944
FXUS62 KMHX 120903
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
503 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain stalled across the region through
Saturday with moist southerly flow bringing periods of heavy
rain. The front will dissipate early next week with hot temps
and the potential to heat indices in excess of 105 degrees
returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...
Key Messages:
- Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
  region with heavy rainfall rates continuing to bring an
  elevated flash flood threat across much of ENC through
  tonight.

A coastal low will approach ENC from the south and will
interact with a stalled frontal boundary across the region, a
very moist airmass (2-2.5" PWATs), and moderate instability,
leading to additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
capable of intense rainfall rates. Instability looks a bit lower
than yesterday, but increased forcing is expected along/near
the track of the low still be supportive of heavy rainfall
rates/amounts. Ensemble guidance suggests 2-4" of additional
rain for much of the area, with CAMs showing higher end amounts
up to 7-10" where thunderstorms are the most intense and where
training of storms occur.

Breezy onshore winds will continue along the coast as well, as
the coastal low approaches from the south. Southeasterly winds
of 20-35 mph will be common. Highs will generally be in the mid
80s but could be a bit lower in areas that see little breaks in
the rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM Friday...Low pressure weakens and lifts north of
the area tonight but the frontal boundary will remain stalled
across the region tonight with the upper level pattern
continuing to bring a moist southerly flow across the area.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight with
high PW values and very efficient rainfall rates continuing to
bring an elevated flash flood threat, especially as the ground
becomes increasingly saturated. The flood watch continues
through this evening for all but Ocracoke and Hatteras Island.
Guidance showing the heavier rain shifting toward the coast late
tonight but the OBX has not seen the amount of rainfall as
inland so far and leading to a lower threat of flash flooding.
Will let later shifts evaluate the evolution of precip today and
determine if the Flood Watch should be extended.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Key Messages:
-Rain continues Saturday possibly lingering into Sunday, heavy
 at times with localized flooding possible. Severe threat
 remains relatively low at this time.

-Warm and humid conditions continue. Sunday through Wednesday
 heat indices of 105-110 degrees are possible each day.
 Tuesday expected to be the hottest day. Some relief for the end
 of the week.

Rain chances will continue into Sunday with QPF values expected to
be less that the previous days. That being said, antecedent
conditions will play a key role in determining how much of a flood
threat remains on Saturday. The Bermuda High will shift slightly
eastward allowing eastern areas of the forecast area to be more
likely to receive rain than the western areas that received the bulk
of the rain to this point. This eastward shift will continue on
Sunday and most of the forecast area will be relatively dry with
convection along the immediate coast and offshore. Otherwise a
fairly zonal and stagnant upper patter will allow the seabreeze to
control most of the convective initiation for Sunday.

Beginning early next week extreme heat will become the biggest
threat in the forecast. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid
90s inland with upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Heat index
values will push or exceed 105 degrees each day in most locations
except the extreme coastal areas. At this point, Tuesday looks like
the hottest day with heat index values approaching 110 degrees which
is excessive heat warning criteria.

A fair amount of uncertainty is introduced into the forecast for
Thursday with regard to a frontal system extending southward from a
low pressure system over eastern Canada. While the GFS solution is
more progressive with this system, the ECMWF holds it to the north
for another day. The upshot is it will likely be cloudier and
slightly cooler on Thursday than earlier days in the week with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Very moist southerly flow will continue
across rtes through the short term with numerous showers and
thunderstorms bringing heavy rainfall across rtes. Presently
seeing a mix of MVFR and VFR across rtes but pred MVFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period with periods of
IFR in heavier storms. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kt can be
expected across inland rtes this afternoon and 20-30 kt along
the coast though tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...On Saturday expect periods of sub VFR
with continued shower activity. Precipitation will affect
ceilings and visibilities during the heaviest rainfall and
overnight periods. Rain is expected to continue through Saturday
and possibly into Sunday before tapering off early next week.
Thunderstorms are also possible during this time, particularly
in the afternoons but severe weather is unlikely. Winds will
keep a southerly component at 5-10 knots gusting to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Friday...High pressure remains centered across the
western Atlantic with a stall front across the Carolina coastal
plain and an area of low pressure off the SC/GA coast. The low
will lift northward along the front and weaken through tonight.
Tightened pressure gradients between these features is bringing
southerly winds around 15-25 kt and seas around 5-8 ft which
will continue through the short term and continue the Small
Craft Advisory across most of the waters. The exception is the
Alligator River and Albemarle Sound where guidance keeps winds
just below criteria except this afternoon where a few gusts may
approach 25 kt. Guidance also showing the mouth of the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers with frequent gusts around 25 kt through this
evening but has yet to materialize despite much of the Pamlico
Sound gusting around 25-30 kt. Will continue to monitor but may
drop the SCA for this area if winds continue to under perform
here.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Small craft conditions will likely
continue across the central and southern waters through Saturday
afternoon and early evening with wind gusts approaching 25 kts
and seas near 6 ft. Waves and winds will relax for Sunday and
into next week. Winds will maintain a southerly component
through the period with magnitudes of 10-15 kts gusting to 20
kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 AM Friday...Despite high flash flood guidance values
(3-5") across much of ENC, intense rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr
have been overcoming the dry soils of late, leading to increased
runoff and flood/flash flooding impacts. This has especially
been the case in urban areas where dry soils have less of an
impact. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening
for much of ENC. This may need to be adjusted in time and area
depending on how conditions evolve over the next 24-36 hours.
Ensemble guidance shows additional rainfall amounts of 2-4"
through Saturday night with the bulk falling through tonight.
However, several CAMs showing amounts as high as 7-10" where
rainfall is the most persistent and training of thunderstorms
occur.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/SK
MARINE...RTE/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX