989
FXUS62 KMHX 181858
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
258 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the area tonight, stalling Friday.
The weak boundary, coupled with strong dynamics and a very
moist atmosphere will likely lead to scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms with moderate to locally heavy rain
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thu...Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect
for most of Eastern NC through 9 PM this evening. Active wx day
with potential for severe thunderstorms and localized flash
flooding. ENC remains outlooked in Slight Risk for both svr and
flash flood threats. Upper trough and sfc cold front will
continue to approach from the west this afternoon, with ENC
moving into the favorable right entrance region of the jet
combined with anomalously high PWAT values (around 2.25"). This
will support the threat of numerous showers and thunderstorms,
this afternoon into the evening. Strong to severe convection
currently ongoing upstream across south central VA and central
NC...slowly beginning to blossom closer to the Albemarle Sound.

Latest mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE values 2-2500 J/kg, with bulk
shear 20 kt or less. Despite the weak shear, steepening low
level lapse rates, moisture rich environment and stronger
cyclonic westerly flow aloft support the potential for organized
clusters possibly morphing into a QLCS over the next several
hours. Most CAMs show this line pushing through the area between
5-9 PM. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, frequent
lightning and heavy rain are possible. Expect line to move off
the coast late this evening with svr threat waning. In addition
to the svr threat, flash flooding is a concern given the
anomalously high PWATs (>2"), weak mean flow and heavy rainfall
rates. Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the area until
midnight. Could see rainfall rates 2-3" per hour. Storm total
precipitation amounts are widespread 1-3" with localized amounts
of 3-5". It still looks like the area of greatest concern will
be areas north of Hwy 264, including the northern Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thu...A weak cold front will stall across the region
Fri as broad SW flow continues aloft. Still expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the area, with best chances
maximized during the afternoon and evening. Anomalously high
PWAT values continue at 2.25" or higher, combined with good
upper dynamics and convergence near the boundary. Main concern
will be potential for locally heavy rain, which could lead to
additional flooding concerns, depending on rainfall during the
next 12-18 hours. Threat could be more focused for areas along
and east of Hwy 17. Temps near or slightly below climo with
clouds and precip.l

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods
of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend
and maybe even into early next week. The showers and storms will
have torrential downpours with several inches of rainfall
possible by Sunday. Frequent downpours will produce localized
Flash Flood issues.

Saturday through Wednesday...A very moist airmass combined with
the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above
climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. There is some indication
that the rain threat may ease by mid next week as the Atlantic
subtropical ridge strengthens and builds west over NC.
Meanwhile scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected
through early next week with locally heavy rain the main
threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Fri/...
As of 3 PM Thu...Cold front will move into the area tonight,
stalling Friday. Mostly VFR conditions across the terminals
early this afternoon, but expect conditions to deteriorate later
this afternoon into tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms
possible through late this evening, with increasing confidence
in widespread sub-VFR conditions developing late this evening
and tonight. Strong storms could bring gusty winds and heavy
rain. Low cigs likely developing overnight with potential for
IFR. Patchy fog will also be possible across the inland
terminals early Fri morning with moist boundary layer and calm
winds. Sub- VFR cigs could linger through late morning and early
afternoon before grad improving to VFR.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers
and storms will continue into early next week with occasional
sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus
clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas
that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15
kts through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Thu...Moderate to gusty SW winds will continue
through late this evening with winds and seas gradually easing.
A cold front will move into the area late tonight, stalling
across portions of the waters Friday. Latest obs show SW winds
15-25 kt, gusting 20-30 kt, and seas 4-6 ft. SCA remains in
effect for all of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Winds
and seas will grad ease late this evening and tonight. Boundary
bisecting the coastal waters and sounds will lead to variable
winds Fri...NE 5-10 kt north of the front and SW 5-15 kt south
of the boundary...with seas 2-4 ft. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight with the
main hazards of concern being heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
frequent lightning. Additional scattered thunderstorms expected
Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 235 AM Thu...The flow is expected to become southerly all
waters Sat 10-20 kt. Southerly winds Sunday and Mon are
forecast to be mainly 10-15 kt. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft
through the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be
high through early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Thu...Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of
the area through late tonight. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the weekend, aided by
a stalled frontal boundary and anomalously high PWATs. WPC
continues to outlook the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall today and Fri with qpf storm totals 3-5" forecast
through Sat with locally higher amounts possible. This could
lead to areas of minor flooding and localized flash flooding
through at least Friday. Main concern through tonight is areas
north of Hwy 264.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-091-092-094-193-194-203-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX