115
FXUS62 KMHX 152012
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
412 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last
into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Dangerous heat indices of 110-115F are being
observed through much of ENC, becoming 105-110F for beaches.
Excessive heat warning is in effect for the entire CWA until
7PM. These high temps will continue for the next 1-2 hours
before we start gradually coming back down. Another warm night
is in store however, providing little relief before tomorrow`s
heat. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s inland, around 80 for
beaches. lowest heat indices tonight will be in the upper 70s
inland, near 90 for beaches.

Thunderstorm activity has started up along and ahead of the sea
breeze and in the coastal plain this afternoon right on
schedule. MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and ~2" PWAT will be
supportive of strong pulse convection with the main hazards of
concern being gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. A lack of deep layer shear keeps the chance for
storms to become severe less than 10%, and storms will struggle
to sustain themselves as they will collapse quickly. As we lose
daytime heating coverage and intensity is expected to decrease.
Overnight we could see some convection over Onslow Bay moving
NW`eard, and could clip the crystal coast and OBX south of
Oregon Inlet, particularly after 2am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

KEY POINTS:

-EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH issued for central portions of the CWA

-HEAT ADVISORY issued for OBX, Crystal Coast, Coastal Onslow,
 and the Coastal Plain

-Scattered thunderstorms, some of them strong in nature,
 possible in the afternoon and evening hours

Tuesday brings conditions similar to today, although it will be
a bit more windy and t-storm coverage along and ahead of the
sea breeze will be a bit higher. Another hot, muggy day is in
store, with forecasted heat indices approaching and possibly
exceeding 110F. Will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Tuesday
from inland Onslow Co. moving NE to Mainland Dare Co., with heat
advisories in place for the remainder of the CWA. the excessive
heat WATCH is due to the possibility of excessive heat WARNING
level conditions in the region, with at least heat advisory
criteria temps expected. The area under an advisory has less
confidence for excessive heat warning level conditions, but
still firmly in the advisory category. Some factors that could
throw a wrench in this forecast are widespread convection
earlier than expected, higher winds allowing more mixing, and
decreasing dewpoints as we get into the afternoon, and cloud
cover building from the west moderating temps.

Storms can produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning as we have another high CAPE, high PWAT, low shear
day.

High temps in the mid to upper 90s inland, near 90 for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...First part of the long term will be
highlighted by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat
indices between 105-115 degrees. Then, a cold front moves into
the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and storms mid
to late week.

Tuesday night...Lows are near the climo max, and readings will
only fall to around 80 for many areas, esp east of hwy 17.

Wednesday through Sunday...More certainty for the back end of
the week than last night at this time as 15/00Z model suite
settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid
week into the weekend. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher on
Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the
weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability
will be high Wed through Fri (2000-3000 J/Kg), but shear
weak (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms that develop will
be wet microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding.
The good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an
end to the dangerously high heat indices. Pops peak on Thu-Fri
in the 60-70% range, and capped at high chc 50% on the weekend
until mesoscale details become more clear, though should be
noted that these vals are still above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 18z Tues/...
As of 4 PM Monday...Decreased visibility and ceilings possible
in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms could pack a
punch with gusty winds (35-40 kt), heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. The severe threat is non-zero but low given a lack
of wind shear. Conditions will recover to VFR once convective
activity dies down, remaining VFR through the morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Mostly VFR through the period. Diurnal showers
and storms through Wed, become more numerous Thu through the
end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight
fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through
much of the period with gusts nearing 20 kt Tue and Wed
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
As of 4 PM Monday...Winds will be out of the SW at 15-20 kt
with a few gusts to 25 kt across the central waters and Pamlico
Sound this afternoon. Seas are 3-4 ft, slowly building to 3-5ft
Tuesday afternoon. Of greatest concern are the 100+ heat indices
and strong afternoon/evening thunderstorms that could produce
gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning both through
this evening and tomorrow afternoon/evening. Convection will be
most active across the rivers and sounds with weakening showers
and storms moving towards the coastal waters this evening.
Special Marine Warnings and Marine Weather Statements are
possible.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Thermal gradient inc to 20-25 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt Tue night into Wed, and have issued SCA for
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sound and the nrn/ctrl waters. Seas will
build to 4-6 by Wed. Rain and storm chances will increase from
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 07/15

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       98/1993  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  92/1962  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     101/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  97/1986  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        101/1993  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   101/1993  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ135-150-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
CLIMATE...MHX