but this
time around it`s expected to be more scattered in nature, and
mainly confined to the coast. Since the strongest signal is
along the coast, I hit the TSRA potential the hardest at KOAJ
and KEWN, and removed the mention from KISO and KPGV. A lower
TSRA risk is expected Friday evening (compared to the past
couple of evenings). Drier low-level air building in may lead to
a lowered risk of sub VFR CIGs Friday evening as well, but at
the same time, may allow more of a patchy fog risk to develop.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Several mid level shortwaves will track across
ENC through early next week. This will continue to bring a
daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as sub-VFR
conditions. Reduced vis and ceilings from this activity is
possible. Though will note, best chances to see shower and
thunderstorm activity will be on Mon/Tue as the strongest in a
set of mid level shortwaves pushes through the area and moisture
pools out ahead of it. If it does rain then there will also be
a fog and low stratus threat each night as well for areas that
see meaningful rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Outside of any shower and thunderstorm activity
across our coastal waters this morning, SW`rly winds remain
around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts while seas across our
coastal waters remain around 2-5 ft. Winds will change little
during the daytime as slightly cooler temps today will allow for
a weaker thermal trough inland resulting in the pressure
gradient remaining more relaxed and keeping winds at about 5-15
kts across all waters while seas persist at 2-4 ft offshore. A
weak backdoor cold front will track S`wards across just about
half of our waters overnight shifting winds to a NE to E
direction behind it. Current forecast shows this front stalling
around an E-W oriented line near Cape Hatteras with winds across
all waters easing to 5-10 kts tonight. There will be a chance
to see additional shower and thunderstorm activity across our
waters later today and tonight, bringing at least a low end
threat for locally enhanced winds and seas within any
thunderstorm that impacts the waters.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...With little change in the surface pattern
through this weekend and early next week, expect rather benign
boating conditions across our waters through the period. Winds
become SW`rly across all waters at 5-10 kts by Sun as
aforementioned back door cold front dissipates. Winds change
little into Tuesday. Seas persist around 2-4 ft with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RCF