534
FXUS62 KMHX 150219
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1019 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices in
excess of 105 degrees last into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM Sun...Storms managed to hold on a bit longer than
expected, but activity has ebbed considerably in the last hour
and will continue to do so as temperatures fall. Dry conditions
will prevail by midnight.

Tonight will be warm and muggy yet again, with lows in the mid
70s inland, near 80 for beaches. Heat indices overnight will
remain elevated along the coast, sitting between 85-90. Signal
for fog has become much more muddled since the previous
forecast, and although some patchy instances cannot be ruled out
confidence is too low to explicitly mention in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Another hot and humid day in store,
likely a few degrees warmer than what was experienced today as
heat indices flirt with 110 degrees. Heat advisory has been
issued for the entire CWA outside of coastal Dare and Hyde
counties where indices are in the 100-105 range. Another day of
high PWATs and ample instability will promote scattered showers
along the sea breeze, but just like today limited shear will
result in a low severe risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sun...First part of the long term will be highlighted
by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat indices
between 105-115 degrees through mid week. Then, a cold front
moves into the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and
storms Wednesday into the end of the week.

Monday night through Tuesday...Extreme heat will become the
biggest threat for the beginning of the work week. Highs will be
in the mid to some upper 90s interior, with around 90 coast.
These temps combined with dewpoints between 75-80 will lead to
dangerously high heat indices, with advisory criteria likely
being met, though several hours of 110-115 degrees (excessive
heat warning criteria) are possible as well.

Wednesday through Saturday...More certainty for the back end of
the week than last night at this time as 14/00Z model suite
settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid
through late week. PW values return to ~2.25" or higher on
Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the
weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability
will be high Wed through Fri (2000-4000 J/Kg), but shear very
weak, so biggest threat from storms that develop will be wet
microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The
good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end
to the dangerously high heat indices. Pops peak on Thu in the
60% range, and capped at 50% for Fri into the weekend until
mesoscale details become more clear, though it does appear pops
will be above climo into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Tues/...
As of 745 PM Sun...VFR conditions prevail across the region
this evening with an ongoing cluster of convection mainly north
and east of OCW, which will shift towards OBX over the next hour
or so before collapsing with loss of heating. Cells have had a
history of producing gusts to 35-40 kt.

VFR conditions continue overnight. Signal for fog tonight is
muddled, with slightly higher probabilities for OAJ given their
preponderance for overnight visibility issues. In such a humid
airmass some very isolated patchy fog would seem to be favored,
but impacts will likely be minimal and opted to keep out of TAFs
this cycle.

Monday sees another classic summer pattern with developing
convection in the afternoon. All terminals are at some risk, but
highest probabilities of storms are south and west of KOCW. Like
today, some storms could produce very heavy rainfall and gusts
approaching 35-40 kt.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...Mostly VFR through the period. Diurnal showers
and storms for Mon and Tue, become more numerous Wed through
the end of the week. Exceptions to this could be with overnight
fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts through
much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
As of 345 PM Sunday...Generally quiet marine conditions persist
through the short term. Seas are currently 2-4 feet, becoming
3-4 Monday afternoon. Winds are currently coming from the SW at
10-15 kts, but will pick up tomorrow afternoon/evening, gusting
to 20-25 kts at times for coastal waters and the
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Probability of gusts in excess
of 25 knots remains low for Monday evening, and as a result have
not issued a SCA with this update.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...Fairly quiet start to the long term for Marine
conditions with southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20
kts. Thermal gradient could bring some 25+ kt winds for the
favored areas (Oregon Inlet/Croatan-Roanoke-Pamlico Sounds and
Alligator River) by Tuesday afternoon and evening. For the
coastal waters seas should remain between 3-4 feet through much
of the long term before rising to 5 feet by midweek. Rain and
storm chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/RJ