Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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636 FXUS62 KMHX 070209 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1009 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging centered in the Atlantic continues to extend west towards the Eastern Seaboard into next week. A cold front will approach ENC from the west tonight and on Sunday before stalling and eventually dissipating across the Piedmont Sunday evening into Monday. Increased chances of precip will remain possible through Sunday before the front dissipates. More diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is then forecast from early in the week to about midweek before the next front approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing increased precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 1010 PM Sat...As advertised, convection is quickly falling apart and trimmed PoPs back farther to the far inner coastal plain. Expect further deterioration in the near term with most of NC likely dry by midnight. Still watching for the nocturnal maximum of convection over offshore waters, but latest hi-res guidance suggests coverage may not be as widespread as forecast. With a solid rainfall footprint from Little Washington to Jacksonville, freshly saturated soils may provide fodder for low stratus and/or patchy fog early Sunday morning, although the latter will depend on how much cirri clears out. We remain warm and muggy tonight once again with lows getting down into the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sat... Almost another rinse and repeat forecast for tomorrow, though temps will be a bit lower. Weakening cold front is forecast to begin to dissipate over the Piedmont while seabreeze sets up in the afternoon once again. Much like on Sat shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along the seabreeze and out ahead of the aforementioned front. With PWAT`s remaining around 2+ inches and with 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE around the area showers and thunderstorms are forecast with any activity that develops bringing a threat for localized flash flooding and gusty winds. Otherwise temps are slightly cooler on Sun getting into the upper 80s to near 90. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sat...Typical summertime pattern expected through early next week, shifting to a wetter pattern mid to late week. Temps will remain near climo. A cold front will stall or dissipate west of the area, while weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast through early next week. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast Sunday into early next week. Did increase pops a bit Sunday afternoon, especially north of the Pamlico Rvr where high res guidance shows better convective coverage, near area of better instability. Expect convective chances to be near or slightly above climo Monday and Tuesday, with better chances for more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front will approach late next week, possibly stalling near or over the area as weak waves develop along it which may interact with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Still too much uncertainty this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the period. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat. However, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps look to be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00z Sun/... As of 750 PM Sat...Shower and thunderstorm activity remains confined to our west this evening with VFR conditions prevailing under a thin shield of convective cirri. Heaviest rainfall today fell along a OCW-EWN-OAJ line, and this zone will be the focus for the best low stratus and fog potential where soil moisture will be most favorable. Reliable guidance hints at this scenario, although it is erroneously painting the highest QPF footprint to the north and west. Offered the most aggressive forecast for EWN and OAJ explicitly showing IFR, while MVFR with sct IFR clouds carry for ISO and PGV. Am watching for any last minute rainfall from the aforementioned cluster of storms as it slowly migrates eastward, which could improve odds for IFR cigs. Rinse and repeat forecast tomorrow with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing in an otherwise VFR regime. Winds remain light through the day at around 5 kt, although some spotty gusts to 15 kt are possible immediately behind the seabreeze. LONG TERM /Sat afternoon through Thursday/... As of 240 AM Sat...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the terminals. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Sat... Winds have not gotten as high as previously expected thanks to widespread clouds and thunderstorm activity across the Coastal Plain capping temps for the most part which has allowed the thermal gradient to remain rather weak. Will keep ongoing SCA`s up for another few hours just in case gusts come up but won`t be surprised if SCA`s are expired at 7PM. Otherwise 10-20 kt S`rly winds with gusts up around 20-25 kts and 2-4 ft seas persist across our waters this afternoon. As we get into tonight winds ease slightly but remain S`rly persisting at 10-15 kts through Sun afternoon. Seas will lower slightly as well tonight down to 2 to 3 ft. The one caveat to this otherwise pleasant boating conditions will be the constant threat for isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. LONG TERM /Sunday night through THursday/... As of 240 AM Sat...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected through the period. Typical summertime pattern sets up with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt Sun through Wed with seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...CQD/RCF