924
FXUS62 KMHX 182319
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
719 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the area tonight, stalling Friday.
The weak boundary, coupled with strong dynamics and a very
moist atmosphere will likely lead to scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms with moderate to locally heavy rain
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Thu...Latest mesoanalysis shows a cold front draped
from Virginia Beach SW`ward towards the Triad and into SC.
Latest radar shows a sprawling line of showers and strong
thunderstorms extending from the OBX SW`wards into Duplin
County. Out ahead of this line, ML CAPE values around 2000 J/kg
and deep layer shear of 10-20 kts are noted. As a result, most
of the activity is not particularly strong in nature but in
areas where shear is highest (mainly north of Hwy 264) have seen
a few wind gusts above 40-45 mph at times. As a result the
overall severe threat while not zero, is relatively low for the
remainder of the night and the severe watch will remain in
place for now. Flash flooding will also remain a threat for the
next few hours even with the relative quick motion of ongoing
activity as PWAT`s remain above 2 inches and we do have some
training of thunderstorms occuring especially across the SW`rn
zones. This will support the threat of numerous showers and
thunderstorms, this evening.

Most CAMs show this line pushing through the area between 5-9
PM. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, frequent lightning
and heavy rain are possible. Expect line to move off the coast
late this evening with svr threat waning. In addition to the svr
threat, flash flooding is a concern given the anomalously high
PWATs (>2"), weak mean flow and heavy rainfall rates. Flood
Watch remains in effect for portions of the area until midnight.
Could see rainfall rates 2-3" per hour. Storm total
precipitation amounts are widespread 1-3" with localized amounts
of 3-5". It still looks like the area of greatest concern will
be areas north of Hwy 264, including the northern Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thu...A weak cold front will stall across the region
Fri as broad SW flow continues aloft. Still expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the area, with best chances
maximized during the afternoon and evening. Anomalously high
PWAT values continue at 2.25" or higher, combined with good
upper dynamics and convergence near the boundary. Main concern
will be potential for locally heavy rain, which could lead to
additional flooding concerns, depending on rainfall during the
next 12-18 hours. Threat could be more focused for areas along
and east of Hwy 17. Temps near or slightly below climo with
clouds and precip.l

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods
of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend
and maybe even into early next week. The showers and storms will
have torrential downpours with several inches of rainfall
possible by Sunday. Frequent downpours will produce localized
Flash Flood issues.

Saturday through Wednesday...A very moist airmass combined with
the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above
climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. There is some indication
that the rain threat may ease by mid next week as the Atlantic
subtropical ridge strengthens and builds west over NC.
Meanwhile scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected
through early next week with locally heavy rain the main
threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Fri/...
As of 715 PM Thu... No significant changes to the forecast
through tomorrow as impactful showers and thunderstorms are
currently making their way across ENC this evening with storms
already through PGV/ISO with OAJ/EWN likely seeing rain and
storms within the next 1-2 hours.

Cold front will move into the area tonight,
stalling Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible
through late this evening, with increasing confidence in
widespread sub-VFR conditions developing late this evening and
tonight. Strong storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain.
Low cigs likely developing overnight with potential for IFR.
Patchy fog will also be possible across the inland terminals
early Fri morning with moist boundary layer and calm winds. Sub-
VFR cigs could linger through late morning and early afternoon
before grad improving to VFR by the afternoon on Fri with light
winds and VFR ceilings and vis forecast after about 18Z Fri.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers
and storms will continue into early next week with occasional
sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus
clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas
that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15
kts through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 7 PM Thu... One minor tweak to the forecast for tonight,
as the SCA across the Pamlico Sound has been extended until 10
PM to account for the latest observations across the area with
25+ kt gusts holding on slightly longer than previously
forecast.

Prev Disc...Moderate to gusty SW winds will continue through
late this evening with winds and seas gradually easing. A cold
front will move into the area late tonight, stalling across
portions of the waters Friday. Latest obs show SW winds 15-25
kt, gusting 20-30 kt, and seas 4-6 ft. SCA remains in effect for
all of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Winds and seas
will grad ease late this evening and tonight. Boundary bisecting
the coastal waters and sounds will lead to variable winds
Fri...NE 5-10 kt north of the front and SW 5-15 kt south of the
boundary...with seas 2-4 ft. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon into tonight with the main hazards of
concern being heavy rainfall, strong winds, and frequent
lightning. Additional scattered thunderstorms expected Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 235 AM Thu...The flow is expected to become southerly all
waters Sat 10-20 kt. Southerly winds Sunday and Mon are
forecast to be mainly 10-15 kt. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft
through the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be
high through early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Thu...Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of
the area through late tonight. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the weekend, aided by
a stalled frontal boundary and anomalously high PWATs. WPC
continues to outlook the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall today and Fri with qpf storm totals 3-5" forecast
through Sat with locally higher amounts possible. This could
lead to areas of minor flooding and localized flash flooding
through at least Friday. Main concern through tonight is areas
north of Hwy 264.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-091-092-094-193-194-203-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/RCF
MARINE...JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX