039
FXUS62 KMHX 181350
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
950 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy, unsettled weather pattern is expected through at least
the weekend. A front will stall over the area late week, coupled
with strong dynamics and a very moist atmosphere will likely
lead to multiple days of heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 950 AM Thursday...Adjusted forecast slightly this morning
based on latest trends. Convection moving off the northern Outer
Banks this morning, with more robust convection ongoing over the
Gulf Stream. Active wx day with potential for severe
thunderstorms and localized flash flooding. Area remains
outlooked in Slight Risk for both threats. Upper trough and sfc
cold front will approach ENC from the west, moving into the
favorable right entrance region of the jet combined with
anomalously high PWAT values (around 2.25"). This will support
the threat of numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon into the evening. Best coverage along the coast this
morning, shifting inland this afternoon. Today`s atmospheric
setup will be capable of supporting heavy rainfall, strong wind
gusts, and frequent lightning. A multicell storm mode seems
probable for most of the day before possibly morphing into a
squall line. Shear still looks more marginal, but steepening
low level lapse rates and rich moisture could support wet
microbursts capable of generating damaging wind gusts.

Flash flooding is a concern given the anomalously high PWATs
(>2"), slow storm motion and heavy rainfall rates. A Flood
Watch has been issued for Martin, Washington, Tyrrell, Dare,
Pitt, Beaufort, mainland Hyde, Greene, Lenoir, Craven, Pamlico,
and Jones counties until midnight. Storm total precipitation
amounts are widespread 2-4" with localized amounts of 5-6". The
highest rainfall totals are expected to be north of Highway 264
and along the OBX.

With increased cloud cover and greater rain chances, highs will
be a few degrees cooler in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...The radar should stay active through the
evening and into the overnight hours as the front slowly pushes
east and sustains shower and thunderstorm activity. Lows will be
the coolest they`ve been in several days (low to mid 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods
of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend
and maybe even into early next week. The showers and storms will
have torrential downpours with several inches of rainfall
possible by Sunday. Frequent downpours will produce localized
Flash Flood issues.

Friday...A weak front will dissipate across the region Fri.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms continues to look
widespread though with heavy rains the main threat. PW values
to ~2.25" or higher will persist into the weekend. Strong
moisture convergence and good upr dynamics (ENC in right
entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers and ocnl
thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a `slight` risk for
excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a whopping
17 g/kg or higher. Instability goes down a bit (1000-2000 J/Kg),
along with cont weak shear (<20 kt), so biggest threat from
storms that develop then will be some heavy rain with localized
flooding.

Saturday through Wednesday...A very moist airmass combined with
the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above
climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. There is some indication
that the rain threat may ease by mid next week as the Atlantic
subtropical ridge strengthens and builds west over NC.
Meanwhile scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected
through early next week with locally heavy rain the main
threat.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 7 AM Thur...The main concern during this TAF period is
the chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon and
evening capable of producing heavy rainfall and wind gusts >50
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
this morning, becoming more widespread this afternoon and
evening with greater potential for sub-VFR ceilings across the
TAF sites during this time. The OBX may see reduced vis and
ceilings this morning with convection moving inland from the
Gulf Stream. Breezy SW winds will diminish late this evening
with winds becoming much lighter tomorrow as well persisting at
5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts at times this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers
and storms will continue into early next week with occasional
sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus
clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas
that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15
kts through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 950 AM Thursday...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt,
gusting 20-25 kt, and seas 4-6 ft. SCA remains in effect for all
of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Boating conditions
remain unfavorable with SW winds at 15-20 kt increasing to 25 kt
with gusts near 30 kt. Winds and seas will grad ease late this
evening and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible today with the main hazards of concern being heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Winds will briefly shift to NE to E 10-15 kt
Fri over the northern and central waters and sounds as a weak
front drifts into the waters. The flow is expected to become
southerly all waters Sat 10-20 kt. Southerly winds Sunday and
Mon are forecast to be mainly 10-15 kt. Seas are forecast to be
2-4 ft through the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast
to be high through early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 950 AM Thu...Flood Watch has been issued for portions of
the area through late tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected this afternoon into the weekend, aided by a stalled
frontal boundary and anomalously high PWATs. WPC continues to
outlook the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall today
and Fri with qpf storm totals 3-5" forecast through Sat with
locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to areas of
minor flooding and localized flash flooding through at least
Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     091-092-094-193-194-203-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JME/OJC
MARINE...JME/CQD/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX