746
FXUS62 KMHX 170203
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1003 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through today. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last
into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Tues...No significant changes to the forecast on
this update.

Prev Disc...Quiet start to the night after showers dissipate
before we start seeing convection along coastal waters, possibly
encroaching upon the beaches. Lows wil remain miserable, in the
upper 70s inland, near 80 for beaches. Winds from a pinched
gradient in addition to increased cloud cover will prevent any
fog risk for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 10 PM Tues... Biggest change since the previous update was
to issue a heat advisory for Wednesday starting at 11 AM and
continuing until 8 PM Wed night. Guidance has hinted at heat
indices nearing and potentially exceeding 105 F at times across
just about every county in the CWA outside of Dare, OBX Hyde,
Carteret, and Coastal Onslow Counties so these counties have
been excluded for now from a heat advisory though depending on
how things trend they may be included in future updates. Either
way, given the heat over the last few days and lows overnight,
this should be the final day heat advisories are needed this
week.

Prev Disc...Made some minor tweaks to the PoP`s for tomorrow
morning lowering them slightly as coverage should be more
isolated to widely scattered in nature for any potential shower
or tstm activity but other than that the forecast remains on
track.

This will be a transition day to a more active pattern as ridge
gets knocked down by approaching shortwave. Some morning
showers and embedded storms on the coast will translate inland
as we get into the afternoon. Pops are in the 40-60% range for
the afternoon, highest for the coastal plain, and increased
cloud cover will knock temps back down to the lower 90s for
highs. Heat adv criteria will be marginal, with some places
perhaps reaching 105 degrees briefly. Decided to leave out any
heat headlines for tomorrow with this update, instead electing
to monitor trends in the model output for cloud cover, Tds, and
maxTs, and reevaluate tonight. Breezy conditions will cont with
the aforementioned shortwave keeping gradient pinched, esp for
coastal counties where 20-30 mph gusts are expected. The strong
onshore flow should keep heat indices at or below 100F
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tue...We will trade the intense heat for cooler
weather due to clouds and scattered to numerous showers/storms
in the long term.

Thursday through Friday...More certainty for the back
end of the week as 16/00Z model suite cont to converge on active
weather pattern as front moves into ENC and stalls. PW values
return to ~2.25" or higher and remain there through the end of
the week. Strong moisture convergence and good upr dynamics (ENC
in right entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers
and ocnl thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a `slight` risk
for excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a
whopping 17 g/kg or higher. For these reasons, have added heavy
rain mention to fcst both Thur and Fri, centered during the
daytime diurnal cycle when the heaviest showers and storms are
expected. Instability goes down a bit (1000-2000 J/Kg), along
with cont weak shear (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms
that develop will be some iso strong wet microburst winds and
heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the
increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously
high heat/humidity.

Saturday through Monday...Still looks to be cont active with
quasi-stationary troughing over the TN/OH Valleys to Mid
Atlantic, keeping ENC in favorable right entrance region of jet.
NBM cont to indicate categorical pops through this whole period,
though as is the case with convection, showers and storms will
be on and off, so have 40-60% pops for the better part of the
weekend into early next week until mesoscale details can be
resolved, with highest pops focused on the diurnal cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Wed/...
As of 710 PM Tues... Not much change in the forecast into
Wednesday with VFR conditions forecast through tonight as we
remain mixed enough to preclude a fog threat and ceilings remain
above 3 kft. One thing to note, some gusty S`rly winds around
10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts will remain possible over
the next hour or two before easing, with 5 kt winds and 10 kt
gusts expected overnight. As we get into Wed morning and
afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms possible
for coastal TAF sites in the morning with chances shifting to
the Coastal Plain in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves
inland. This will bring a threat for sub-VFR conditions,
however given the inherent uncertainty with shower and tstm
cov, only VCSH/VCTS will be mentioned at the TAF sites.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM
Tue...Diurnal showers and storms through Wed, become more
numerous Thu through the end of the week. Exceptions to this
could be with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly
winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period with gusts nearing
20 kt Wed afternoon. Periods of rain and low clouds will bring
MVFR or lower cond.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Winds remain out of the SW through the
period but become progressively gustier. Winds are currently
15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts, although weaker for inland rivers
and the Albemarle Sound. Seas still 3-4 ft today will increased
to 4-5 ft tonight, and 5-6 ft Wednesday. All sounds (except for
Albemarle Sound) and coastal waters will be under an SCA under
a SCA by 21Z and lasting through at least Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound early
Wednesday morning, capable of lightning and heavy downpours.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Gradient cont tight with sswrly 20-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt into Thu, and SCA`s cont for the coastal
waters as well as Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Seas will
build to 5-6 by later Wed and remain into Thu evening, when
gradient relaxes and winds drop below 25 kt. Rain and storm
chances will increase from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 PM Tue...Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
late Wednesday night into Friday, possibly Saturday, aided by a
stalled frontal boundary and anomalously high PWATs. WPC
continues to outlook the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall with qpf storm totals 2-4" with locally higher amounts
possible. This could lead to areas of minor flooding and
localized flash flooding Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ029-
     044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RCF/RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX