629
FXUS62 KMHX 162309
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through today. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last
into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Tues...Given current trends planning on letting all
heat related products end at 8PM this evening as temps gradually
cool across ENC. Otherwise a mix of high and mid level clouds
should give way to just some high level cirrus this evening as
thunderstorms to our south and west quickly weaken after sunset.

Prev Disc...Hot and muggy day right now with dangerous heat,
particularly for areas under an excessive heat warning until 8
PM. Heat indices up to 113 have been observed, with conditions
generally remaining steady for the next 1-2 hours before temps
start coming back down. Showers and thunderstorms will form up
along the sea breeze through this evening, but coverage is
expected to be scattered at best. There is another area of
tstorm development along the trough to our west, but by the time
it reaches the western extent of the CWA after sunset, it will
weaken with a loss of daytime heating. Storms along the sea
breeze will exist in an environment with high MLCAPE (3000-4000
J/kg), high PWAT (2-2.25"), and weak shear (10-15 kt). The lack
of shear will keep storms disorganized and less- likely to
become severe, but MLCAPE of this amount will provide ample fuel
to support very electric storms and high PWATs could support
quick downpours. After sunset coverage and intensity of tstorms
wil rapidly decrease along the sea breeze.

Quiet start to the night after showers dissipate before we start
seeing convection along coastal waters, possibly encroaching
upon the beaches. Lows wil remain miserable, in the upper 70s
inland, near 80 for beaches. Winds from a pinched gradient in
addition to increased cloud cover will prevent any fog risk for
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 7 PM Tues... Made some minor tweaks to the PoP`s for
tomorrow morning lowering them slightly as coverage should be
more isolated to widely scattered in nature for any potential
shower or tstm activity but other than that the forecast remains
on track.

Prev Disc...This will be a transition day to a more
active pattern as ridge gets knocked down by approaching
shortwave. Some morning showers and embedded storms on the coast
will translate inland as we get into the afternoon. Pops are in
the 40-60% range for the afternoon, highest for the coastal
plain, and increased cloud cover will knock temps back down to
the lower 90s for highs. Heat adv criteria will be marginal,
with some places perhaps reaching 105 degrees briefly. Decided
to leave out any heat headlines for tomorrow with this update,
instead electing to monitor trends in the model output for cloud
cover, Tds, and maxTs, and reevaluate tonight. Breezy
conditions will cont with the aforementioned shortwave keeping
gradient pinched, esp for coastal counties where 20-30 mph gusts
are expected. The strong onshore flow should keep heat indices
at or below 100F Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tue...We will trade the intense heat for cooler
weather due to clouds and scattered to numerous showers/storms
in the long term.

Thursday through Friday...More certainty for the back
end of the week as 16/00Z model suite cont to converge on active
weather pattern as front moves into ENC and stalls. PW values
return to ~2.25" or higher and remain there through the end of
the week. Strong moisture convergence and good upr dynamics (ENC
in right entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers
and ocnl thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a `slight` risk
for excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a
whopping 17 g/kg or higher. For these reasons, have added heavy
rain mention to fcst both Thur and Fri, centered during the
daytime diurnal cycle when the heaviest showers and storms are
expected. Instability goes down a bit (1000-2000 J/Kg), along
with cont weak shear (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms
that develop will be some iso strong wet microburst winds and
heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the
increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously
high heat/humidity.

Saturday through Monday...Still looks to be cont active with
quasi-stationary troughing over the TN/OH Valleys to Mid
Atlantic, keeping ENC in favorable right entrance region of jet.
NBM cont to indicate categorical pops through this whole period,
though as is the case with convection, showers and storms will
be on and off, so have 40-60% pops for the better part of the
weekend into early next week until mesoscale details can be
resolved, with highest pops focused on the diurnal cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Wed/...
As of 710 PM Tues... Not much change in the forecast into
Wednesday with VFR conditions forecast through tonight as we
remain mixed enough to preclude a fog threat and ceilings remain
above 3 kft. One thing to note, some gusty S`rly winds around
10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts will remain possible over
the next hour or two before easing, with 5 kt winds and 10 kt
gusts expected overnight. As we get into Wed morning and
afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms possible
for coastal TAF sites in the morning with chances shifting to
the Coastal Plain in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves
inland. This will bring a threat for sub-VFR conditions,
however given the inherent uncertainty with shower and tstm
cov, only VCSH/VCTS will be mentioned at the TAF sites.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM
Tue...Diurnal showers and storms through Wed, become more
numerous Thu through the end of the week. Exceptions to this
could be with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly
winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period with gusts nearing
20 kt Wed afternoon. Periods of rain and low clouds will bring
MVFR or lower cond.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Winds remain out of the SW through the
period but become progressively gustier. Winds are currently
15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts, although weaker for inland rivers
and the Albemarle Sound. Seas still 3-4 ft today will increased
to 4-5 ft tonight, and 5-6 ft Wednesday. All sounds (except for
Albemarle Sound) and coastal waters will be under an SCA under
a SCA by 21Z and lasting through at least Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound early
Wednesday morning, capable of lightning and heavy downpours.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Gradient cont tight with sswrly 20-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt into Thu, and SCA`s cont for the coastal
waters as well as Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Seas will
build to 5-6 by later Wed and remain into Thu evening, when
gradient relaxes and winds drop below 25 kt. Rain and storm
chances will increase from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 PM Tue...Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
late Wednesday night into Friday, possibly Saturday, aided by a
stalled frontal boundary and anomalously high PWATs. WPC
continues to outlook the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall with qpf storm totals 2-4" with locally higher amounts
possible. This could lead to areas of minor flooding and
localized flash flooding Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044-079-
     090-091-195-196-199-203>205.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX